Friday, September 18, 2015

FanDuel Roundtable

Every week a group of Footballguys staffers come together to discuss a number of topics related to playing in NFL contests at FanDuel. Various perspectives are provided, therefore, on a range of issues -- covering both general strategy and specific players under consideration for that week.

Below is a brief sample from this week's Roundtable. To read the whole thing, go here (subscriber only).

THIS WEEK'S TIGHT ENDS

At tight end, Rob Gronkowski is arguably always a good value. But there are a lot of tight ends who are at least $2,000 cheaper and look pretty enticing. Who are some tight ends that stand out as being good values this week?
Steve Buzzard: I agree there are a lot of great deals at the tight end position this week and I think it makes sense to save money and go against Gronkowski this week which will allow you to pay up for guys at other positions. Some of my favorite cheaper plays at tight end this week are Jordan Reed, Heath Miller, and Greg Olsen. Reed should see a steady increase of targets due to the injury to DeSean Jackson. Heath Miller was heavily targeted in the opening weekend and for his price you can't find much better consistency. Finally, Greg Olsen let a lot of people down in Week 1, but don't let short term results affect your decisions.

Sunday Staff Cash Plays - FanDuel Week 2

Roaring into Sunday's slate of games, there are a lot of roster situations that bear watching - examples include: Mike Evans was limited in practice Thursday, as was LeSean McCoy. T.Y. Hilton is a game time decision this week - Reggie Bush sat out of Thursday's session , as did Delanie Walker. On the flip side of the coin, Michael Floyd, Matthew Stafford and Jonathan Stewart all practiced fully on Thursday. As always, Dr. Jene Bramel's Second Opinion Columns and Craig Zumsteg's Week Two Injury Report Insight column are required reading for DFS players, and cover the full spectrum of injury situations that are playing out in practices this week.

Looking at the FanDuel Sunday Cash Games lineups: (scroll down past the Thursday material), there are several Staff Trends to note.

Stacks are Back

For Sunday there are several Footballguys going with QB/WR stacks  - Sam Bradford ($7,500) to Jordan Matthews ($7,000)  is featured on three staff lineups, while Jason Wood is going with Drew Brees ($8,900) to Brandin Cooks ($7,400) this week -  all told, Bradford is the QB of choice for five staffers and Matthews shows up in six lineups in total.

Running Back Concordance/Discordance

Mark Ingram ($8,000) is included on three of 15 lineups; Ameer Abdullah ($6,400), five; Bishop Sankey ($6,500), five; Matt Forte ($8,900), six; and Carlos Hyde ($7,000), four. As you can see, there is a favored back at many different price points.

Despite their solid Week One performances, Chris Ivory ($6,900) and Jeremy Hill ($8,400) only made one staff lineup each this week.  As Andrew Garda highlighted in Thursday Staff Cash Plays - Adrian Peterson made nobody's short list this week. His $9,000 price point behind that patchwork line put everyone off the Minnesota rushing attack.

Hocker and Brown consensus PK picks

Zach Hocker, (NO - $4,500) and Josh Brown (NYG - $4,500) are the favored low-cost kickers this week - Hocker has five staffers starting him while Brown is in on three staff lineups. Keep an eye on the wind conditions in MetLife Stadium before you start Brown, though - winds are forecast to be around 13 MPH on Sunday and they can be swirling and unpredictable in this New Jersey venue. Hocker is indoors in the Louisiana Superdome - weather isn't a worry for him.


Good luck this weekend, everyone! Enjoy the full slate of games! - MPW



Weekly FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 2 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.


FanDuel Week 2 Starting Stacks

I just posted my FanDuel stacks of the week, covering less common stacks, defensive stacks, and twists on highly-owned stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

ANDY DALTON ($6,900) + TYLER EIFERT ($5,900) = $12,800

Eifert's two-touchdown performance will make him a popular pick on his own, but I don't foresee many owners stacking him with Dalton. The game has a low enough Vegas total to fly under the radar, but the 25-point Bengals projection still cracks the top 10. Most DFS players looking for a Cincinnati stack will abort the idea when they realize an A.J. Green ($8,100) stack will run them $15,000.



Early FanDuel Ownership Highlights

With the Thursday Night lock in the rearview mirror for Week 2, here are notable highly-owned, and lightly-owned players:

Quarterback

25% Drew Brees: A huge rebound candidate at home against the Tampa Bay defense who made Marcus Mariota look like a league MVP candidate.

2% Eli Manning: Another quarterback coming off a ho-hum Week 1, but with an outstanding matchup this week against Atlanta. A worthy stack candidate with Odell Beckham Jr.

Running Back

33% Carlos Hyde: The benefit of frozen prices for Monday Night players the week before is Carlos Hyde at $7,000 once again for Week 2. The Steelers could not stop Dion Lewis last week and Hyde is running hot.

1% Frank Gore: The Colts run game looked solid, but the volume was minimal as Buffalo got on top of them early last week. Gore is a quality bounce-back bet as the Colts favorites, at home, against the Jets.

Wide Receiver

37% Julio Jones: The second half was average for Jones, but the stud had an entire game's worth of production in the opening 30 minutes. The Giants have holes in the secondary and Atlanta has few options in the passing game to challenge Jones for targets.

2% Roddy White: Instead of Julio Jones, owners can roll out White (who looked great in Week 1, but did not find the end zone) for $1,400 less as a sparsely-owned tournament play. Stacking with Matt Ryan makes plenty of sense against the Giants.

Tight End

15% Jason Witten: Without Dez Bryant, Witten stands to benefit and at $6,000 is affordable against the Eagles in a projected shootout.

3% Heath Miller: This was one of the most surprising ownership rates from Thursday Night locking contests. Miller is the Jason Witten of the AFC with Antonio Brown and not much else in the Pittsburgh passing game for Week 2. Miller is a high floor option and $400 less than Witten.

Kicker

14% Josh Brown: Giants have a high over-under and Brown is minimally-priced at $4,500.

2% Cody Parkey: The Eagles are the top-scoring offense by the projections for Week 2. The $5,000 price point is not ideal, but creates smart variance for tournament play.

Defense

17% Rams: Washington looks like a trainwreck on offense and lost DeSean Jackson. The Rams should force consistent pressure and plenty of turnover opportunities from the always-generous Kirk Cousins.

6% Saints: Jameis Winston floundered in his home opener last week. Now, he sees a tough home environment in New Orleans against a defense heavy on blitz concepts. In a projected victory, the Saints defense is a strong rebound play with light ownership.


Week 2 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 2 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, predict ownership percentages, and make their bold picks of the week. Is it time to fade Rob Gronkowski? Chris Ivory, Adrian Peterson, Carlos Hyde, and more!

You can watch this week's episode on-demand or download the audio version to listen on the go.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 2

With Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season in the books, we hope you were able to turn our advice into a nice bankroll to work the rest of the year with. If you ran into a pothole, don’t sweat it though – there is a whole lot of ballgame left as they say.

As always, we’re looking at the staff picks leading up to Week 2, which you can check out in full here.

Staff Trends

Hamstring, Shmamstring

Out of a dozen staffers who are logged this week all but one is rolling with Julio Jones, despite the hamstring issue. And well we should, given that he faces a pretty bad New York Giants secondary and defense. With 141 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week though, you can bet a lot of owners are going to jump on him, so the key will be to find value elsewhere.

Brown about Town
The other widely owned receiver is Pittsburgh Steeler Antonio Brown. Like Jones, he had a big Week 1 (133 yards and a score) but unlike Jones he has a legitimate hard matchup against San Francisco. Mind you, he can overcome the coverage they throw his way, but we’re somewhat concernd about that offensive line, a lack of which allowed the 49ers to destroy Teddy Bridgewater last week. Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback though, so many of the staff aren’t worried.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins versus Mike Evans

So far Mike Evans hasn’t warned many staff off the value Austin Seferian-Jenkins represents. Even if Evans plays, there’s a chance it will take a week or two to get back into the rhythm of the offense with rookie Jameis Winston. While Seferian-Jenkins was a shakier play last week than he looks, we think Winston looks for him a bunch this week and the Saints pass defense isn’t fantastic. Six of the staff like him as a value play and he remains a nice one at that.

Glaring Omissions

No AD All Day

After a strong showing with Adrian Peterson last week, the staff bailed on him this week. The reason is probably two-fold. First, the offensive line is a dumpster fire. We can talk about teams missing Dez Bryant or Le’Veon Bell but losing Phil Loadholt and John Sullivan was disastrous last week. Secondly, he is not comfortable working out of the shotgun and he said as much according to the Star Tribune. Peterson will bounce back at some point but given his price-point of $9,000 everyone said, thanks but no thanks.


Diamonds in the Rough

Ameer Abdullah - $6,400

Abdullah may still be in a committee but truly, he is the better back and will get more touches. We expect a solid game against Minnesotsa this week and well worth the money.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins - $4,500
We’ve already talked him up, and we really like him and his chemistry with Winston.

Overall, you can see there is a ton of diversity among the staff, even if we have some players in common. That just goes to show that there are many ways to go and get value.


On a final note, many of us pulled Benny Cunningham out of our lineups this week. While Washington is an attractive opponent, Tre Mason could play this weekend and that would limit everyone’s effectiveness.

**an adjustment was made to some of the lineups which now have some nice stacks, so a section of the original article was removed - among the stacks now present are Bradford/Matthews and Brees/Cooks**