Showing posts with label daily fantasy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label daily fantasy. Show all posts

Friday, January 22, 2016

FanDuel Championship Weekend Starting Stacks

I just posted my Championship Weekend FanDuel stacks. It's my 20th and final stacks article of the season. And it's completely FREE! Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Cam Newton ($8,500) + Greg Olsen ($7,000) = $15,500

During their last five games, only two teams allowed tight ends to overperform more than the Cardinals. Cornerback Tyrann Mathieu's absence has left the middle of their defense vulnerable, and Olsen will be this week's beneficiary. This will be a popular pairing, but tight end isn't the position to find differentiation this week.

Twist: I like Ted Ginn Jr. ($6,200) or Devin Funchess ($5,100) in triple stacks. Funchess will be lower owned and is the better value, but you can decide based on how much money you spend at other positions.


Friday, January 15, 2016

FanDuel Divisional Round Starting Stacks

I just posted my Divisional Round FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Aaron Rodgers ($8,300) + James Jones ($6,500) = $14,800

I love stacking the team that the sportsbooks predict to be the highest-scoring underdog. Down early, the Packers will lean heavily on the Rodgers-to-Jones connection.

Twist: With Tyrann Mathieu out for the year, the middle of the field should theoretically be the Cardinals' Achilles’ heel. It didn't play out that way in the Week 16 matchup between these two teams, but I could still see Randall Cobb ($6,600) and Richard Rodgers ($5,100) exploiting this weakness if Aaron Rodgers gets going. I prefer Richard over Randall in a triple-stack. Over the last five games, the Cardinals have allowed tight ends to overperform by 42 percent in terms of fantasy scoring. That's the worst percentage of the eight playoff teams.

Shootout: All the info from the Cardinals' stack recommendation applies. Pair Michael Floyd ($6,500) with three Packers for an affordable super-stack.


Friday, January 8, 2016

FanDuel Wild Card Starting Stacks

I just posted my Wild Card FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

A.J. McCarron ($6,400) + A.J. Green ($8,300) = $14,700

Pittsburgh's pass defense makes for one of the best matchups on the slate. Unfortunately, Andy Dalton is unlikely to play. But that will lower ownership of the Bengals' AJs. Green will still see decent ownership, but rostering McCarron should help separate you from the field. Playing from behind at home in the game with the highest over-under is a recipie for fantasy success.

Twist: The Steelers play well against the tight end, so fading Tyler Eifert ($6,400) to play Marvin Jones ($5,500) is the shrewd fantasy owner's triple-stack.


Thursday, January 7, 2016

Staff Cash Plays for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL’s regular season might be over, but there are still games to be played at Fanduel. Wild Card Weekend is upon us and the Footballguys Staff has laid out their lineups for you to take a look at. Subscribers can check out all the lineups here, while I’ve cherry picked some things which are worth discussing more in depth.

Staff Trends

Chalk QB Plays

With less players to choose from at quarterback (just eight), the staff largely went with the more expensive plays. Russell Wilson ($8600) and Ben Roethlisberger ($8400) were the most common two. There were some AJ McCarron ($6400) and Kirk Cousins (YOU LIKE THAT AT $8000) but Cousins isn’t really cheap and is almost chalk in this matchup anyway.
Some positions give you more wiggle room with lighter slates than others. Quarterback is not those positions.

Nobody is taking chances in their cash lineups with Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer. Maybe in a GPP, where you are rewarded for uniqueness, but not in cash where you just need to beat 50% of the field and winning in the last spot and the top spot pays the same.

RB Wing and a Prayers

Interestingly, while I personally think there is almost as little wiggle room at running back as there is under center, a lot of the staff went the other way.

Granted, chalk at this position is Adrian Peterson and maybe Marshawn Lynch (if he plays), though an argument could be made for Charcandrick West.

But a lot of the staff took some chances. They grabbed either Jeremy Hill or Giovani Bernard (who are splitting carries), Pierre Thomas, Jonathan Grimes, Matt Jones and Alfred Morris.

It makes sense though, when you look at some of the choices they made at receiver. Many doubled up on Antonio Brown/DeAndre Hopkins or swapped one of the two for Jeremy Maclin. One staff member had all three.

Ultimately, I think either way is OK, and both have some risk. For myself, I tend to want stability in running backs this week and take a few more chances at receiver. I took Adrian Peterson and Charcandrick West (along with Russell Wilson and Tyler Eifert) and went with Doug Baldwin, James Jones and Pierre Garcon at receiver. I believe Baldwin will play and overpower Minnesota’s defense, and Garcon will do the same against Green Bay. Jones is my biggest long shot, as he is very touchdown dependent, but I also believe this will be a good week for him.

I found it interesting to see I was largely in the minority. While I won’t change it immediately, I do think seeing that will make me look closer at some of the matchups I have and see if I am missing something.

That’s always an important part for any fantasy matchup. Where am I deviating from the herd and is it a good or bad thing?

Diamonds in the Rough

Richard Rodgers ($5200) is an interesting choice. I actually think he’ll have a solid game, but he is very touchdown dependent and that makes him risky. On the other hand, aside from Jordan Reed and maybe Tyler Eifert, there are no sure things at tight end this week.

A few people went with James Jones ($5700) and a couple others are believing in Martavis Bryant ($6900). I suppose you either believe Bryant really took Ben Roethlisberger’s criticism to heart or you think he’ll blow it off. I didn’t go with him because I liked my three guys more, but I am in the camp that Bryant bounces back with a good game against the Bengals. He represents value this week.


I mentioned that AJ McCarron ($6400) got a start from the staff, and I can see the appeal since the Steelers defense is shaky. My problem is, the Bengals are not trying to have him do too much. He has only passed 200 yards once since taking over (280 in Week 14 – was right at 200 in Week 16) so while the Steelers defense can be vulnerable I don’t know that I think McCarron – in his first playoff start no less – is going to put up big numbers. Can he do just enough? Probably and he’s likely not to throw interceptions.  I’m not sure if I want the risk though.

As always, your mileage may vary.

Saturday, January 2, 2016

FanDuel Week 17 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 17 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

St Louis Rams ($4,600) + Tre Mason ($4,600) = $9,200

With Todd Gurley doubtful for Sunday's game at San Francisco, Tre Mason will step into the Rams' starting role. Over the last five weeks, the Niners have allowed a league-worst nine rushing touchdowns. Mason is only $100 over the running back minimum price and should be used heavily in all formats. The Rams defense is the best value at their position. They should have have no problem vexing a Niners team that has averaged less than 15 points per game and lost by an average of more than 10 points per game this year.


Friday, January 1, 2016

Week 17 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the SEASON FINALE Week 17 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Dan, John, and Austin send the show off with a bang by performing a group DubSmash and ending the season with a six-minute look back at all the zany lip sync videos they've made this season.


Saturday, December 26, 2015

FanDuel Week 16 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 16 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Tom Brady ($8,800) + Rob Gronkowski ($8,200) = $17,000

The Patroits' top duo is coming off of back-to-back games where they combined for less than 35 FanDuel points. Negative recency bias, relatively high prices, and a tough road matchup against the Jets will scare most people away. That's the perfect time to roster high-upside players in GPPs, hoping for a bounceback. There's plenty of value at other positions this week to create space for Brady and Gronkowski on your roster. Brady hasn't been this cheap since Week 5. And Gronkowski played well against the Jets with a 11/108/1 line back in Week 7. With Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman unlikely to play, Gronkowski will be highly-targeted again.

Twist: James White ($6,600) has 27 targets and two touchdowns in the last three games. He's a great combination of upside and value for a Patriots triple stack.

Shootout: Vegas' 45.5 point total for this game doesn't scream shootout. But so much of the Jets' offense flows through Brandon Marshall ($8,300) and Eric Decker ($7,600) that you'd be wise to add one of them to your New England stack. The Patriots tend to take away teams' greatest weapons. So much like Week 7, I expect the focus of New England's defense to be on Marshall. Decker is the better value.


Friday, December 25, 2015

Week 16 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 16 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. This week the Lee Brothers play a practical joke on Dan, who pays off his DubSmash bet with some fancy, finger-pointing dance moves.


Saturday, December 19, 2015

FanDuel Week 15 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 15 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Aaron Rodgers ($9,000) + Randall Cobb ($7,200) = $16,200

It's been a disappointing season for the Packers' offense, but we were saying the same thing about the Seahawks offense before they blew up in Week 11. Playing at Oakland seems like the perfect bounce-back spot for Green Bay. The Raiders have a solid rush defense and pass rush, which should force some quick passes to Cobb out of the slot. Rodgers high price and negative recency bias should kill his ownership percentage.

Twist: Richard Rodgers ($5,500) will be more heavily owned than Cobb and his quarterback, but he still probably won't crack the top five at his position. He rounds out a nice triple stack.

Shootout: Amari Cooper ($6,900) and Michael Crabtree ($6,700) are solid correlation plays in case of a shootout. I prefer Cooper.


Thursday, December 17, 2015

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 15

Once again we had a week where the loss of players—Andy Dalton, Greg Olsen, LeGarrette Blount, Thomas Rawls and Jonathan Stewart in particular—sank some lineups. Week 15 is here, so there is no time for the wicked to rest—the staff is back at work and has entered some lineups for your Thursday night perusal.

You can see all the staff picks here but I’ve cherry picked some of the selections I thought were interesting to discuss.

Staff Trends

Three Weeks with David Johnson

Johnson is in the majority of Thursday lineups again this week, even with the price up to $6500. The matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles is a good one with the Eagles giving fantasy running backs an average of 29.3 points per week during the last three games. As Chad Parsons points out in this week’s Value Article: “Johnson's price looks like a misprint for Week 15, a clear starting running back - with plenty of pass-catching upside - on a quality offense for cheap RB2 prices. 15 touches or more is his floor with multiple touchdown potential. Plugging Johnson into lineups this week is the easiest decision out there.” Until the price goes up, expect the staff to keep riding him.

Maximum Maclin

All six staff members have Jeremy Maclin in their lineups, and at $6700 against the woeful Baltimore Ravens pass defense, it’s no surprise. Alex Smith may not be Drew Brees when it comes to passing yards, but he does enough and Maclin should easily beat his somewhat disappointing numbers from last week. 80-100 yards and a touchdown on half a dozen or so catches would not be out of the question—solid production for a bargain price.

Megatron!

We know the Saints (normally) give up a lot of points and yards, while also scoring them. It’s a self-fulfilling circle of life—score a lot, get scored on a lot. Which means that the Lions are in a good place to score a ton of points this week and if they are scoring, Calvin Johnson is catching. The $8000 is a little steep, coming off two below-average games but that might also mean people will pass him by. It could be a good way to get points others will not be looking at. Deep threats get over on this defense—Calvin Johnson should add to that this week.

Diamonds in the Rough


Brandon Bolden ($5500) should get most of the work between the tackles against the Titans and while it’s actually not an easy matchup on the ground, he did well in limited snaps last week against Houston. 

At $7800, Matt Stafford might not seem a value until you remember how bad the Saints defense is. I love guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady but you save yourself a thousand or so going with Stafford or Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7800). Stafford has the prime matchup, but Fitz has been on a tear and is a worthy player with two weapons (Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker) who could be over 1,000 yards by the end of the year. Both Stafford and Fitzpatrick are quality starters who could be top fantasy quarterbacks this week.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Week 15 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 15 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. This week Austin pays off his DubSmash bet with a little dancing on the ceiling.


Saturday, December 12, 2015

FanDuel Week 14 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 14 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Andy Dalton ($8,200) + A.J. Green ($8,500) = $16,700

These Bengals aren't completely off of people's radar, but Dalton was outside the top five and Green was outside the top 10 in terms of ownership at their positions in Thursday contests. More DFS players are stacking Steelers, Jaguars, Jets, Giants, Bills, and Bucs this week, which creates an opportunity to buy into this mid-owned Bengals stack and separate yourself from the pack.

Shootout: Taking both sides of this likely shootout is a strong correlation play. Add Antonio Brown ($9,300) or Martavis Bryant ($7,400) to complete your Bengals super-stack.


Thursday, December 10, 2015

Week 14 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 14 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. This week we offer up a DOUBLE DubSmash bet as both Dan and John pay up.


Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 14

Week 15 is here and the Footballguys staff has put together some Thursday cash play lineups for FanDuel and we’ve picked out a few things that jumped out at us which we thought might be helpful.

You can see all the staff picks here to get the full view of who did what.

Staff Trends

“The Other Guys” at Quarterback

So far Thursday lineups feature all lower tier guys. Jameis Winston ($7800) leads the way with a couple of Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7800) starts and one Tyrod Taylor ($7500). All three are good value plays, where you get plenty of bang for your buck. Yes, you can spend more, but when you can spend less at quarterback and still get solid production, you should as it gives you the flexibility to go big elsewhere.

David Johnson again

He got some run last week and while his price went up, three staff members added him to their lineup. He’s almost the only player from Thursday night to get any nods, which is interesting given how consistent Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have been, as well as a matchup against a defense missing up to four starters. Johnson should get plenty of carries and have plenty of success against this depleted defensive front.

A Week for Top WRs

Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins all got starts in this grouping (sometimes more than one of them in the same lineup), as the staff took the money they saved at quarterback and plugged it in at receiver. While the price tags are higher, so is the production and all those players consistently put up big points. They are also probably all significantly owned and that’s fine—in cash games you don’t have to hit a home run—you just need to keep up with the crowd.

Sammy Watkins and Brandon Marshall are pretty strong plays as well.

Diamonds in the Rough

All the quarterbacks mentioned are values, as is Patriots tight end Scott Chandler ($5800) if Rob Gronkowski doesn’t play. As it stands, Gronkowski is practicing with a brace. As bad as the offense looked against the Eagles last week, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots are not pushing for him to play. The problem here is at Fanduel you cannot do late switches. So if Gronkowski plays, you’re hosed and have to pray Chandler gets a lot of run anyway.


Delanie Walker ($6100) should, as most tight ends do, find a lot of room to work against the Jets. At that price, it’s a pretty good bargain for what should likely be solid production.

Friday, December 4, 2015

FanDuel Week 13 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 13 FanDuel stacks. The entire article is FREE this week, just in time for your last shot at getting to the WFFC. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Marcus Mariota ($7,100) + Delanie Walker ($6,000) = $13,100

Mariota has been a pretty inconsistent fantasy scorer this season, but his upside is appealing for GPPs. According to my Normalized Strength of Schedule, Jacksonville has allowed quarterbacks to overperform by 22% over the last five weeks. And while Walker will likely be a top-three-owned tight end this week, Mariota was largely overlooked in Thursday contests.

Shootout: With Allen Hurns likely to miss this game, it will be hard not to add target-monster Allen Robinson ($8,000) to Titans stacks as a positive correlation play.


Week 13 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 13 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week.


Friday, November 27, 2015

FanDuel Week 12 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 12 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Kansas City Chiefs ($4,500) + Spencer Ware ($6,100) = $10,600

The Chiefs are the chalk play at defense this week, hosting the Bills at Arrowhead. The Bills offense has regressed, and Tyrod Taylor is banged up. The Chiefs are on a four-game winning streak and haven't allowed 19 points in a game since Week 4. Running backs have overperformed fantasy-wise by 35 percent against the Bills over the past five weeks. As of Thursday night, it seems unlikely that Charcandrick West will play, making this a no-brainer pairing of cheap, chalky goodness.


Thursday, November 26, 2015

Week 12 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 12 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss Austin's lip-sync tribute to Alanis Morissette and find out why his DubSmash loss was so "Ironic."


Friday, November 20, 2015

FanDuel Week 11 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 11 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Alex Smith ($6,200) + Travis Kelce ($5,700) = $11,900

If you're looking to cram other high-priced players into your lineup, this is the best value stack of the week. The Chiefs are three-point favorites on the road in San Diego. And the Chargers have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games.

Twist: Jeremy Maclin ($6,300) is also a cheap alternative, but I prefer sticking with just Kelce and doubling down on the possibility of a shootout by adding cheap Chargers pass-catchers.

Shootout: I can easily imagine this game getting out of hand, and Steve Johnson ($5,600) is a fantastic value in all formats with Keenan Allen out and Ladarius Green and Malcom Floyd banged up. I'm less excited about Antonio Gates ($5,900) because of the plethora of injuries he's battling and Kansas City's strong linebacking corps.


Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Week 11 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 11 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss John Lee's "Stayin' Alive" lip sync video paying off last week's DubSmash bet. Those are some sweet dance moves.