The Week 9 ownership data is in from the Thursday night contests. From consensus plays to low-owned options, here are a few highlights at FanDuel:
Tom Brady has been close to automatic this season and now gets struggling Washington as two-touchdown favorites in Foxboro. Brady's salary matches the projections at a gaudy $9,500 this week, but he still leads the position in ownership at more than 15%. Drew Brees and Eli Manning, coming off their historic shootout last week, round out the top-3 with optimistic passing matchups against Tennessee (in New Orleans) and Tampa Bay (on the road) respectively.
Big Roethlisberger is surprisingly low at 5% early ownership. He is a prime bounce-back candidate returning home with a game under his belt -- a humbling loss -- since returning from injury. The Steelers have a top-5 team total and Roethlisberger has been pedestrian in his last two games. Jameis Winston at $6,700 against the porous Giants defense in Tampa Bay, especially stacked with Mike Evans, is a quality play in tournaments at 4% ownership.
Benjamin Watson creates his own tier this week at 17% after a career day against the Giants. At $5,700 Watson is cap friendly and the Saints are at home. Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) and Antonio Gates ($6,000) round out the top-3, both over 10% early ownership. Gates is the best combination of ownership and Footballguys projections with Ladarius Green on the mend and Keenan Allen out against Chicago.
Martellus Bennett is on a similar dry spell with the end zone as Demaryius Thomas, Bennett has a single score over his last 32 receptions with San Diego being a positive matchup this week plus 3% ownership.
To catch the rest of the article, plus example cash and tournament lineups for Week 9, find the full post at Footballguys.com.
New to DFS? Want to go from fish to piranha and take down a shark? This is the place for you.
Friday, November 6, 2015
Friday Staff Cash Plays
I hope that this week has less injuries than we saw last week - top DFS players went down like flies during the eighth round of regular season games. Knock on wood... Check on the latest status of guys on the borderline of playing/sitting by reading up on Dr. Jene Bramel's injury coverage HERE.
This week the Footballguys.com Staff has selected nine Sunday lineups as of this writing - you can see all of the selections here, which may include other lineups added since this post went live.
The Oakland/Pittsburgh matchup is creating interest on the staff - seven of the nine lineups have at least one wide receiver from that game included for Sunday, with three staffers investing two of their three wide receiver picks in players from that one game. Most selected: Michael Crabtree (five times @ $5,800); Antonio Brown (three times at $8,700). Crabtree and Brown were paired up by two of the staffers.
Despite the wide interest in the receivers playing in the game, only two of the nine lineups have a quarterback from that contest - Derek Carr ($7,000) and Ben Roethlisberger ($8,300) appear once each.
The Freeman/Ingram axis - the staff loves Devonta Freeman against the shattered Santa Clara 49ers - eight of the nine teams have him in despite Freeman's $8,900 price tag. Mark Ingram appears three times at $7,700, popular now that short-yardage/goal-line vulture Khiry Robinson is out for the season, and is paired with Freeman in each case.
The heavy concentration of Freeman has led to several teams rostering "bargain" receivers who appear under-priced - prominent are Michael Crabtree ($5,800) and Stevie Johnson ($5,400) as my colleague Andrew Garda pointed out in his Thursday Cash Plays blog post, but we also see Martavis Bryant ($6,900) and Mike Evans ($7,500) as some mid-priced plays to balance out the high cost of owning Freeman this week.
Do the Lambo - Josh Lambo is favored as a "bargain" kicker this week, appearing on two Sunday lineups at $4,700, while four teams opted to go "premium" at place kicker and sprang for Stephen Gostkowski at $5,200 when he faces the visitors from Washington at Gillette Stadium.
Good Luck this weekend, all Y'all!
This week the Footballguys.com Staff has selected nine Sunday lineups as of this writing - you can see all of the selections here, which may include other lineups added since this post went live.
The Oakland/Pittsburgh matchup is creating interest on the staff - seven of the nine lineups have at least one wide receiver from that game included for Sunday, with three staffers investing two of their three wide receiver picks in players from that one game. Most selected: Michael Crabtree (five times @ $5,800); Antonio Brown (three times at $8,700). Crabtree and Brown were paired up by two of the staffers.
Despite the wide interest in the receivers playing in the game, only two of the nine lineups have a quarterback from that contest - Derek Carr ($7,000) and Ben Roethlisberger ($8,300) appear once each.
The Freeman/Ingram axis - the staff loves Devonta Freeman against the shattered Santa Clara 49ers - eight of the nine teams have him in despite Freeman's $8,900 price tag. Mark Ingram appears three times at $7,700, popular now that short-yardage/goal-line vulture Khiry Robinson is out for the season, and is paired with Freeman in each case.
The heavy concentration of Freeman has led to several teams rostering "bargain" receivers who appear under-priced - prominent are Michael Crabtree ($5,800) and Stevie Johnson ($5,400) as my colleague Andrew Garda pointed out in his Thursday Cash Plays blog post, but we also see Martavis Bryant ($6,900) and Mike Evans ($7,500) as some mid-priced plays to balance out the high cost of owning Freeman this week.
Do the Lambo - Josh Lambo is favored as a "bargain" kicker this week, appearing on two Sunday lineups at $4,700, while four teams opted to go "premium" at place kicker and sprang for Stephen Gostkowski at $5,200 when he faces the visitors from Washington at Gillette Stadium.
Good Luck this weekend, all Y'all!
Week 9 FanDuel Show on The Audible
Check out the Week 9 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.
Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.
FanDuel Week 9 Starting Stacks
I just posted my Week 9 FanDuel stacks, and the article is FREE this week. I cover less common stacks, defensive stacks, and twists on highly-owned stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.
Derek Carr ($7,000) + Amari Cooper ($7,300) = $14,300
Carr and Cooper would need 42.9 points to hit 3x tournament value in Pittsburgh this week. They've crossed that mark twice in seven games. I expect the Steelers to get their scoring mojo back this week, creating strong shootout potential.
Twist: Most of Oakland's offense runs through Cooper and Michael Crabtree ($5,800). Either or both are solid options against a week Steelers secondary.
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 9
We’re about to enter the throes of Week 9 of the NFL
and Fantasy Football season, and at this point should have a good sense of
where all the various players we have examined sit.
Or we did until about half of them got hurt last
weekend. At least, it seemed like half of them got hurt, though the biggest and
most immediate player to end up on Injured Reserve was Le’Veon Bell. We also
lost Steve Smith, lost Keenan Allen, the Miami Dolphins defense lost Cameron
Wake and Colin Kaepernick got benched.
They like to keep us on our toes, the NFL does.
The Footballguys staff shook all that off and got
right back to work though. They’ve compiled their Thursday cash picks for you
and I’ve pulled out some of the choice bits worthy of discussion. You can find all
the lineups here.
Staff
Trends
Heavy on the Brady
Normally we’re talking about the lack of top
quarterbacks getting use on a Thursday lineup but not today, as Tom Brady was
in four out of ten lineups. The matchup is choice of course, as Washington
continues to have issues and while the $9500 price is a bit steep, he’s close
to a sure thing at this point. We’d also point out that the Interactive Value
Chart loves him (link
for subscribers) and while there are strong values elsewhere at
quarterback, the price/value combo is worth a look.
Alshon Abounds
Eight out of ten staff members added Alshon Jeffery
into their lineups. That’s a pretty string statement of support. Jeffery is
facing a banged up Chargers defense, potentially without Eric Weddle and it’s vulnerable.
$7900 isn’t cheap but for a guy who could put up WR1 numbers, it’s worth it. As
Chad Parsons points out in the
Value article, “Alshon Jeffery has seen 11, 11, and 15 targets
in his three games this season. The Bears have an optimistic matchup against
San Diego and Jeffery, outside of Martellus Bennett, is the only weapon of note
in Chicago's passing game.”
Crabtree
You know who got as much love as Alshon? Michael
Crabtree. He’s had more targets than Amari Cooper so far and with the rookie
getting plenty of attention, he’s taking advantage of single coverage and
matchup advantages. At $5800 he’s a good bargain and against a poor Steelers
defense I can see the appeal. For myself I went with Cooper, as there isn’t
anyone to stop him in the Steelers secondary, but Crabtree is equally
appealing.
Glaring
Omissions
I’m a little surprised at the lack of Todd Gurley,
who has high value and a solid matchup, but the $9000 is turning people off.
Also, while Brady got some love, everyone is fading Rob Gronkowski. At
$8500, he’s $1900 more than the next guy up, Gary Barnidge. Antonio
Gates ($6000), Greg Olsen ($6400) and Barnidge are all as appealing
for a lot less money.
Diamonds
in the Rough
Darren
McFadden is getting some love with Joseph Randle released.
He seems to be healthy (a rarity) and is proving to be quite the workhorse
behind a great offensive line and at $6500 he is a nice value in a solid
matchup against the Eagles.
We also liked Steve Johnson as Allen is now on
injured reserve. Johnson did leave the Week 8 game with a shoulder injury, but
his $5400 salary and the lack of Allen could put Johnson in line for some big
production. In the
Value article, Danny Tuccitto said that “given his salary and projected
points, Johnson has a 55.4% chance of achieving cash game value, which ranks third
among wide receivers.”
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Week 9 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show
Be sure to check out the Week 9 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss Austin Lee's lip sync video paying off last week's DubSmash bet. He bet against Drew Brees, and it felt like the end of the world as we know it.
You can watch this week's episode on-demand or download the audio version to listen on the go.
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
FanDuel Mid-Week CFB Slate Writeup Tuesday-Thursday
As we move toward the end of the season, college football becomes non-stop. Over the next few weeks, you are going to continue to see more and more games that are on non-typical college football days. This week is the start of that as we have one game on Tuesday, one game on Wednesday and six games on Thursday. While the Thursday slate is not unusual, the Tuesday-Thursday slate is definitely intriguing. We are going to have our full slate write-ups on the FanDuel landing page on Footballguys.com, but below is an abridged version of top stacks, player rankings, and value plays.
Top Stacks-
1) Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis- These two are the cream of the crop when it comes to college football this season. Matt Johnson has thrown for 300+ yards in every start this year, and is in a good position to do it again as while the matchup is difficult on paper, this is not the most difficult matchup that Bowling Green has had this season, and Johnson has shown that he is matchup proof.
2) Zach Terrell and Daniel Braverman- Zach Terrell and Braverman let everyone down last week, so if you played them, don't let that yourself fall into recency bias. Daniel Braverman has been one of the best receivers in the country so far this season. Ball State has one of the worst pass defenses in the country having allowed 293 yards passing per game. This is one of the safer stacks on the day, and can allow you to pivot off of
3) Jarrett Stidham and Corey Coleman- The Seth Russell injury was one of the most disappointing injuries this season, as he was on pace to have an outstanding year. Meanwhile his relationship with Coleman was something that was going to test the touchdown record this season. In comes Freshman Jarrett Stidham, and most of his work so far has been when the game is out of hand. There is significant risk in this stack, as we just don't know who Jarrett Stidham is. Having watched about all the high school film on him as we could, he loves the check down throws to running backs and quick slants over the middle. If Seth Russell was playing quarterback, this would be a no brainer as the matchup is a good one, but due to the uncertainty when there are two elite options we are recommending that you go with the MAC players this week.
QB Rankings-
1) Matt Johnson- One of the elite quarterbacks in college football having thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season
2) Zach Terrell- Should rebound nicely this week, as the matchup is ideal as Ball State has allowed 293 yards passing per game.
3) Jarrett Stidham- Freshman quarterback in an ideal offense. There is risk here is that this game gets out of hand quickly due to a rushing touchdown, and they just win the game on the ground.
4) Dak Prescott- Tough matchup for Dak this week as Missouri has only allowed 161 yards passing per game.
5) Taylor Lamb- Arkansas State has allowed 253 yards passing per game. Taylor Lamb has largely been inconsistent this season, but provides a nice contrarian GPP option due to the matchup and his running ability.
RB Rankings-
1) Joel Bouagnon- 22+ points in each of his last four games
2) Shock Linwood- 27 carries last week and should be heavily leaned on with a Freshman quarterback.
3) James Butler- Fresno State is 118th against the run allowing 239 yards rushing per game, Butler is risky, but provides a nice value as an RB2 this slate. He has rushed over 100 yards in four of the last six games, so there is some volatility there, but he will not be in a better matchup all season.
4) Jordan Johnson (If Anthone Taylor is out)- With Taylor out, Johnson has had 28 carries in each of his last two games with two touchdowns in each of the games.
5) Marcus Cox- He has seen some of the most consistent volume on this slate as he had 30 carries last week. The matchup is not an ideal one as Arkansas State has only allowed 150 yards per game rushing, and Cox has only scored a touchdown in four games this season.
6) Marteze Waller- Waller has largely been inconsistent this season, as he has only broken 100 yards twice, but is in a good matchup and has the ability to break a long run like we saw in 2014.
7) Travis Greene- Good value play as he continues to try to improve his health and get back to being the running back he was last season.
WR Rankings-
1) Roger Lewis- Lewis might be the best wide receiver in college football. In six of the last seven games, Lewis has gone over 100 yards with a touchdown. He has three games this season with 200+ yards. He is an elite option this week.
2) Corey Coleman- It feels wrong to put Corey Coleman as the number two option on this slate, as he is averaging 2.5 touchdowns per game this season. However, the Jarrett Stidham quarterback change has us slightly concerned as previously mentioned. We are really splitting hairs here as both him and Roger Lewis are great plays, Lewis gets the slight edge due to not having his situation change and he will be under-owned compared to Coleman.
3) Daniel Braverman- As previously mentioned, Braverman is in an excellent matchup, and provides some nice salary relief from Coleman or Lewis.
4) Corey Davis- Corey Davis is underpriced this week in what is the best matchup on the season. He is a great start this week, as he continues to work back to 2014 form after a slow start.
5) Kenny Golladay- Kenny Golladay is another wide receiver who is under-priced at $5,800 this week. While he is more of a safe option, he provides nice value with four straight games at 6 receptions.
6) Corey Jones- The 5'9 Corey Jones has shown significant improvement as we have seen Phillip Ely play much better over the past few weeks. Jones has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and provides a nice value play at $5,600.
7) Cody Thompson- Cody is overpriced in this situation, but still should be considered for GPP's, as he is averaging 22 yards per reception, so all it takes is two long receptions to pay off his value.
8) Ryan Burbrink- There are other wide receivers who are better talents this week, and may score more points, but this is a value play as at $5,500, Burbrink has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and gets to play with our number one quarterback on the slate. He presents an excellent value if for some reason you do not pay up for Roger Lewis.
TE Rankings-
1) Matt Weiser- Weiser has 39 receptions at the tight end position which is one of the highest in the country. While he hasn't scored a lot of touchdowns this year, he is the safest option on the board due to his reception volume. Weiser is the premiere option in cash games, and if he finds the end zone could pay off huge dividends.
2) Jarred Gipson- Gipson is the exact opposite of Weiser, as he has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, but only has 15 receptions so far this year which makes him a lot more volatile as he becomes more touchdown dependent.
3) Michael Roberts- Roberts has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, and while he only has 13 receptions to his credit, he provides a nice value option this week.
4) Keith Heitzman- Heitzman has largely done nothing this year until last week where he had a monster game of six receptions for 83 yards. Heitzman is by far the most risky option on this slate, and should not be considered for cash games.
Top Stacks-
1) Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis- These two are the cream of the crop when it comes to college football this season. Matt Johnson has thrown for 300+ yards in every start this year, and is in a good position to do it again as while the matchup is difficult on paper, this is not the most difficult matchup that Bowling Green has had this season, and Johnson has shown that he is matchup proof.
2) Zach Terrell and Daniel Braverman- Zach Terrell and Braverman let everyone down last week, so if you played them, don't let that yourself fall into recency bias. Daniel Braverman has been one of the best receivers in the country so far this season. Ball State has one of the worst pass defenses in the country having allowed 293 yards passing per game. This is one of the safer stacks on the day, and can allow you to pivot off of
3) Jarrett Stidham and Corey Coleman- The Seth Russell injury was one of the most disappointing injuries this season, as he was on pace to have an outstanding year. Meanwhile his relationship with Coleman was something that was going to test the touchdown record this season. In comes Freshman Jarrett Stidham, and most of his work so far has been when the game is out of hand. There is significant risk in this stack, as we just don't know who Jarrett Stidham is. Having watched about all the high school film on him as we could, he loves the check down throws to running backs and quick slants over the middle. If Seth Russell was playing quarterback, this would be a no brainer as the matchup is a good one, but due to the uncertainty when there are two elite options we are recommending that you go with the MAC players this week.
QB Rankings-
1) Matt Johnson- One of the elite quarterbacks in college football having thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season
2) Zach Terrell- Should rebound nicely this week, as the matchup is ideal as Ball State has allowed 293 yards passing per game.
3) Jarrett Stidham- Freshman quarterback in an ideal offense. There is risk here is that this game gets out of hand quickly due to a rushing touchdown, and they just win the game on the ground.
4) Dak Prescott- Tough matchup for Dak this week as Missouri has only allowed 161 yards passing per game.
5) Taylor Lamb- Arkansas State has allowed 253 yards passing per game. Taylor Lamb has largely been inconsistent this season, but provides a nice contrarian GPP option due to the matchup and his running ability.
RB Rankings-
1) Joel Bouagnon- 22+ points in each of his last four games
2) Shock Linwood- 27 carries last week and should be heavily leaned on with a Freshman quarterback.
3) James Butler- Fresno State is 118th against the run allowing 239 yards rushing per game, Butler is risky, but provides a nice value as an RB2 this slate. He has rushed over 100 yards in four of the last six games, so there is some volatility there, but he will not be in a better matchup all season.
4) Jordan Johnson (If Anthone Taylor is out)- With Taylor out, Johnson has had 28 carries in each of his last two games with two touchdowns in each of the games.
5) Marcus Cox- He has seen some of the most consistent volume on this slate as he had 30 carries last week. The matchup is not an ideal one as Arkansas State has only allowed 150 yards per game rushing, and Cox has only scored a touchdown in four games this season.
6) Marteze Waller- Waller has largely been inconsistent this season, as he has only broken 100 yards twice, but is in a good matchup and has the ability to break a long run like we saw in 2014.
7) Travis Greene- Good value play as he continues to try to improve his health and get back to being the running back he was last season.
WR Rankings-
1) Roger Lewis- Lewis might be the best wide receiver in college football. In six of the last seven games, Lewis has gone over 100 yards with a touchdown. He has three games this season with 200+ yards. He is an elite option this week.
2) Corey Coleman- It feels wrong to put Corey Coleman as the number two option on this slate, as he is averaging 2.5 touchdowns per game this season. However, the Jarrett Stidham quarterback change has us slightly concerned as previously mentioned. We are really splitting hairs here as both him and Roger Lewis are great plays, Lewis gets the slight edge due to not having his situation change and he will be under-owned compared to Coleman.
3) Daniel Braverman- As previously mentioned, Braverman is in an excellent matchup, and provides some nice salary relief from Coleman or Lewis.
4) Corey Davis- Corey Davis is underpriced this week in what is the best matchup on the season. He is a great start this week, as he continues to work back to 2014 form after a slow start.
5) Kenny Golladay- Kenny Golladay is another wide receiver who is under-priced at $5,800 this week. While he is more of a safe option, he provides nice value with four straight games at 6 receptions.
6) Corey Jones- The 5'9 Corey Jones has shown significant improvement as we have seen Phillip Ely play much better over the past few weeks. Jones has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and provides a nice value play at $5,600.
7) Cody Thompson- Cody is overpriced in this situation, but still should be considered for GPP's, as he is averaging 22 yards per reception, so all it takes is two long receptions to pay off his value.
8) Ryan Burbrink- There are other wide receivers who are better talents this week, and may score more points, but this is a value play as at $5,500, Burbrink has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and gets to play with our number one quarterback on the slate. He presents an excellent value if for some reason you do not pay up for Roger Lewis.
TE Rankings-
1) Matt Weiser- Weiser has 39 receptions at the tight end position which is one of the highest in the country. While he hasn't scored a lot of touchdowns this year, he is the safest option on the board due to his reception volume. Weiser is the premiere option in cash games, and if he finds the end zone could pay off huge dividends.
2) Jarred Gipson- Gipson is the exact opposite of Weiser, as he has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, but only has 15 receptions so far this year which makes him a lot more volatile as he becomes more touchdown dependent.
3) Michael Roberts- Roberts has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, and while he only has 13 receptions to his credit, he provides a nice value option this week.
4) Keith Heitzman- Heitzman has largely done nothing this year until last week where he had a monster game of six receptions for 83 yards. Heitzman is by far the most risky option on this slate, and should not be considered for cash games.
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