Tuesday, November 3, 2015

FanDuel Mid-Week CFB Slate Writeup Tuesday-Thursday

As we move toward the end of the season, college football becomes non-stop. Over the next few weeks, you are going to continue to see more and more games that are on non-typical college football days. This week is the start of that as we have one game on Tuesday, one game on Wednesday and six games on Thursday. While the Thursday slate is not unusual, the Tuesday-Thursday slate is definitely intriguing. We are going to have our full slate write-ups on the FanDuel landing page on Footballguys.com, but below is an abridged version of top stacks, player rankings, and value plays.

Top Stacks-
1) Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis- These two are the cream of the crop when it comes to college football this season. Matt Johnson has thrown for 300+ yards in every start this year, and is in a good position to do it again as while the matchup is difficult on paper, this is not the most difficult matchup that Bowling Green has had this season, and Johnson has shown that he is matchup proof.

2) Zach Terrell and Daniel Braverman- Zach Terrell and Braverman let everyone down last week, so if you played them, don't let that yourself fall into recency bias. Daniel Braverman has been one of the best receivers in the country so far this season. Ball State has one of the worst pass defenses in the country having allowed 293 yards passing per game. This is one of the safer stacks on the day, and can allow you to pivot off of

3) Jarrett Stidham and Corey Coleman- The Seth Russell injury was one of the most disappointing injuries this season, as he was on pace to have an outstanding year. Meanwhile his relationship with Coleman was something that was going to test the touchdown record this season. In comes Freshman Jarrett Stidham, and most of his work so far has been when the game is out of hand. There is significant risk in this stack, as we just don't know who Jarrett Stidham is. Having watched about all the high school film on him as we could, he loves the check down throws to running backs and quick slants over the middle. If Seth Russell was playing quarterback, this would be a no brainer as the matchup is a good one, but due to the uncertainty when there are two elite options we are recommending that you go with the MAC players this week.

QB Rankings-
1) Matt Johnson- One of the elite quarterbacks in college football having thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season

2) Zach Terrell- Should rebound nicely this week, as the matchup is ideal as Ball State has allowed 293 yards passing per game.

3) Jarrett Stidham- Freshman quarterback in an ideal offense. There is risk here is that this game gets out of hand quickly due to a rushing touchdown, and they just win the game on the ground.

4) Dak Prescott- Tough matchup for Dak this week as Missouri has only allowed 161 yards passing per game.

5) Taylor Lamb- Arkansas State has allowed 253 yards passing per game. Taylor Lamb has largely been inconsistent this season, but provides a nice contrarian GPP option due to the matchup and his running ability.

RB Rankings- 
1) Joel Bouagnon- 22+ points in each of his last four games

2) Shock Linwood- 27 carries last week and should be heavily leaned on with a Freshman quarterback.

3) James Butler- Fresno State is 118th against the run allowing 239 yards rushing per game, Butler is risky, but provides a nice value as an RB2 this slate. He has rushed over 100 yards in four of the last six games, so there is some volatility there, but he will not be in a better matchup all season.

4) Jordan Johnson (If Anthone Taylor is out)- With Taylor out, Johnson has had 28 carries in each of his last two games with two touchdowns in each of the games.

5) Marcus Cox- He has seen some of the most consistent volume on this slate as he had 30 carries last week. The matchup is not an ideal one as Arkansas State has only allowed 150 yards per game rushing, and Cox has only scored a touchdown in four games this season.

6) Marteze Waller- Waller has largely been inconsistent this season, as he has only broken 100 yards twice, but is in a good matchup and has the ability to break a long run like we saw in 2014.

7) Travis Greene- Good value play as he continues to try to improve his health and get back to being the running back he was last season.

WR Rankings-
1) Roger Lewis- Lewis might be the best wide receiver in college football. In six of the last seven games, Lewis has gone over 100 yards with a touchdown. He has three games this season with 200+ yards. He is an elite option this week.

2) Corey Coleman- It feels wrong to put Corey Coleman as the number two option on this slate, as he is averaging 2.5 touchdowns per game this season. However, the Jarrett Stidham quarterback change has us slightly concerned as previously mentioned. We are really splitting hairs here as both him and Roger Lewis are great plays, Lewis gets the slight edge due to not having his situation change and he will be under-owned compared to Coleman.

3) Daniel Braverman- As previously mentioned, Braverman is in an excellent matchup, and provides some nice salary relief from Coleman or Lewis.

4) Corey Davis- Corey Davis is underpriced this week in what is the best matchup on the season. He is a great start this week, as he continues to work back to 2014 form after a slow start.

5) Kenny Golladay- Kenny Golladay is another wide receiver who is under-priced at $5,800 this week. While he is more of a safe option, he provides nice value with four straight games at 6 receptions.

6) Corey Jones- The 5'9 Corey Jones has shown significant improvement as we have seen Phillip Ely play much better over the past few weeks. Jones has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and provides a nice value play at $5,600.

7) Cody Thompson- Cody is overpriced in this situation, but still should be considered for GPP's, as he is averaging 22 yards per reception, so all it takes is two long receptions to pay off his value.

8) Ryan Burbrink- There are other wide receivers who are better talents this week, and may score more points, but this is a value play as at $5,500, Burbrink has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and gets to play with our number one quarterback on the slate. He presents an excellent value if for some reason you do not pay up for Roger Lewis.

TE Rankings- 
1) Matt Weiser- Weiser has 39 receptions at the tight end position which is one of the highest in the country. While he hasn't scored a lot of touchdowns this year, he is the safest option on the board due to his reception volume. Weiser is the premiere option in cash games, and if he finds the end zone could pay off huge dividends.

2) Jarred Gipson- Gipson is the exact opposite of Weiser, as he has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, but only has 15 receptions so far this year which makes him a lot more volatile as he becomes more touchdown dependent.

3) Michael Roberts- Roberts has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, and while he only has 13 receptions to his credit, he provides a nice value option this week.

4) Keith Heitzman- Heitzman has largely done nothing this year until last week where he had a monster game of six receptions for 83 yards. Heitzman is by far the most risky option on this slate, and should not be considered for cash games.

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