The Texans' offensive line got depleted during the contest in Carolina on Sunday, losing right tackle Jeff Adams who was forced from the contest due to a right knee injury. His leg was placed in an air cast before he was carted off - we'll see how serious the injury is, but initial indications are troubling.
Couple Adams' situation with the fact that left tackle Duane Brown was unable to practice last week due to his injured hand - Brown was inactive on Sunday after being listed as doubtful to play on Friday. Brown (thumb injury) said after the game that he is unsure if he will be able to play in Week Three. 'Not sure yet. We're taking it a day at a time, seeing how it progresses. Hopefully. I'd like to get out there, but we'll see.' Also out of action right now is guard Xavier Sua-Filo, who was unable to practice last week due to his injured calf. Sua-Filo was inactive on Sunday after being listed as out on Friday.
The rehabilitation of Arian Foster's injured groin has been progressing swiftly and well according to all reports, but don't be too hasty to insert Foster into your FanDuel lineups until we see the Houston offensive line A). regain some of their missing starters or add some quality free agents to replace the missing starters and B). produce better results than a 2.7 yards per carry average during a game (the Texans had 23/61/1 rushing at Carolina, and quarterback Ryan Mallett scored the TD with 1/6/1 rushing).
Foster can't create holes in the opposing defensive front all by himself - right now the Texans' backs are getting precious little help from the patchwork offensive line in front of them.
New to DFS? Want to go from fish to piranha and take down a shark? This is the place for you.
Monday, September 21, 2015
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Week 2: Last-Minute Injury Reactions
Here are some last-minute thoughts on last-minute injury news for Week 2.
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (out)
I was already fading the Tennessee offense this week. Until we see more, last week's explosion was more aberration than norm—the Bucs are terrible. Having said that, Walker's absence boosts receiver Kendall Wright ($6,100) a bit, and tight end Anthony Fasano ($4,600) becomes a GPP dart at near-minimum salary.
C.J. Spiller, RB, New Orleans Saints (active)
This was coming, but Spiller was officially made active this morning. There is little reason to stick him in lineups at $6,100 given his likely limited usage.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears (out)
A week after coming back from a calf issue, Alshon Jeffery was ruled out with a hamstring injury this week. This is a huge blow to to the Bears offense -- Marquess Wilson ($4,500) and Eddie Royal ($4,800) are now the starters.
You will note those are some pretty nice prices. The question is who will Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson cover? He shut down Saints receiver Brandin Cooks last week, and it's quite possible he'll be on more-prolific Royal. Wilson is a better physical specimen, though, and Peterson could be tasked with keeping him in check.
Both of them are good GPP plays, but Martellus Bennett becomes an even better cash option this week. Even at $6,100, Bennett could see double-digit targets from quarterback Jay Cutler.
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams (active)
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (out)
Both of these situations make sense -- Gurley should be held out as long as possible coming back from that torn ACL, though it looks like he's on track to make his Week 3 debut.
Mason's activation means bad news for Benny Cunningham ($5,800). A Week 1 sleeper, Cunningham is no longer minimum-priced. Washington's defense, meanwhile, held down a good Dolphins offense last week. The run defense has been surprisingly good since last season.
Meanwhile, Mason is way too expensive at $7,200 to even consider.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (active)
By many accounts, Mike Evans could have played last week. The Buccaneers kept him out to avoid aggravating his injury, which could be good news for his Week 2 output.
At $8,100, however, it's tough to trust the second-year wideout this week. The game script says the Buccaneers will be passing the ball a ton in the second half, but his lack of rapport with quarterback Jameis Winston combined with the threat of injury aggravation just makes him a fade. (Note: that is polar opposite of what the great Dr. Jene Bramel told you. Probably better to listen to him.)
His return may or may not impact fellow receiver Vincent Jackson ($7,200), who had a relatively quiet Week 1 despite a favorable game script and matchup. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is still a minimum-priced tight end worth having at $4,500 in all formats. Winston looked his way plenty, and Evans could draw additional defensive attention.
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Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (out)
I was already fading the Tennessee offense this week. Until we see more, last week's explosion was more aberration than norm—the Bucs are terrible. Having said that, Walker's absence boosts receiver Kendall Wright ($6,100) a bit, and tight end Anthony Fasano ($4,600) becomes a GPP dart at near-minimum salary.
C.J. Spiller, RB, New Orleans Saints (active)
This was coming, but Spiller was officially made active this morning. There is little reason to stick him in lineups at $6,100 given his likely limited usage.
LeSean McCoy is active for the #Bills, but expect he’ll be less than 100 percent. For #Saints, CJ Spiller to be used in red zone & 3rd down
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 20, 2015
This does ding Mark Ingram ($8,100), but the matchup is so strong that you shouldn't be scrambling to make changes there. Khiry Robinson ($4,900) is a fade at this point, even at that price.Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears (out)
A week after coming back from a calf issue, Alshon Jeffery was ruled out with a hamstring injury this week. This is a huge blow to to the Bears offense -- Marquess Wilson ($4,500) and Eddie Royal ($4,800) are now the starters.
You will note those are some pretty nice prices. The question is who will Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson cover? He shut down Saints receiver Brandin Cooks last week, and it's quite possible he'll be on more-prolific Royal. Wilson is a better physical specimen, though, and Peterson could be tasked with keeping him in check.
Both of them are good GPP plays, but Martellus Bennett becomes an even better cash option this week. Even at $6,100, Bennett could see double-digit targets from quarterback Jay Cutler.
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams (active)
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (out)
Both of these situations make sense -- Gurley should be held out as long as possible coming back from that torn ACL, though it looks like he's on track to make his Week 3 debut.
Mason's activation means bad news for Benny Cunningham ($5,800). A Week 1 sleeper, Cunningham is no longer minimum-priced. Washington's defense, meanwhile, held down a good Dolphins offense last week. The run defense has been surprisingly good since last season.
Meanwhile, Mason is way too expensive at $7,200 to even consider.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (active)
By many accounts, Mike Evans could have played last week. The Buccaneers kept him out to avoid aggravating his injury, which could be good news for his Week 2 output.
At $8,100, however, it's tough to trust the second-year wideout this week. The game script says the Buccaneers will be passing the ball a ton in the second half, but his lack of rapport with quarterback Jameis Winston combined with the threat of injury aggravation just makes him a fade. (Note: that is polar opposite of what the great Dr. Jene Bramel told you. Probably better to listen to him.)
His return may or may not impact fellow receiver Vincent Jackson ($7,200), who had a relatively quiet Week 1 despite a favorable game script and matchup. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is still a minimum-priced tight end worth having at $4,500 in all formats. Winston looked his way plenty, and Evans could draw additional defensive attention.
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Trust or Fade: Sunday Morning Injury Expectations
Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night FanDuel slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.
There's only a slim chance Jeffery will dress today. He wasn't at full strength last week and now is dealing with two separate muscle strains. If he somehow makes the active roster, he's not a consideration for your FanDuel lineup.
MIKE EVANS | 8100 | Hamstring Strain | Questionable
Cash: LEAN TRUST
GPP: LEAN TRUST
Early Sunday morning reports have Evans likely to play. However, he may not be 100%. The full week of limited practices make it unlikely Evans will be used as a decoy, but there's no guarantee Evans is healthy enough to see his usual targets. His talent and matchup are enough to consider him in lineups today, but he's a risky contrarian play until he proves he's able to separate on downfield routes.
T.Y. HILTON | 7600 | Knee contusion | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE
We won't know Hilton's roster status until tomorrow night, but the news has trended positive all week. However, making the active roster and feeling strong enough to play effectively are two very different things. Hilton needed treatment and couldn't practice until Saturday. He may also see Darrelle Revis is he's active. Running decoy routes to occupy Revis is just as likely as Hilton recovering to close to full strength by Monday. I'd avoid him, even in GPP lineups.
LESEAN MCCOY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
McCoy is currently expected to play. But he's clearly less than full strength and at high risk of another setback. I don't believe he'll see more than 8-10 touches and he's unlikely to be effective if he does. He may play just enough to make Karlos Williams a disappointing upside option.
C.J. SPILLER | 6100 | Knee | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE
Multiple Sunday morning reports have Spiller likely to play today. But it's expected he'll only see time in limited packages and he may not be the primary option even on those passing down plays. I don't see enough upside to use him as a contrarian GPP play and he's a longshot to reach cash game value.
I don't have enough information to make a strong recommendation on Jordan Reed or Todd Gurley. Reed is expected to play, but he has a long history of aggravating muscle strains and is a boom-bust option in both cash and GPP lineups. Gurley is a game time decision but unlikely to see more than 8-10 touches if he goes today.
Here's the Sunday morning update on which injured players are safe to roster on the FanDuel Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.
JULIO JONES | 8800 | Hamstring Strain | Probable
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST
Jones fully practiced on Friday and has been adamant all week that he's good to go today. He may leave the field a little more often today than usual, but he did so in the second half of last week's game and remained productive. There's a lower than usual floor with Jones, but the ceiling remains high.
JULIO JONES | 8800 | Hamstring Strain | Probable
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST
Jones fully practiced on Friday and has been adamant all week that he's good to go today. He may leave the field a little more often today than usual, but he did so in the second half of last week's game and remained productive. There's a lower than usual floor with Jones, but the ceiling remains high.
ALSHON JEFFERY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
There's only a slim chance Jeffery will dress today. He wasn't at full strength last week and now is dealing with two separate muscle strains. If he somehow makes the active roster, he's not a consideration for your FanDuel lineup.
MIKE EVANS | 8100 | Hamstring Strain | Questionable
Cash: LEAN TRUST
GPP: LEAN TRUST
Early Sunday morning reports have Evans likely to play. However, he may not be 100%. The full week of limited practices make it unlikely Evans will be used as a decoy, but there's no guarantee Evans is healthy enough to see his usual targets. His talent and matchup are enough to consider him in lineups today, but he's a risky contrarian play until he proves he's able to separate on downfield routes.
T.Y. HILTON | 7600 | Knee contusion | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE
We won't know Hilton's roster status until tomorrow night, but the news has trended positive all week. However, making the active roster and feeling strong enough to play effectively are two very different things. Hilton needed treatment and couldn't practice until Saturday. He may also see Darrelle Revis is he's active. Running decoy routes to occupy Revis is just as likely as Hilton recovering to close to full strength by Monday. I'd avoid him, even in GPP lineups.
LESEAN MCCOY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
McCoy is currently expected to play. But he's clearly less than full strength and at high risk of another setback. I don't believe he'll see more than 8-10 touches and he's unlikely to be effective if he does. He may play just enough to make Karlos Williams a disappointing upside option.
C.J. SPILLER | 6100 | Knee | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE
Multiple Sunday morning reports have Spiller likely to play today. But it's expected he'll only see time in limited packages and he may not be the primary option even on those passing down plays. I don't see enough upside to use him as a contrarian GPP play and he's a longshot to reach cash game value.
I don't have enough information to make a strong recommendation on Jordan Reed or Todd Gurley. Reed is expected to play, but he has a long history of aggravating muscle strains and is a boom-bust option in both cash and GPP lineups. Gurley is a game time decision but unlikely to see more than 8-10 touches if he goes today.
Best of luck today in your FanDuel contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations, which includes additional thoughts on lesser players like Chris Ivory, Delanie Walker, and Justin Forsett.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Projecting Ownership: FanDuel Week 2
In the weekly feature 'Projecting Ownership Percentage' at Footballguys.com, data from Thursday Night contest locks are discussed, as well as cash and tournament lineups. Here are a few highlights:
Drew Brees-Brandin Cooks is a popular stack for Week 2. The pair had a tough outing at Arizona to open the season, but getting Tampa Bay in their home dome is a strong rebound bet.
Heath Miller was sparsely owned for Thursday contests and offers a high floor for $600 less than highly-owned Jason Witten.
James Jones is getting all the ownership love in Green Bay this week. Tournament lineups can gain uniqueness with Davante Adams instead.
The Saints are an outstanding value by the Footballguys projections this week and come at a bargain basement $4,500 salary. Oh, and they are not highly-owned by Thursday Night numbers.
For the rest of the data and recommendations, check out 'Projecting Ownership Percentage' over at Footballguys.com.
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Drew Brees-Brandin Cooks is a popular stack for Week 2. The pair had a tough outing at Arizona to open the season, but getting Tampa Bay in their home dome is a strong rebound bet.
Heath Miller was sparsely owned for Thursday contests and offers a high floor for $600 less than highly-owned Jason Witten.
James Jones is getting all the ownership love in Green Bay this week. Tournament lineups can gain uniqueness with Davante Adams instead.
The Saints are an outstanding value by the Footballguys projections this week and come at a bargain basement $4,500 salary. Oh, and they are not highly-owned by Thursday Night numbers.
For the rest of the data and recommendations, check out 'Projecting Ownership Percentage' over at Footballguys.com.
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Contrarian Plays: Week 2
In our weekly feature, "The Fade", we analyzed ownership percentages from a Thursday night GPP to get a sense of groupthink. We'll use those same numbers in "The Contrarian" but take the opposite approach in the name of roster uniqueness. Below is an excerpt from Week 2:
We hear there’s a nice Airbnb for rent in Philadelphia on Narrative Street. It’s fully furnished with No. 1 running back upside and revenge-game potential. Yes, DeMarco Murray has more to play for this week than normal. Yes, he had the third lowest yardage total of his career last week. He also is riding the longest touchdown streak for any running back in the league. The last time he failed to find the end zone was against the Jaguars back on November 9th. That’s eight consecutive games (h/t Mark Eckel). We expected his ownership to be higher than what the Thursday numbers are telling us, but regardless, he is in for a huge game on Sunday. And not just because he’s playing against the team that refused to pay him. He is a perfect fit for Kelly’s system and will be a lock for several catches and yards, and if even when those numbers are low, he’s a constant multi-touchdown threat. You could do a lot worse for $8,300.
You can read the rest here.
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Player | Salary | Game | Own % | Player | Salary | Game | Own % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | $7000 | SF@PIT | 33.4 | Chris Johnson | $5700 | ARI@CHI | 3 |
| Christopher Ivory | $6900 | NYJ@IND | 18.9 | Tevin Coleman | $6500 | ATL@NYG | 1.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | $6400 | DET@MIN | 13.2 | Benny Cunningham | $5800 | STL@WAS | 1.8 |
| Matt Forte | $8900 | ARI@CHI | 12.2 | Alfred Morris | $7300 | STL@WAS | 1.6 |
| Mark Ingram | $8000 | TB@NO | 9.3 | LeSean McCoy | $8100 | NE@BUF | 1.4 |
| Justin Forsett | $7800 | BAL@OAK | 9.2 | Doug Martin | $6700 | TB@NO | 1.4 |
| Bishop Sankey | $6500 | TEN@CLE | 9.1 | LeGarrette Blount | $6400 | NE@BUF | 1.2 |
| Marshawn Lynch | $8500 | SEA@GB | 9 | Rashad Jennings | $6400 | ATL@NYG | 1.1 |
| Jeremy Hill | $8400 | SD@CIN | 7.9 | Dion Lewis | $5200 | NE@BUF | 0.9 |
| Darren Sproles | $5600 | DAL@PHI | 7.1 | Frank Gore | $7000 | NYJ@IND | 0.8 |
| Lamar Miller | $7300 | MIA@JAC | 6.5 | Latavius Murray | $6800 | BAL@OAK | 0.7 |
| DeMarco Murray | $8300 | DAL@PHI | 5.9 | David Johnson | $6600 | ARI@CHI | 0.7 |
| Eddie Lacy | $8100 | SEA@GB | 4.3 | Tre Mason | $7200 | STL@WAS | 0.4 |
| DeAngelo Williams | $7400 | SF@PIT | 3.6 | T.J. Yeldon | $6500 | MIA@JAC | 0.4 |
| Adrian Peterson | $9000 | DET@MIN | 3.1 | Ryan Mathews | $5700 | DAL@PHI | 0.3 |
| Joseph Randle | $6700 | DAL@PHI | 3 | Terrance West | $5300 | TEN@CLE | 0.1 |
We hear there’s a nice Airbnb for rent in Philadelphia on Narrative Street. It’s fully furnished with No. 1 running back upside and revenge-game potential. Yes, DeMarco Murray has more to play for this week than normal. Yes, he had the third lowest yardage total of his career last week. He also is riding the longest touchdown streak for any running back in the league. The last time he failed to find the end zone was against the Jaguars back on November 9th. That’s eight consecutive games (h/t Mark Eckel). We expected his ownership to be higher than what the Thursday numbers are telling us, but regardless, he is in for a huge game on Sunday. And not just because he’s playing against the team that refused to pay him. He is a perfect fit for Kelly’s system and will be a lock for several catches and yards, and if even when those numbers are low, he’s a constant multi-touchdown threat. You could do a lot worse for $8,300.
You can read the rest here.
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Medical Check
There are a lot of injuries going into week 2 of the NFL season. Some big headliners include Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, Jordan Reed, and T.Y. Hilton. How should you handle them and their teammates in your lineups this week? Check out what Jene Bramel and I had to say here.
Fades and Loss Leaders: Week 2
Each week, in a feature titled "The Fade", we'll gather Thursday night ownership percentages and identify a few players we'll want to avoid and a few bandwagons we'll want to jump on. Here is an excerpt from this week:
Like last week, we’re not going over think things here. Josh Brown is the crowd favorite. The Giants offense suggests we should fade the crowd, so we will. In fact, fade all of these kickers and start Greg Zuerlein.
Wait... an excerpt about kickers? What a jerk. You can read the rest here.
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Player | Salary | Game | Own % | Player | Salary | Game | Own % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Brown | $4500 | ATL@NYG | 13.7 | Adam Vinatieri | $5000 | NYJ@IND | 2.6 |
| Matt Bryant | $5000 | ATL@NYG | 9 | Mason Crosby | $5100 | SEA@GB | 2.5 |
| Zach Hocker | $4500 | TB@NO | 8.8 | Greg Zuerlein | $4800 | STL@WAS | 2.2 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | $5200 | NE@BUF | 4 | Dan Carpenter | $4800 | NE@BUF | 2 |
| Justin Tucker | $5200 | BAL@OAK | 4 | Chandler Catanzaro | $4700 | ARI@CHI | 1.8 |
| Dan Bailey | $5000 | DAL@PHI | 4 | Cody Parkey | $5000 | DAL@PHI | 1.5 |
| Robbie Gould | $4800 | ARI@CHI | 3.9 | Mike Nugent | $4800 | SD@CIN | 1.2 |
| Steven Hauschka | $5100 | SEA@GB | 2.6 | Phil Dawson | $5000 | SF@PIT | 0.7 |
Like last week, we’re not going over think things here. Josh Brown is the crowd favorite. The Giants offense suggests we should fade the crowd, so we will. In fact, fade all of these kickers and start Greg Zuerlein.
Wait... an excerpt about kickers? What a jerk. You can read the rest here.
Follow @justinbonnema
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