Thursday, September 17, 2015

Trust or Fade: Thursday Night Injury Expectations

Steve Buzzard and I will be collaborating every Saturday on a feature spotlighting the week’s injury concerns. By Friday, we’ll have a full week of practice participation reports and media interviews to more accurately drill down on whether a player is likely to play, and play effectively, on Sunday.

But that doesn’t help you exploit injury edges in your Thursday-Sunday lineups.

So, I’ll be giving a quick “trust or fade” recommendation on the blog each week after the Wednesday practice participation report is released. It’ll be based on incomplete information, but I’m hoping to keep you from starting a player who is likely to be ineffective or take a smart risk on a player who others may be avoiding unnecessarily.

You’ll also want to check out our full midweek injury feature from Craig Zumsteg when it goes live late Wednesday night on our season-long article page.

Thursday Night Football Expectation


C.J. Anderson 8000  >>>>  (Toe/Ankle | Questionable)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Anderson didn't look comfortable before the late fourth quarter play where he sprained his toe. He's told reporters this week he aggravated an ankle injury that has nagged him throughout his career. His Week 1 injuries occurred late Sunday afternoon and the Broncos are on the road tonight. It's too quick of a turnaround to expect adequate treatment and recovery time. He's expected to play tonight, but he won't be anywhere near 100%. Expect a heavy rotation with Ronnie Hillman against a tough division opponent on the road with a solid run defense. Even the contrarians among us won't find a lot to like here this week.

Demaryius Thomas 8500  >>>>  (Hand | Probable)
Travis Kelce 6600  >>>>  (Hip | Probable)
Jeremy Maclin 7100  >>>>  (Back | Probable)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Though I'm not planning on using him, I'm not making a specific recommendation on whether you should use Maclin in your cash or GPP lineups. I'm only noting that you can remove injury concerns from your list of pros and cons with him.

While there were initially some concerns about Thomas' hand injury, he's practiced all week and it seems to be a non-issue. Kelce has been on the injury report with a minor hip condition and has seen his practice snaps managed. Neither injury should affect their expectation tonight.


Trust or Fade?


NOTE: After publishing this post, LeSean McCoy left practice early with hamstring tightness. He cannot be trusted in any Thursday slate lineups.

Julio Jones 8800  >>>>  (Hamstring | DNP)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

I'm never reassured when a wide receiver leaves a game multiple times with soreness and then misses practice with a report of a muscle strain. Jones finished last week's game no worse than when he started, however, and doesn't seem to be at risk of missing this week's game. The difficulty here is that Atlanta is probably the least reported team in the NFL. Often, critical updates aren't released until just before game time. As of Thursday morning, I think Julio plays. But he's not entirely without risk this week.

Alshon Jeffery 8100  >>>>  (Calf | Not Listed)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Jeffery wasn't his usual explosive self last week, but he avoided any aggravations and is now on his second week of practice since returning. He was not listed on the injury report on Wednesday and is safe to use.

Mike Evans 8100  >>>>  (Hamstring | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Evans managed a limited practice last Friday, rested in Week 1, and is now back to a limited practice on Wednesday this week. I expect he'll play this week, but there's no guarantee his status will be favorable by Sunday. I recommend fading him in cash games until we see a full week of participation reports. I'm more willing to put him into a high risk, high upside GPP lineup in the Thursday slate.

Randall Cobb 8200  >>>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Cobb will continue to deal with a painful shoulder sprain and it may be another week or two before we can reliably project him to an elite target ceiling. But he showed last week he's willing to play through pain and produce.

Justin Forsett 7800  >>>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

The specifics of Forsett's shoulder injury aren't clear, but there's nothing in the local or national media of concern. It's safe to consider this wear-and-tear rather than something likely to limit him on Sunday. The favorable matchup ensures a reward that's worth the slight risk of a late week injury report surprise.

C.J. Spiller 6100  >>>>  (Knee | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN TRUST
Something about this still nags at me. I didn't like the suggestion that Spiller wasn't cleared to practice at all last week but would 100% play in Week 2. The limited practice is a great start, however, and it's possible Spiller will return to a full practice by Friday. Volume is a concern here, even in a favorable matchup. Should the Saints get out to a lead, Spiller may not be needed later in the game. Limited practice participation may also mean limited participation in this week's game plan. I'd consider him a lower salary, contrarian GPP play only.

Delanie Walker 5200  >>>>  (Wrist | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
What was originally called a hand injury has later been reported as a sprained wrist. Walker has been immobilized much of the week, indicating more than a passing concern from the medical staff. Fade Walker on the Thursday slate and reassess for Sunday after you see the rest of the week's practice reports.

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Check back on Friday for our Injury Spotlight and Lineup Recommendation feature. Until then, follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking analysis on practice participation and media interviews. Finally, on Sunday morning, I’ll be adapting my Injury Expectations column for this blog to help navigate any tricky game time decisions.



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