Saturday, September 19, 2015

Contrarian Plays: Week 2

In our weekly feature, "The Fade", we analyzed ownership percentages from a Thursday night GPP to get a sense of groupthink. We'll use those same numbers in "The Contrarian" but take the opposite approach in the name of roster uniqueness. Below is an excerpt from Week 2:


Player

Salary

Game

Own %

Player

Salary

Game

Own %

Carlos Hyde $7000 SF@PIT 33.4 Chris Johnson $5700 ARI@CHI 3
Christopher Ivory $6900 NYJ@IND 18.9 Tevin Coleman $6500 ATL@NYG 1.8
Ameer Abdullah $6400 DET@MIN 13.2 Benny Cunningham $5800 STL@WAS 1.8
Matt Forte $8900 ARI@CHI 12.2 Alfred Morris $7300 STL@WAS 1.6
Mark Ingram $8000 TB@NO 9.3 LeSean McCoy $8100 NE@BUF 1.4
Justin Forsett $7800 BAL@OAK 9.2 Doug Martin $6700 TB@NO 1.4
Bishop Sankey $6500 TEN@CLE 9.1 LeGarrette Blount $6400 NE@BUF 1.2
Marshawn Lynch $8500 SEA@GB 9 Rashad Jennings $6400 ATL@NYG 1.1
Jeremy Hill $8400 SD@CIN 7.9 Dion Lewis $5200 NE@BUF 0.9
Darren Sproles $5600 DAL@PHI 7.1 Frank Gore $7000 NYJ@IND 0.8
Lamar Miller $7300 MIA@JAC 6.5 Latavius Murray $6800 BAL@OAK 0.7
DeMarco Murray $8300 DAL@PHI 5.9 David Johnson $6600 ARI@CHI 0.7
Eddie Lacy $8100 SEA@GB 4.3 Tre Mason $7200 STL@WAS 0.4
DeAngelo Williams $7400 SF@PIT 3.6 T.J. Yeldon $6500 MIA@JAC 0.4
Adrian Peterson $9000 DET@MIN 3.1 Ryan Mathews $5700 DAL@PHI 0.3
Joseph Randle $6700 DAL@PHI 3 Terrance West $5300 TEN@CLE 0.1

We hear there’s a nice Airbnb for rent in Philadelphia on Narrative Street. It’s fully furnished with No. 1 running back upside and revenge-game potential. Yes, DeMarco Murray has more to play for this week than normal. Yes, he had the third lowest yardage total of his career last week. He also is riding the longest touchdown streak for any running back in the league. The last time he failed to find the end zone was against the Jaguars back on November 9th. That’s eight consecutive games (h/t Mark Eckel). We expected his ownership to be higher than what the Thursday numbers are telling us, but regardless, he is in for a huge game on Sunday. And not just because he’s playing against the team that refused to pay him. He is a perfect fit for Kelly’s system and will be a lock for several catches and yards, and if even when those numbers are low, he’s a constant multi-touchdown threat. You could do a lot worse for $8,300.

You can read the rest here.


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