Sunday, September 20, 2015

Trust or Fade: Sunday Morning Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night FanDuel slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which injured players are safe to roster on the FanDuel Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

JULIO JONES | 8800 | Hamstring Strain | Probable

Jones fully practiced on Friday and has been adamant all week that he's good to go today. He may leave the field a little more often today than usual, but he did so in the second half of last week's game and remained productive. There's a lower than usual floor with Jones, but the ceiling remains high.

ALSHON JEFFERY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE

There's only a slim chance Jeffery will dress today. He wasn't at full strength last week and now is dealing with two separate muscle strains. If he somehow makes the active roster, he's not a consideration for your FanDuel lineup.

MIKE EVANS | 8100 | Hamstring Strain | Questionable

Early Sunday morning reports have Evans likely to play. However, he may not be 100%. The full week of limited practices make it unlikely Evans will be used as a decoy, but there's no guarantee Evans is healthy enough to see his usual targets. His talent and matchup are enough to consider him in lineups today, but he's a risky contrarian play until he proves he's able to separate on downfield routes.

T.Y. HILTON | 7600 | Knee contusion | Questionable
Cash: FADE

We won't know Hilton's roster status until tomorrow night, but the news has trended positive all week. However, making the active roster and feeling strong enough to play effectively are two very different things. Hilton needed treatment and couldn't practice until Saturday. He may also see Darrelle Revis is he's active. Running decoy routes to occupy Revis is just as likely as Hilton recovering to close to full strength by Monday. I'd avoid him, even in GPP lineups.

LESEAN MCCOY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE

McCoy is currently expected to play. But he's clearly less than full strength and at high risk of another setback. I don't believe he'll see more than 8-10 touches and he's unlikely to be effective if he does. He may play just enough to make Karlos Williams a disappointing upside option.

C.J. SPILLER | 6100 | Knee | Questionable
Cash: FADE

Multiple Sunday morning reports have Spiller likely to play today. But it's expected he'll only see time in limited packages and he may not be the primary option even on those passing down plays. I don't see enough upside to use him as a contrarian GPP play and he's a longshot to reach cash game value.

I don't have enough information to make a strong recommendation on Jordan Reed or Todd Gurley. Reed is expected to play, but he has a long history of aggravating muscle strains and is a boom-bust option in both cash and GPP lineups. Gurley is a game time decision but unlikely to see more than 8-10 touches if he goes today.

Best of luck today in your FanDuel contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations, which includes additional thoughts on lesser players like Chris Ivory, Delanie Walker, and Justin Forsett.

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