The Daily Grind - Week 4

Week 4's edition of The Daily Grind talks about the week that was in DFS and what is coming in the cutting edge world of daily fantasy sports.  Here is an excerpt from this week:

FanDuel – NFL Brackets Contest

FanDuel always looks to create new experiences for its customers, and that is definitely the case with their Brackets Contest.  The 64 qualifying entries will be placed in a head-to-head bracket style tournament (think “March Madness”) where every week half of the field will advance.  Qualifiers will run throughout October with the 64 teams all paired up for November contests through the bracket elimination portion of this contest.  The two teams still standing after November 29th will head to Las Vegas for a live final where the winner will walk away with $200,000 and the “loser” only gets $100,000.  Not a bad way to leave Las Vegas.  Look for qualifiers starting this week for as little as $5 an entry.  Once again, I'm in, and I think most DFS NFL fans should be too.

Read more in this week's edition of The Daily Grind now.

Staff FanDuel Friday Cash Plays

Hello everyone, it's time for the fourth edition of FanDuel Friday Cash Plays post. For new readers to this blog post, I commend to your attention the injury analysis of Footballguys Dr. Jene Bramel (his body of work is HERE on Footballguys.com) and also Craig Zumsteg's Injury Report Insight, Week Four. If you are considering a potentially banged-up player for a DFS lineup this week, those writers' analysis will be key to helping you avoid a mistake in Week Four. If you aren't a new reader, you should know by now to always check in with Dr. Bramel and Mr. Zumsteg before setting your Sunday Lineups.

The Staff Sunday Cash Plays can be found HERE (scroll down past the Thursday material).

Some notable trends in the Sunday lineups:

Karlos Williams ($6,300) is going to be heavily played this weekend - with LeSean McCoy now officially out, 13 of 16 staffers have Williams dialed up for Sunday - five of those staffers have paired Williams with Devonta Freeman ($7,200) in their lineups.

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) shows up on 10 of 16 lineups - and is paired with Julio Jones eight times, while the trio of Julio Jones ($9,400), Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper ($7,200) appears on three of 16 lineups. It's clear that fantasy owners have noted the preference of Carson Palmer ($8,200) for his fellow veteran Fitzgerald down in the desert.

However, nobody on staff is starting Fitzgerald's counterpart Palmer at quarterback this week (at least, not on this sample of starting lineups that were submitted - most staffers will play multiple iterations of these lineups).

PK Counts: Placekickers on more than one lineup - Matt Bryant ($4,800) was selected the most - five Footballguys put him in their sample lineup. Mason Crosby ($5,000) appears on three lineups, as does bargain-basement Josh Lambo ($4,500). Chandler Catanzaro ($4,800) checks in on two lineups.

Almost half of the staff has Denver's D/ST dialed up this week, with Denver on seven of 16 cash plays - at home their 10 total takeaways so far and a raucous Mile High Stadium crowd combined to make the $4,700 price point very attractive.

We hope you do well in all of your FanDuel entries this week - Good Luck All!

If Luck scratches, you have to consider Hasselbeck at $4,800

Here is the news from Rotoworld this morning:

Call me crazy, but I like my starting quarterback's practicing.  According to VegasInsider.com, two books (MGM Mirage and William Hill) have pulled action on this game until they know more.  The good news is that we will KNOW soon as the game is on the Sunday morning slate.

I decided to take a look at what kind of team I could build with Matt Hasselbeck ($4,800) starting.  Note:  This also assumes Julio is good to go as well.  

You can be the judge, but against JAX at home, I will roll with Matt Hasselbeck and this kind of stacked lineup for some of my cash action.

Printing Money...This one feels too easy.

and going completely against all the people saying  that it isn't profitable to stack in CASH games.

Here is my CASH Game Roster for Thursday.  

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 4

Everything seemed to get back on track in the NFL’s Week 3, as the underdogs who surprised everyone in Week 2 (and ruined a lot of Suicide Pools) looked like the teams we thought they would be and some of the teams who started rough (we’re looking at you Chip Kelly), bounced back.

Of course, we all know how unpredictable it can be in the NFL.

Most DFS players bounced back as well (I know I did), and so the staff got together our lineups (which you can check out fully here) with a bit more spring in our collective step this week.

Before we get started, a side note – Hurricane Joaquim is likely to impact the Washington-Philadelphia game, so keep that in mind. Alex Miglio had a nice impact write-up, so check it out.  

Staff Trends

Karlos Williams

Even before the news broke that LeSean McCoy was not playing this weekend against the battered Giants defense and his price of $6300 is a bargain at twice that this weekend. With some of the uncertainty around a few of the top backs (Marshawn Lynch for example), Williams could give you Adrian Peterson/Le’Veon bell numbers for a lot less.

Destination: Oakland

As predicted, lots of people starting players from the usual fantasy force: the Oakland Raiders.

Wait, what?

OK, while nobody predicted that, Derek Carr ($7000) came back from his Week 1 injury and is playing very well, helped in part by rookie Amari Cooper. Cooper isn’t going to make you overlook Julio Jones or Larry Fitzgerald, but he is a great producer for the price of $7200, though that price is rising steadily.  

On top of that, we have them facing Chicago. I love this stack myself. Latavius Murray also got some love, though I myself don’t love the $7500 price. Still, he played well last week and again: Chicago.  

Aaron Rodgers

Of course, Rodgers isn’t a value (which is why he isn’t in the value section below), but even $9200 isn’t all that much to pay for a guy who puts up ridiculous numbers every week, especially with Tom Brady on the shelf for an early bye. Several staff members are playing him, and it’s interesting that we see more of him now, with Brady out.

I suppose only one top stud at a time at quarterback.

Glaring Omissions

Adrian Peterson

A high price ($9000) coupled with a tough matchup (vs. Denver) kept Peterson on the shelf for the staff this week. Whereas you won’t bench Peterson in a year-long league, fading him in this situation makes sense. You can get production elsewhere for less (see Williams, Karlos) and stack up at another area.

Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell

While I expected people to back off Brown with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, I’m a little surprised nobody used him, especially considering many players are likely to fade him this week. Same thing with Bell, especially since in his case, the Steelers are likely to use him more. Both coast $8900, so the price was likely the culprit and it certainly was part of the reason I left them on the shelf.

Diamonds in the Rough

Percy Harvin- $5700

We talked about Karlos Williams above, but with Sammy Watkins along with LeSean McCoy, that lifts Harvin a little. He has a great matchup, is a good price and might get overlooked a little compared to guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald.

Cam Newton- $8300

Newton put the offense on his back last week and, with some help from Greg Olsen, put up really nice points. His price almost makes him less a hidden gem than an underrated fantasy start, but with so few passing options, and a weak first two games, he might get underutilized.

Week 4 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 4 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, predict ownership percentages, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss Dan Back paying off the first DubSmash lip syncing bet. It's a doozy!

You can watch this week's episode on-demand or download the audio version to listen on the go.

Exposed: Week 4

Here is an excerpt from this week's Exposed article at Footballguys, where all the FanDuel content is free for Week 4!

GOOD MATCHUPS 

 Nelson Agholor, WR, PHI @ WAS ($4,900) 

Miglio: It might be best to fade the entire Philadelphia-Washington tilt with Hurricane Joaquin threatening the mid-Atlantic coast, but you never know what value you might find if the game is indeed played as scheduled. The Philadelphia Eagles got off the schneid last week, but that doesn’t mean the passing game got on track. Washington’s secondary should help get Sam Bradford and Co. firing on all cylinders. That includes Nelson Agholor, who has been a ghost on offense thus far this season after plenty of preseason hype.

Rudnicki: Agholor has not looked comfortable yet, but he’s not alone when it comes to the struggles of the Eagles passing attack. He was shut out last week while matched up primarily against Darrelle Revis, but gets a much more favorable matchup this week (if the weather holds up). Washington’s starting LCB DeAngelo Hall is out and will likely be replaced byBashaud Breeland, who gave up 8 catches and two touchdowns on just 10 targets last week.

BAD MATCHUPS 

Mike Evans, WR, TB vs. CAR ($7,500) 

Miglio: Has Josh Norman begun construction on his island yet? Carolina's cornerback has quickly climbed the ranks, and he has become a nightmare for opposing wide receivers. Evans might be a target hog, but lining up against Norman is bad news for fantasy business. 

Rudnicki: Evans struggled a bit against Johnathan Joseph last week, but overall had a solid outing with seven catches on an amazing 17 targets. If Tampa keeps throwing to him that often, he almost has to put up good numbers again, but I’d be wary of him lining up across from Josh Norman this week. Also, the Panthers offense is the type that will try to grind out the clock and control the ball, which would also limit the chances for Evans. There are only a handful of corners in the league you want to avoid going up against, and Norman is probably in that group.