Be sure to check out the Week 13 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week.
New to DFS? Want to go from fish to piranha and take down a shark? This is the place for you.
Friday, December 4, 2015
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Kickers and Defenses
The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here are my kicker and defense boards for Week 13 early contests:
35% Stephen Gostkowski
20% Graham Gano
20% Chris Boswell
15% Mike Nugent
10% Robbie Gould
Like with tight ends, I rarely hit 40% with a singular kicker. Gostkowski is in a tier by himself for Week 13, therefore is nearly double the Gano-Boswell tier, while keeping his ownership in the 30s. Kickers are usually the easiest ownership rates to manage while constructing lineups as they vary by a few hundred in salary from highest to lowest. In a given week anywhere from four to six kickers will make the final list with a healthy mix of ownership.
30% Chicago
20% Cincinnati
20% New England
15% Washington
10% Arizona
5% Denver
Chicago and Washington are ideal as their salaries are bottom-of-the-barrel at $4,400 against questionable quarterbacks. Targeting weak quarterbacks, especially when they are on the road, is a fast-track to creating a defense portfolio list. Ideally a defense is playing at home, with a strong Footballguys projection, and a low opposition Vegas team total for an ideal combination.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
35% Stephen Gostkowski
20% Graham Gano
20% Chris Boswell
15% Mike Nugent
10% Robbie Gould
Like with tight ends, I rarely hit 40% with a singular kicker. Gostkowski is in a tier by himself for Week 13, therefore is nearly double the Gano-Boswell tier, while keeping his ownership in the 30s. Kickers are usually the easiest ownership rates to manage while constructing lineups as they vary by a few hundred in salary from highest to lowest. In a given week anywhere from four to six kickers will make the final list with a healthy mix of ownership.
30% Chicago
20% Cincinnati
20% New England
15% Washington
10% Arizona
5% Denver
Chicago and Washington are ideal as their salaries are bottom-of-the-barrel at $4,400 against questionable quarterbacks. Targeting weak quarterbacks, especially when they are on the road, is a fast-track to creating a defense portfolio list. Ideally a defense is playing at home, with a strong Footballguys projection, and a low opposition Vegas team total for an ideal combination.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Tight Ends
The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my tight end board for Week 13 early contests:
25% Delanie Walker
20% Greg Olsen
15% Travis Kelce
15% Jordan Reed
15% Scott Chandler
5% Kyle Rudolph
5% Julius Thomas
Without Rob Gronkowski or a glaring value play, the tight end position turns into a 5-player tier at the top. All are similarly-priced and two - Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce - have elite matchups. Rudolph and Thomas have top matchups, but low Footballguys projections, making them diversification plays at 5% each. I boosted Chandler when constructing lineups closer to 20% as he cheaper than the options above him at $5,300 and Danny Amendola's status could boost Chandler into the weekend contests on my board.
The tight end position is heavily-slanted towards who scores a touchdown as most see lower volume than their wide receiver peers. Therefore the positional ownership in my portfolio is typically more muted at the top - not going 'all in' on a single tight end as much as running back and wide receiver. Rarely will a tight end hit 40% ownership on my weekly board.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
25% Delanie Walker
20% Greg Olsen
15% Travis Kelce
15% Jordan Reed
15% Scott Chandler
5% Kyle Rudolph
5% Julius Thomas
Without Rob Gronkowski or a glaring value play, the tight end position turns into a 5-player tier at the top. All are similarly-priced and two - Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce - have elite matchups. Rudolph and Thomas have top matchups, but low Footballguys projections, making them diversification plays at 5% each. I boosted Chandler when constructing lineups closer to 20% as he cheaper than the options above him at $5,300 and Danny Amendola's status could boost Chandler into the weekend contests on my board.
The tight end position is heavily-slanted towards who scores a touchdown as most see lower volume than their wide receiver peers. Therefore the positional ownership in my portfolio is typically more muted at the top - not going 'all in' on a single tight end as much as running back and wide receiver. Rarely will a tight end hit 40% ownership on my weekly board.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Wide Receivers
The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my wide receiver board for Week 13 early contests:
30% Antonio Brown
25% Danny Amendola
25% DeAndre Hopkins
25% Alshon Jeffery
20% Larry Fitzgerald
20% Kamar Aiken
20% Jarvis Landry
20% Brandon Marshall
20% Eric Decker
20% Amari Cooper
20% Brandon LaFell
15% Michael Crabtree
15% Donte Moncrief
When a player is close to iffy status for Sunday, I typically fade them compared to their natural ownership projection on my board for Thursday-locking contests. Danny Amendola and Jarvis Landry were receivers who fit the category this week and I hedged down their ownership some just in case. I can always put them in more Sunday contests to even out their final status if they are looking good leading up to kickoff. With Amendola's status, I boosted LaFell closer to 25% as a result. He would see a boost if Amendola were iffy or out later in the week.
As mentioned in the quarterback edition, stacking is important even with three players from the same offense. The Jets are good example as much of their passing game runs through Marshall and Decker. The cheapest receiver on this list is Kamar Aiken at $6,100 - higher than most weeks on my board. The higher salaries at this position work out though, as running backs are more affordable as well as no Rob Gronkowski at tight end to fit under the cap.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
30% Antonio Brown
25% Danny Amendola
25% DeAndre Hopkins
25% Alshon Jeffery
20% Larry Fitzgerald
20% Kamar Aiken
20% Jarvis Landry
20% Brandon Marshall
20% Eric Decker
20% Amari Cooper
20% Brandon LaFell
15% Michael Crabtree
15% Donte Moncrief
When a player is close to iffy status for Sunday, I typically fade them compared to their natural ownership projection on my board for Thursday-locking contests. Danny Amendola and Jarvis Landry were receivers who fit the category this week and I hedged down their ownership some just in case. I can always put them in more Sunday contests to even out their final status if they are looking good leading up to kickoff. With Amendola's status, I boosted LaFell closer to 25% as a result. He would see a boost if Amendola were iffy or out later in the week.
As mentioned in the quarterback edition, stacking is important even with three players from the same offense. The Jets are good example as much of their passing game runs through Marshall and Decker. The cheapest receiver on this list is Kamar Aiken at $6,100 - higher than most weeks on my board. The higher salaries at this position work out though, as running backs are more affordable as well as no Rob Gronkowski at tight end to fit under the cap.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Running Backs
The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my running back board for Week 13 early contests:
45% DeAngelo Williams
30% David Johnson
30% Shaun Draughn
30% Devonta Freeman
20% Jonathan Stewart
15% Doug Martin
15% Javorius Allen
10% Giovani Bernard
There is an ideal mix of salaries with one elite-priced option (Freeman), a few medium-priced backs like Williams, Stewart, Martin, Allen and finally value plays like Johnson, Draughn, and Bernard.
The final four names on the list have the best matchups of the week, while the top half are the top Footballguys projections for their salary. It is vital to mix running backs well as a single touchdown can tilt their value for the week and game script plays a big role.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
45% DeAngelo Williams
30% David Johnson
30% Shaun Draughn
30% Devonta Freeman
20% Jonathan Stewart
15% Doug Martin
15% Javorius Allen
10% Giovani Bernard
There is an ideal mix of salaries with one elite-priced option (Freeman), a few medium-priced backs like Williams, Stewart, Martin, Allen and finally value plays like Johnson, Draughn, and Bernard.
The final four names on the list have the best matchups of the week, while the top half are the top Footballguys projections for their salary. It is vital to mix running backs well as a single touchdown can tilt their value for the week and game script plays a big role.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Quarterbacks
Thursday is my main day for creating my weekly FanDuel 'board' of my market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together, I create my market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my quarterback board for Week 13 early contests:
30% Cam Newton
20% Matt Hasselbeck
15% Andy Dalton
15% Alex Smith
15% Jay Cutler
10% Ryan Fitzpatrick
10% Tom Brady
5% Ryan Tannehill
I also threw in a Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins stack each for tournament play outside of the above mix.
Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.
Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are top Footballguys projections, along with top matchups of the week. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill have strong matchups only. Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, and Jay Cutler are the strong projection group.
The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
30% Cam Newton
20% Matt Hasselbeck
15% Andy Dalton
15% Alex Smith
15% Jay Cutler
10% Ryan Fitzpatrick
10% Tom Brady
5% Ryan Tannehill
I also threw in a Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins stack each for tournament play outside of the above mix.
Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.
Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are top Footballguys projections, along with top matchups of the week. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill have strong matchups only. Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith, and Jay Cutler are the strong projection group.
The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
Follow @ChadParsonsNFL
Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 13
Week 13 is about to be under way and as always, the
Footballguys staff has put together some cash play lineups for FanDuel.
You can see all the staff picks here
while I have cherry picked some of the selections I thought were interesting
for our discussion.
Staff
Trends
Cam Newton
Cam Newton makes another appearance in the staff
lineups, gracing five of ten lineups. While $9000 is pretty pricey (it makes
him the second in overall quarterback pricing behind Tom Brady at $9400) Newton
has been consistently productive, especially with the rushing yards and
touchdowns improving his overall numbers.
I also have to like Jay Cutler against San Francisco
as it seems as though he should be very productive against that defense. He got
two starts from the staff and is well priced at $7000.
David Johnson
Eight of the ten staff members grabbed rookie
running back David Johnson. The St. Louis matchup is less than ideal but he
should get plenty of carries and $5900 is a heck of a price. He’s at least an
RB2 and a back like that for this price is hard to pass on. The downside is, if
we’re any indication, he’ll be heavily owned, though that’s not a huge issue in
cash games.
Alshon Jeffery
Six staff members are using Alshon Jeffery, who appears
to be healthy and ready to go against San Francisco. At $7700 he’s well-priced
for what should be WR1 production. Both Cutler owners started Jeffery as well,
and it’s a nice, inexpensive stack. We expect him to put up some solid numbers
this week.
Glaring
Omissions
Despite being back and 100 percent, Devonta Freeman
isn’t on anyone’s roster, while Julio Jones only was selected once. As often
has been the case, there is no Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.
Diamonds
in the Rough
I mentioned
Johnson and Cutler, who are absolutely bargains, but so is quarterback Matt Hasselbeck ($6500). As Chris Feery
mentions in our FanDuel
Value article: “He's thrown
for two touchdowns in each of his last three games and faces off with a
Steelers team that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns over its last three games.”
Feery also had Scott Chandler ($5300) in lineups. It
looks like Rob Gronkowski will be out this weekend, which means Chandler will
get the start. The Patriots leaned on him pretty heavily even with Gronk
playing, so he should see targets with him out.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)