Thursday, December 3, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Wide Receivers

The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my wide receiver board for Week 13 early contests:

30% Antonio Brown
25% Danny Amendola
25% DeAndre Hopkins
25% Alshon Jeffery
20% Larry Fitzgerald
20% Kamar Aiken
20% Jarvis Landry
20% Brandon Marshall
20% Eric Decker
20% Amari Cooper
20% Brandon LaFell
15% Michael Crabtree
15% Donte Moncrief

When a player is close to iffy status for Sunday, I typically fade them compared to their natural ownership projection on my board for Thursday-locking contests. Danny Amendola and Jarvis Landry were receivers who fit the category this week and I hedged down their ownership some just in case. I can always put them in more Sunday contests to even out their final status if they are looking good leading up to kickoff. With Amendola's status, I boosted LaFell closer to 25% as a result. He would see a boost if Amendola were iffy or out later in the week.

As mentioned in the quarterback edition, stacking is important even with three players from the same offense. The Jets are good example as much of their passing game runs through Marshall and Decker. The cheapest receiver on this list is Kamar Aiken at $6,100 - higher than most weeks on my board. The higher salaries at this position work out though, as running backs are more affordable as well as no Rob Gronkowski at tight end to fit under the cap.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.


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