Thursday, December 3, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Running Backs

The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my running back board for Week 13 early contests:

45% DeAngelo Williams
30% David Johnson
30% Shaun Draughn
30% Devonta Freeman
20% Jonathan Stewart
15% Doug Martin
15% Javorius Allen
10% Giovani Bernard

There is an ideal mix of salaries with one elite-priced option (Freeman), a few medium-priced backs like Williams, Stewart, Martin, Allen and finally value plays like Johnson, Draughn, and Bernard.

The final four names on the list have the best matchups of the week, while the top half are the top Footballguys projections for their salary. It is vital to mix running backs well as a single touchdown can tilt their value for the week and game script plays a big role.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.

1 comment: