The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my tight end board for Week 13 early contests:
25% Delanie Walker
20% Greg Olsen
15% Travis Kelce
15% Jordan Reed
15% Scott Chandler
5% Kyle Rudolph
5% Julius Thomas
Without Rob Gronkowski or a glaring value play, the tight end position turns into a 5-player tier at the top. All are similarly-priced and two - Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce - have elite matchups. Rudolph and Thomas have top matchups, but low Footballguys projections, making them diversification plays at 5% each. I boosted Chandler when constructing lineups closer to 20% as he cheaper than the options above him at $5,300 and Danny Amendola's status could boost Chandler into the weekend contests on my board.
The tight end position is heavily-slanted towards who scores a touchdown as most see lower volume than their wide receiver peers. Therefore the positional ownership in my portfolio is typically more muted at the top - not going 'all in' on a single tight end as much as running back and wide receiver. Rarely will a tight end hit 40% ownership on my weekly board.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
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ReplyDeleteReally solid breakdown of your Week 13 tight end portfolio. I like how you kept ownership balanced instead of going heavy on a single TE, especially in a week without Gronk or a clear value standout. Your point about touchdown dependence is key—tight ends can swing contests, but the volatility makes diversification smart.
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