Thursday, December 3, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Kickers and Defenses

The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here are my kicker and defense boards for Week 13 early contests:

35% Stephen Gostkowski
20% Graham Gano
20% Chris Boswell
15% Mike Nugent
10% Robbie Gould

Like with tight ends, I rarely hit 40% with a singular kicker. Gostkowski is in a tier by himself for Week 13, therefore is nearly double the Gano-Boswell tier, while keeping his ownership in the 30s. Kickers are usually the easiest ownership rates to manage while constructing lineups as they vary by a few hundred in salary from highest to lowest. In a given week anywhere from four to six kickers will make the final list with a healthy mix of ownership.

30% Chicago
20% Cincinnati
20% New England
15% Washington
10% Arizona
5%   Denver

Chicago and Washington are ideal as their salaries are bottom-of-the-barrel at $4,400 against questionable quarterbacks. Targeting weak quarterbacks, especially when they are on the road, is a fast-track to creating a defense portfolio list. Ideally a defense is playing at home, with a strong Footballguys projection, and a low opposition Vegas team total for an ideal combination.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.

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