FanDuel Fades and Loss Leaders: Week 7

The danger in fading a crowd favorite is missing out on someone like Devonta Freeman while he posts another multi-touchdown day. What an incredible seven weeks he has put together. I wanted to know how incredible so I dug into the Data Dominator over at Footballguys.com and asked it to show me the best running back seasons through seven weeks (since 2002). Here are the results:



Sorted by PPR points, since that's the world we now live in, Freeman ranks eighth all time. That's a pretty damn good showing and some rare company. The top five can't be messed with. Priest Holmes opened the 2002 season with four touchdowns. He missed two games that year and still put together the fourth best fantasy performance by a running back in history.

What's interesting is Freeman is barely beating out what DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte did last year, and not as good as Jamaal Charles in 2013. So this isn't uncharted territory. It's just completely unexpected from a guy whose workout metrics are pretty gross. If he keeps up his impossible pace, there will be thousands of articles next year about why he shouldn't be the No. 1 overall pick (he is only 23).

The question for this week is should you fade him? He'll be nearly 50% owned in large tournaments--an unprecedented number. GPP logic tells us we absolutely must fade him. He is now priced as an elite running back and exposed as such. Maybe I'll be mad at myself when the dust settles and he has three touchdowns against the Titans, but I'm fading his $8,700 salary while the crowd chases historical performances.

To read who else we're fading and whose ownership percentages we're ignoring click here. Below is a short excerpt.

Player	Salary	Game	Own %	Player	Salary	Game	Own %
Martavis Bryant	$6900	PIT@KC	28.8	Tavon Austin	$5800	CLE@STL	3.3
Larry Fitzgerald	$7800	BAL@ARI	28.2	Danny Amendola	$5400	NYJ@NE	3.1
DeAndre Hopkins	$9200	HOU@MIA	24.8	Odell Beckham Jr.	$9000	DAL@NYG	3
John Brown	$6700	BAL@ARI	17.9	Rishard Matthews	$6400	HOU@MIA	2.9
Stefon Diggs	$5800	MIN@DET	14.5	Vincent Jackson	$6800	TB@WAS	2.8
Donte Moncrief	$6500	NO@IND	11.7	Mike Evans	$7500	TB@WAS	2.7
Travis Benjamin	$6600	CLE@STL	11.2	Michael Crabtree	$5900	OAK@SD	2.7
Julio Jones	$9100	ATL@TEN	9.7	Brandin Cooks	$6700	NO@IND	2.6
Julian Edelman	$8000	NYJ@NE	9.4	Ted Ginn Jr.	$5300	PHI@CAR	2.5
Calvin Johnson	$8400	MIN@DET	9	Michael Floyd	$4900	BAL@ARI	2.2
T.Y. Hilton	$7700	NO@IND	8.8	Golden Tate	$6700	MIN@DET	1.8
Jarvis Landry	$7100	HOU@MIA	8.6	Terrance Williams	$5900	DAL@NYG	1.5
Amari Cooper	$7300	OAK@SD	8.3	Kendall Wright	$5700	ATL@TEN	1.4
Steve Smith	$6900	BAL@ARI	8.2	Jordan Matthews	$6600	PHI@CAR	1.1
Brandon Marshall	$8200	NYJ@NE	8	Mike Wallace	$5400	MIN@DET	1
Eric Decker	$6200	NYJ@NE	7.6	Leonard Hankerson	$5700	ATL@TEN	0.8
Antonio Brown	$8300	PIT@KC	5.5	Jamison Crowder	$5800	TB@WAS	0.6
Willie Snead	$6500	NO@IND	4.7	Jeremy Maclin	$6900	PIT@KC	0.5
Pierre Garcon	$6100	TB@WAS	4.2	Rueben Randle	$5700	DAL@NYG	0.5
Keenan Allen	$8100	OAK@SD	3.9	Kamar Aiken	$5600	BAL@ARI	0.5

DeAndre Hopkins is the most expensive player on the board in Week 7, and our sixth most popular overall. No receiver has scored more fantasy points this season, with Julio Jones a distant second. Hopkins ranks high in about every category we treasure: targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns. All this despite inferior quarterback play. The Texans’ offensive line has done a good job in pass protection, which allows Hopkins to complete his routes or improvise where necessary. Those familiar with “Madden NFL” know his spectacular catch rating is one of the best; he has made some amazing grabs this season. He travels to Miami this week, who haven’t allowed a lot of touchdowns, but have struggled against No. 1 receivers, ranking 30^th in that category with 85.4 yards per game allowed according to FootballOutsiders. Despite his salary and exposure, fading Hopkins is not advised (though, if you’re looking for a pivot play, Jones should have a similar box score).

Don’t. Get. Cute. We get it. Recency bias and all. Stefon Diggs, for $5,800 doesn’t need to do much to hit tournament value. But with the crowd all over him, he’s just not worth it. His salary increase of $1,300 is more than any other player. Yes, he has worked his way into a WR2 role in the Vikings offense, who matchup well against the Lions as road favorites. But we think Adrian Peterson does all the damage with Teddy Bridgewater and Co. serving as complements. For better or for worse, Diggs is this week’s Julian Edelman: he may rack up a fair number of receptions and yards, but touchdowns win tournaments, and his chances of scoring are low.

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