My first step when I set out to construct a lot of lineups is to decide how much exposure I want to each individual player. There's no uniquely correct answer to that question. If I concentrate on filling my rosters with just the handful of players I determine to offer the most value, I will have a higher expected ROI but also a higher expected variance than if I go with a more diversified set of lineups. No matter how much I like Le'Veon Bell this week, it is very risky to put him in every lineup. First-quarter injuries happen. Other negative possibilities exist as well.
If I think Le'Veon Bell is a terrific play this week, the more lineups I have that include him, the more I should expect to profit, on average -- but also the greater the swings I will have. I'm not a gambler at heart, so I don't want huge up-and-down swings if I can help it. (I don't really mind the "up" part; it's the "down" part I seek to avoid. But the two come as a package deal.)
Two general rules that I try to live by are: (1) If Player A offers more value than Player B, I want Player A on my roster more often than Player B; and (2) Except in very rare situations, I don't want any player in more than about half of my lineups.
Point number one raises the additional question of how much more often I want Player A than Player B based on their respective values. That's the part that's largely a matter of taste -- it depends on how much risk I'm willing to take, or how much expected ROI I'm willing to sacrifice in order to reduce my risk.
What I've personally settled on, at least for the time being, is that I want my ownership percentages to be proportional to H-values raised to the fourth power. To determine H-values (described in Chapter 4 of the Cracking FanDuel book), I use a combination of my own projections and those of David Dodds and Sigmund Bloom.
In my 100 GPP lineups this week, here are my targets for how many lineups each player will appear in:
| LeVeon Bell | 55 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 29 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 27 |
| Devonta Freeman | 24 |
| Jamaal Charles | 23 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 18 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 18 |
| Julio Jones | 18 |
| Julian Edelman | 17 |
| Keenan Allen | 15 |
| Randall Cobb | 15 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 14 |
| Charles Clay | 14 |
| Martellus Bennett | 14 |
| Antonio Brown | 12 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 12 |
| Jason Witten | 12 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | 12 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12 |
| Justin Forsett | 11 |
| Eddie Lacy | 11 |
| Jordan Matthews | 10 |
| Matt Bryant | 10 |
| NY Giants | 10 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 |
| Tom Brady | 9 |
| Matt Forte | 9 |
| Allen Robinson | 9 |
| James Jones | 9 |
| Cairo Santos | 9 |
| Mason Crosby | 9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 |
| Todd Gurley | 8 |
| Dion Lewis | 8 |
| A.J. Green | 8 |
| Amari Cooper | 7 |
| Allen Hurns | 7 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 |
| John Brown | 7 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 |
| Alex Smith | 6 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 |
| Calvin Johnson | 6 |
| Delanie Walker | 6 |
| Josh Brown | 6 |
| Josh Lambo | 6 |
| Justin Tucker | 6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 |
| Eli Manning | 5 |
| Philip Rivers | 5 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 |
| Kamar Aiken | 5 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 5 |
| Terrance Williams | 5 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 |
| Brandon McManus | 5 |
| Chandler Catanzaro | 5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 |
| Michael Vick | 4 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 |
| Doug Martin | 4 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 |
| Mike Evans | 4 |
| Antonio Gates | 4 |
| Caleb Sturgis | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 |
| Sam Bradford | 3 |
| Derek Carr | 3 |
| Josh McCown | 3 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 |
| Drew Brees | 3 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 |
| Willie Snead | 3 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 |
| Marquess Wilson | 3 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 |
| Mike Nugent | 3 |
| Dan Carpenter | 3 |
| Chris Boswell | 3 |
| New England Patriots | 3 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 |
| Nick Foles | 2 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 |
| Zach Hocker | 2 |
| Matt Prater | 2 |
| Dan Bailey | 2 |
| Dustin Hopkins | 2 |
| Steve Hauschka | 2 |
| Oakland Raiders | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 2 |
| Detroit Lions | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 |
| Ryan Succop | 1 |
| Jason Myers | 1 |
| Sebastian Janikowski | 1 |
| Greg Zuerlein | 1 |
| Travis Coons | 1 |
| Phil Dawson | 1 |
| Robbie Gould | 1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 1 |
(My cash-game lineups will have much, much less diversification.)
You sue this your GPP play list? Looks like a fantasy football popularity contest list.
ReplyDeleteAnd how many games are you entering the 100 lineups? 100? 1,000?
ReplyDeleteDid this strategy win you any money in Week 5? I wish my bank roll was bigger to try something like this but I'm sticking with 90% cash games and 10% GPP for now.
ReplyDeleteIt looks a little, but not completely, like a DFS popularity list -- which is kind of the point. (I'll elaborate in my next post.)
ReplyDeleteI had about 280 GPP lineups -- 100 of them were in a $1 contests just to get my rosters all loaded using the Rotogrinders Chrome extension. After they were loaded, it still took a few hours to distribute them to the contests I'd previously entered with a dummy lineup using FanDuel's import function.
I will answer Proud Papa's question in my next post on this subject.
This week, I'm targeting a few high-potential ownerships on top business rating sites. I've identified Truereviews with strong customer reviews and consistent performance over the last few months. My focus is on businesses that not only have high ratings but also engage actively with their customer base.
ReplyDelete