Contrarian Plays: Week 9

As you already know, finding a contrarian option doesn't mean drilling to the bottom of a depth chart and rostering a low-cost player on the off chance that they luck into a touchdown or see more playing time thanks to an in-game injury. Contrarianism is more about under-owned players and less about being unique for the sake of uniqueness.

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. were under-owned last week. The matchup should have begged us to roll that stack in a lot of tournament rosters. Everything looks obvious in hindsight, of course. But we can chalk it up as lessons learned: starting elite players when the crowd is shy makes for a better contrarian play than a deep roster Hail Mary.

So remember that on Sunday morning when you're clicking submit for the final time. Consider that, maybe, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are this week's Manning and Beckham Jr. Or maybe this is the week for a Broncos power stack of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Remember that Vegas isn't interested in being right; they're interested in being equal, as in, equal amounts of money on both sides of a bet. So fading Vegas, as in, ignoring an over/under (like the Colts/Broncos 45.5 points) is a great way to be contrarian.

With that in mind, here is an excerpt from this week's contrarian plays:

Player	Salary	Game	Own %	Player	Salary	Game	Own %
Alshon Jeffery	$7900	CHI@SD	20.3	Brandon LaFell	$5200	WAS@NE	4.3
Odell Beckham Jr.	$9000	NYG@TB	19.7	Rishard Matthews	$6500	MIA@BUF	3.7
Malcom Floyd	$6100	CHI@SD	18.1	James Jones	$6000	GB@CAR	3.3
Julian Edelman	$8000	WAS@NE	16.8	Randall Cobb	$7400	GB@CAR	3.3
Julio Jones	$9200	ATL@SF	15.4	Ted Ginn Jr.	$5300	GB@CAR	2.9
Antonio Brown	$8700	OAK@PIT	13.2	Allen Hurns	$6800	JAC@NYJ	2.2
Michael Crabtree	$5800	OAK@PIT	13.2	Jordan Matthews	$6300	PHI@DAL	1.5
Amari Cooper	$7300	OAK@PIT	12.7	Robert Woods	$4900	MIA@BUF	1.5
Tavon Austin	$5700	STL@MIN	10.9	Dez Bryant	$7900	PHI@DAL	1.2
T.Y. Hilton	$7700	DEN@IND	9.7	Donte Moncrief	$6400	DEN@IND	1
Mike Evans	$7500	NYG@TB	9.6	Pierre Garcon	$6300	WAS@NE	1
Steve Johnson	$5400	CHI@SD	9.3	Brandon Marshall	$8100	JAC@NYJ	0.7
Brandin Cooks	$7100	TEN@NO	9	Dwayne Harris	$5300	NYG@TB	0.7
Demaryius Thomas	$8400	DEN@IND	8.6	Davante Adams	$5100	GB@CAR	0.7
Jarvis Landry	$7000	MIA@BUF	8.6	Dorial Green-Beckham	$4900	TEN@NO	0.6
Willie Snead	$6100	TEN@NO	8.6	Sammy Watkins	$6200	MIA@BUF	0.5
Eric Decker	$6300	JAC@NYJ	7.1	Terrance Williams	$5600	PHI@DAL	0.4
Martavis Bryant	$6900	OAK@PIT	6.9	Roddy White	$5300	ATL@SF	0.4
Stefon Diggs	$7400	STL@MIN	5.6	Marquess Wilson	$4800	CHI@SD	0.3
Emmanuel Sanders	$7600	DEN@IND	5.3	Rueben Randle	$5500	NYG@TB	0.2
Allen Robinson	$7200	JAC@NYJ	4.6	Riley Cooper	$5300	PHI@DAL	0.1

We expect Steve Johnson’s ownership to be higher come Sunday, but not so high that we shouldn’t take advantage of his $5,400 salary in what will be a Monday night shootout. Only the Ravens have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers. Johnson should see plenty of targets in the Eddie Royal role.

Speaking of Royal, he’s unlikely to play in this contest so that means more snaps for Marquess Wilson. We’ve seen what he can do when featured in the Bears offense. In Week 4 and Week 5, he caught 12 of 16 targets for 165 yards and a touchdown. This week he’ll benefit from single coverage as the Chargers focus on Alshon Jeffery. You won’t find a better option for less than $5,000.

Unless, of course, you think Dorial Green-Beckham will finally make use of his size and opportunity. The report from Nashville is that the Titans want him to block better. We just want him to receive better. He’ll have his opportunities against the Saints—who were just thrashed by the other Beckham last week—with Kendall Wright injured. The return of more accurate, more mobile Marcus Mariota should help, though we’ll miss out on the gun-slinging ways of Zach Mettenberger. In any case, if the Titans can get their offense going in the wake of firing their head coach, Green-Beckham might find the endzone once or twice. His $4,900 salary does a lot for the rest of our roster.

In his first game since Week 1, Dez Bryant caught only two passes for 12 yards. But he was anything but quiet. Matt Cassel targeted him six times, more than any other receiver including Jason Witten. Unfortunately, Richard Sherman was all over Bryant, who may not be full speed just yet. He’ll have an easier time against the Eagles, who look a lot better on the stat sheet (they lead the league in takeaways) than they do on the field. They’re allowing only 31.5 FanDuel points per game to receivers, but when they’ve faced a true No. 1 they’ve been burned. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, and even Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead have had their way against this secondary. Bryant’s $7,900 salary is the lowest it has been since 2011—long before Bradley C. won his $349. Fire Bryant up as a contrarian play and pray Cassel gets things turned around.

Now might be the time to take advantage of Brandon LaFell. His $5,200 price tag is a steal considering the Patriots are projected to score 33 points and are favored by two touchdowns. He has been targeted 15 times over the last two games and played on 87 percent of snaps last week. The Washington secondary has been getting pushed around lately, having allowed 400 yards and four touchdowns in their last two games. This a great week for LaFell to get back. His salary makes it possible to roster Touchdown Tom and still build a quality lineup.

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