Week 12 Wideouts: A Choice in Luxury Options

Wide receivers are expensive at FanDuel for a reason -- they're usually pretty good. Case in point, the four most expensive guys this week are DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr, and Antonio Brown.

Each of them has unique appeal for Week 12 contests. So which one(s) do you choose for your lineup? Here's my thought process for each receiver heading into Sunday contests.


DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($9,400) vs. New Orleans

This is as chalk as they get. Hopkins was nearly 50 percent owned in Thursday contests, and that number is only going to go up for the Sunday slate with fewer games to choose from.

Hopkins will be in many of my lineups this week by virtue of that ridiculously good matchup against New Orleans -- the Saints have given up 10 touchdowns to receivers in their past four games, and Hopkins has dominated far better competition as of late. I have avoided inserting him into too many lineups, though, minding exposure not to mention his ownership percentage.

Hopkins is a must-start in cash games, however -- ride or die with everyone else.


Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($9,300) vs. Minnesota

I wasn't terribly interested in rostering Julio Jones earlier in the week. For starters, you could have Hopkins in a great matchup for just $100 more. The Falcons offense has sputtered recently, Devonta Freeman is out with a concussion -- which could stall the offense if Tevin Coleman can't get things going -- and Minnesota has a pretty good defense.

News broke earlier this morning that safety Harrison Smith would miss the game for the Vikings, however, which piqued my interest. Suddenly that matchup wasn't so tough. Jones made his way into a few of my lineups after that, both to fade Hopkins a bit and pivot from Antonio Brown if you have some money to spare. More on that in a minute.

Odell Beckham Jr, WR, New York Giants ($9,100) @ Washington

There isn't much to say here, really.

Washington's defense has been its usual generous self this season, including 79 yards and a score to Odell Beckham Jr earlier this season. He is an excellent cash game option that will save you a few bucks over Hopkins and Jones, but his ownership percentage will probably be pretty high as well.

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($9,000) @ Seattle

Will Richard Sherman shadow Antonio Brown? That is the big question for potential fantasy owners as speculation that will be the case runs rampant.

The Seahawks have actually given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing receivers, and the Steelers can move Brown around to get him the ball. He was an excellent pivot from Hopkins for me. But the latest rumors of Sherman shadowing Brown, though, has me nervous. I took him out of a couple of lineups -- though still rolling with him in a few others -- and looked to Martavis Bryant for a GPP bump elsewhere.

Having trouble finding more than one spot for an expensive wideout? There is plenty of room for two if you play your cards right. In fact, here is a GPP lineup with three of them.

Good luck this week!

Week 12 Early FanDuel Ownership Highlights

The 'Projecting Ownership' post collects early-locking FanDuel ownership data to analyze plays for tournaments and cash games on Sunday. Here are a few tidbits from the article, find the entire post at Footballguys.com:

CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK

Carson Palmer is in his own tier of ownership at 19%. The game script should be positive against San Francisco, allowed 311 yards and two scores to Palmer back in Week 3, a comfortable Arizona victory.

Thomas Rawls and Doug Martin are the slam dunk high-ownership running back plays. Both eclipsed the 25% mark and are coming off highly productive games in Week 11. Of the two, the Colts (Doug Martin) are the much better matchup of the two, giving up huge games to Mark Ingram and T.J. Yeldon of note. Devonta Freeman was ripping the Colts (3-43-0) before his early exit last week.

AGAINST THE GRAIN

Donte Moncrief and a pair of Seattle options, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, are notable receivers with 1.5% ownership or less. The Steelers are a top-5 matchup, allowing six different wide receivers to surpass 60 yards in the past two games. All three are below $6,000 as affordable WR3 plays in tournaments.

The Seahawks have been an optimistic matchup for tight ends and Heath Miller is up in Week 12. Miller had 1.8% ownership on Thursday. Vance McDonald had a strong day last week against Seattle (4-65-1), Jermaine Gresham found the end zone in Week 10 of recent note. 

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Exposed: Week 12

Here is a snippet from this week's Exposed, which can be found on FBG main:

GOOD MATCHUPS Jarvis Landry, WR, MIA @ NYJ ($7,000) 

Miglio: The Dolphins offense isn’t very good right now, and the Jets defense is great. One of those statements is false. 

The latter statement was true as of a few weeks ago, but injuries and decline have hammered New York as of late. Darrelle Revis was smoked by Houston receiver DeAndre Hopkins before being concussed, and Revis Island might be closed for repairs over the next week or two. 

Rudnicki: Revis spent some time shadowing Landry in their earlier matchup, but he’s in danger of missing this matchup due to a concussion. That would really leave a huge hole in the Jets secondary as Buster Skrine is playing through an injury, and Antonio Cromartie is struggling a bit. Even if Revis were able to play, he hasn’t looked very impressive the past several weeks, so there is certainly an opportunity for Landry to post a big game here. 

BAD MATCHUPS 

Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN @ ATL ($6,600) 

Miglio: Desmond Trufant has been excellent this season for the Falcons, a big reason why Atlanta has allowed just three touchdowns to opposing receivers. Stefon Diggs is next in Trufant’s sights. 

Rudnicki: Although Atlanta seems to be slipping overall, their pass defense has been surprisingly strong. Over the past five games, they have only allowed one touchdown to an opposing receiver and none have gone over five catches and 50 yards in the same game. Diggs has also cooled off the past few weeks as the Vikings passing game has remained generally unimpressive.

FanDuel Week 12: The Contrarian

Among the great posts at Footballguys.com each week getting DFS player ready for FanDuel action, The Contrarian centers are finding under-owned players worthy of tournament lineups. Find the entire post at Footballguys and here is an except of a sparsely-owned player from Thursday night tournaments:

Crockett Gillmore and Heath Miller stand out of the low-ownership group as quality tournament options. While Matt Schaubis shaky-at-best as a innate DFS play, he has produced for tight ends in his career with Joel Dreessen, Garrett Graham, and Owen Daniels of note. Gillmore leads Baltimore in red zone targets and by a large margin since Steve Smith's season ended with injury. While the Browns have allowed a low 39 receptions to tight ends on the season, eight touchdowns to tight ends is near the top of the NFL, including five touchdowns between oversized options Tyler Eifert and Troy Niklas in recent weeks. Seattle is stingy against wide receivers, but not so much versus tight ends. Vance McDonald had a career day of 4-65-1 against Seattle last week, Jermaine Gresham found the end zone in Week 10, and off-the-radar options Lance Kendricks and Richard Rodgers found paydirt earlier in the season. Miller is minimally-priced at $5,300 and Ben Roethlisberger back under center aids the entire passing game outlook.



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FanDuel Week 12 Players to Fade

Over at Footballguys.com the full article is posted on using early ownership rates to construct cash and tournament lineups. Here is one highly-owned player to fade for week:

Of the top-5 owned quarterbacks, Drew Brees stands out. The Saints have struggled mightily on defense, which is likely to squeeze their offensive chances. Plus, Brees is one of the higher variance home-road quarterbacks in the NFL. 

This year Brees is a 5837-45-10 passer (yards-touchdowns-interceptions) on a 16-game pace at home via RotoViz. On the flip side, Brees is a pedestrian 4616-24-20 on the road. In traditional fantasy the mantra has been start Brees at home and fade him on the road; DFS is the same mindset - mix Brees into your lineup card at home, but fade this week.



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FanDuel Week 12 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 12 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Kansas City Chiefs ($4,500) + Spencer Ware ($6,100) = $10,600

The Chiefs are the chalk play at defense this week, hosting the Bills at Arrowhead. The Bills offense has regressed, and Tyrod Taylor is banged up. The Chiefs are on a four-game winning streak and haven't allowed 19 points in a game since Week 4. Running backs have overperformed fantasy-wise by 35 percent against the Bills over the past five weeks. As of Thursday night, it seems unlikely that Charcandrick West will play, making this a no-brainer pairing of cheap, chalky goodness.

Week 12 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 12 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.

Staff Friday Cash Plays - Week 12

Hello, all of us at Footballguys.com hope you had a very Happy Thanksgiving (like Matthew Stafford's, Cam Newton's, and Jay Cutler's!).

Looking forward to the weekend slate of games, it is time for the Staff Friday Cash Plays - as always, I commend to the reader Dr. Jene Bramel's and Craig Zumsteg's injury articles for your reference before setting your weekend DFS lineups.

Reviewing the Staff lineups, one thing is clear - The Footballguys have a man-crush on Thomas Rawls ($6,300) - he is on every lineup submitted for Week 12 as of the time I post this on the Cracking FanDuel Blog. As Chris Feery points out in his comment, the price is almost too good to be true considering Rawl's 30/209/1 rushing and 3/46/1 receiving performance last week. Pittsburgh's rush D is a tougher nut to crack than San Francisco's, but Seattle's rushing attack is MUCH better than Cleveland's which posted the anemic 14/15/0 rushing against Pittsburgh last week.

Also very popular is T.J. Yeldon ($6,500), rostered four times due to his prime matchup against the injury-riddled Chargers (in the process of completely imploding in all facets of the game) - however, I will point out that Yeldon has just ONE rushing score this season (and, in fact, that is the ONLY rushing TD the Jaguars have produced as a team this year). Yeldon is on four of eight staff lineups, but he is not on mine. Yeldon has amassed 147/585/1 rushing and 27/153/1 receiving to check in at 26th among all fantasy backs so far this year - is Week 12 the week he breaks out with a huge game? Four Footballguys are betting he will.

Also featured on all eight Staff lineups this week - DeAndre Hopkins ($9,400) going against the ultra-generous New Orleans pass D (over the past four weeks, the Saints were first in fantasy points allowed to QBs (36.3 per game on average); fourth in fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.0 per game); and first in fantasy points allowed to tight ends at 17.5). Brian Hoyer ($7,100) is stacked with Hopkins on three of the eight staff lineups submitted at posting time.

The Giants' passing attack is also well-represented with Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,100) appearing on three lineups - he is stacked with Eli Manning ($7,700) on two of eight rosters. The Washington D is among the top-ten most generous concerning fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers over the past four weeks (three games played), with wide receivers earning 28.1 per game (eighth-most in the NFL) and quarterbacks gaining 24.1 (fifth-most in the league). Tight ends don't do as well (only 6.2 fantasy points per game on average, 23rd in the NFL), so Will Tye ($4,900) isn't rostered by anyone. 

There isn't a strong consensus on tight ends - Delanie Walker ($6,100) and Gary Barnidge ($6,500) are the most-frequently rostered at two-of-eight lineups apiece.

Arizona ($5,300) is the most-favored team defense this week, with three staffers plugging the Cardinals in against the woeful 49ers' "attack".

Enjoy the NFL action this weekend, everyone, even as y'all enjoy your left-over turkey sandwiches!

Week 12 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 12 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss Austin's lip-sync tribute to Alanis Morissette and find out why his DubSmash loss was so "Ironic."

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving! FanDuel did an interesting thing this week, giving you the option to play just the Thanksgiving Day games.

So this week, our Thursday cash picks on the staff are just from games played on Thursday. We want you to have a little extra greens with your turkey and stuffing and we ain’t talking salad. I’ve looked the lineups over and as always, have a few things to share that jumped out at me.

You can see all the staff picks here.

Since you have very limited options at each position, I’ll break form our usual format and talk about each of the major skill positions separately.

On behalf of the Footballguys staff, let me also wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving.

Staff Trends

Quarterbacks

Matt Stafford and Cam Newton get the most love from the staff, with one nod each to Mark Sanchez and Aaron Rodgers. For myself, I like the combination of cost and consistency with Newton. He has put up good points most weeks and while $8900 isn’t cheap, his combination of passing yards and touchdowns with his rushing production is worth it. Stafford is a better price ($7200) with the requisite “who knows what you’ll get from him” though the Eagles defense did get blown up so I see the attraction this weekend.

I wouldn’t be all that excited about Sanchez as the last two weeks haven’t been awesome. Still, a pair of touchdowns and 261 yards is nice, even if tempered a bit by three picks. Again I don’t love Sanchez but he’s not only cheap at $6700 but probably lightly owned.

Running Backs

There’s a lot of belief among the staff that Jonathan Stewart is a solid play at $7100 and after a really nice weekend against Washington, we think he can approach the same numbers against Dallas. Even if this gets too far out of hand I think Carolina will keep running him as they did last week right into the fourth quarter before they shut him down.

Eddie Lacy also got some run, and while you don’t want to go overboard based on last week, he should get close to the same carries as he did against Minnesota (22) and should be close to 100 yards. He might even see the end zone. At $6500 I love his upside.

Darren McFadden ended up a little pricey for my taste this week ($8100) and I think he will struggle a little against a tough Carolina defense. Still, Dallas will run him a lot and with Tony Romo back, he will see less stacked fronts.

Wide Receivers

The usual suspects are all here—Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant. Randall Cobb. But you can add in some Devin Funchess, some James Jones (a lot of James Jones) and a little Golden Tate.

Funchess is a little risky, even at $5900, but I liked what I saw from him last weekend and believe that Cam Newton will look for him a bunch on Thursday. If he can hang onto the ball, he could see a ton of targets since the Panthers have few other options aside from Greg Olsen.

At $6300, Tate has a ton of upside and as we know Calvin Johnson will get a ton of attention, you can bet Stafford will look at Tate again this week. We’re hoping the 11 targets are more of a trend than an aberration and truth be told, the offense needs to utilize Tate more in general.

Of the “big boys” I like Bryant the most, and though he may have a tough matchup, I do believe he will see a continue increase in production in this game. Bryant loves the spotlight and home on Thanksgiving is his kind of game.

The riskiest pick is Randall Cobb, who I dipped in with like several others. Cobb is heavily targeted but also has been dropping the ball like it is radioactive. I’m betting this is the week he and Aaron Rodgers are on the same page which means he will more than match the value of his $7400 price tag.

The risk is, of course, he is targeted a ton and doesn’t make the catches. Over the last three weeks he has seen 31 targets and made just 11 catches. That’s brutal but the good news is, one of those games resulted in a 99-yard performance and two of them produced touchdowns.

Tight Ends

It’s all about Greg Olsen, as the majority of staff have him as their tight end. I’m been rolling out Olsen/Newton pairings the last few weeks and it has worked for me (especially last week). I did like (and was also tempted to do it) the addition of Richard Rodgers as he is cheap at $5200 and has scored touchdowns in two of the last three games. He was targeted in the red zone all three of those games as well, though Cobb got a lot more of those types of looks.

Brent Celek should have a starting gig again against the Lions, and has back to back weeks of 70-yard plus games. We’d like to see him in the end zone for the price, but he saw a ton of targets last weekend and caught most of them. It’s clear Mark Sanchez likes him.

Week 11 Exposed

Check out this week's Exposed, where we look at good and bad matchups for wide receivers and tight ends. An excerpt:

GOOD MATCHUPS 

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET vs. OAK ($8,100)Golden Tate, WR, DET vs. OAK ($6,200)Eric Ebron, TE, DET vs. OAK ($5,400) 

Miglio: It’s cherries jubilee for the Detroit passing offense. About the only issue here is the fact there will only be so many targets to go around. Unless Matthew Stafford throws 62 passes, anyway. 

Rudnicki: The Raiders got a small boost to their secondary when they activated CB T.J. Carrie off IR and sent David Amerson back to the bench, but this is still one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Vikings didn’t really test them last week as they had plenty of success with the run game, but the Lions can’t run on anybody. This is a great matchup for the Lions passing game with the only real concern being the Raiders pass rush not giving Matthew Stafford much time in the pocket. 

BAD MATCHUPS 

T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND @ ATL ($7,200) 

Miglio: Josh Norman has gotten all the new-generation hype at cornerback this season, but Desmond Trufant has quietly become one of the better corners in the league, too. He figures to shadow T.Y.  Hilton, who has Matt Hasselbeck throwing passes to him for the foreseeable future. 

Rudnicki: Hilton figures to see a lot of Desmond Trufant this week, who hasn’t given up much to anybody all year. The change at QB to Matt Hasselbeck also suggests a bigger focus on the short and intermediate passing game, which likely helps Andre Johnson and hurts Hilton.

Staff Friday Cash Plays

The annual Turkey-and-Pro-Football Harvest Festival (aka. Thanksgiving) is just around the corner, and the Footballguys are charging into Week 11 with another round of Friday Staff Cash Plays - thanks for checking in and reviewing our guys' angles on this weekend's games!

As kickoff approaches, I urge everyone to take a few moments of your prep time to check out Dr. Jene Bramel's and Craig Zumsteg's injury coverage at Footballguys.com - you'll be glad you did! 

Reviewing this week's roster selections, Darren McFadden ($6,800) is getting a lot of love from the staff (he's on seven out of 12 rosters submitted by the time of this post) - but there is a red flag here because McFadden has either suffered a new groin injury as of Wednesday or aggravated a preexisting groin injury (how long he's been dealing with the injury is unclear - McFadden was not on the Week 10 injury report). Perhaps there was more to last week's dud of a game against Tampa than we knew heading into Week 10. In any case, keep tabs on McFadden's status heading into the Sunday games, everyone!

The Other Johnson - as Andrew Garda noted on Staff Thursday Cash Plays, Stevie, and not Calvin, Johnson is a popular play this week, and that trend continued into the weekend lineups -  seven rosters feature Stevie Johnson ($5,600) as one of their three wideouts - the injuries to Keenan Allen (lacerated kidney, on IR) and Malcom Floyd (torn labrum in his shoulder, out this weekend) have devolved the #1 wide receiver role onto Johnson's shoulders. We'll see if he thrives in that capacity (readers will note that I am in the minority here, but I am avoiding Johnson this week until we see how he does as the lead Chargers' receiver). 

Cams and Carrs - Cam Newton ($8,600) and Derek Carr ($7,700) are both in favorable matchups against defensively-challenged teams - the Footballguys' staff has responded by featuring each quarterback on three of the 12 rosters in play (25% of the rosters for each player). Newton is stacked with Greg Olsen ($6,400) twice, while Carr is paired with Amari Cooper ($7,200) and Michael Crabtree ($6,500) once each. As individuals, Cooper is on four rosters while Crabtree shows up in three instances - the Staff (as a collective) is not sure which receiver will generate a better value during Week 11 - or it may be because the Lions are so sorry that everyone expects both guys to have huge games...

Seahawks and Panthers and Bears - here's why! - Seattle is the clear consensus choice with seven owners opting to go with Seattle ($5,400) clashing at home with the Blaine-Gabbert-led Santa Clara 49ers. However, the Panthers ($4,900 at home vs. Washington) and the Bears ($4,200, at home vs. the Brock Osweiler-led Broncos) both have two adherents. Each quarterback is likely going to be dared to pass the football by the respective defenses in play, and it looks like our staffers are counting on multiple turnovers and low-scoring offensive production by Santa Clara, Washington and Denver to help pad their DFS scores here in Week 11. Those sound like reasonable notions to me!

Good luck everyone! Enjoy the games on Sunday/Monday night!

FanDuel Week 11 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 11 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Alex Smith ($6,200) + Travis Kelce ($5,700) = $11,900

If you're looking to cram other high-priced players into your lineup, this is the best value stack of the week. The Chiefs are three-point favorites on the road in San Diego. And the Chargers have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games.

Twist: Jeremy Maclin ($6,300) is also a cheap alternative, but I prefer sticking with just Kelce and doubling down on the possibility of a shootout by adding cheap Chargers pass-catchers.

Shootout: I can easily imagine this game getting out of hand, and Steve Johnson ($5,600) is a fantastic value in all formats with Keenan Allen out and Ladarius Green and Malcom Floyd banged up. I'm less excited about Antonio Gates ($5,900) because of the plethora of injuries he's battling and Kansas City's strong linebacking corps.

Week 11 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 11 FanDuel show on The Audible. This week David Dodds joins Cecil Lammy and Austin Lee to dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make out-on-a-limb picks.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 11

We’re in the last week of NFL byes for teams, which means next week will give us the entire spectrum of players in the league. Of course, that’s assuming nobody manages to snap an ACL this weekend.

Which I probably just jinxed.

While we wait for the other shoe to drop, the Footballguys staff has put in their lineups for another week at FanDuel. I’ve put together some thoughts on what they did this week.

You can see all the staff picks here.

Staff Trends

Charcandrick West

West has played well and scored touchdowns for three straight weeks. As Chad Parsons wrote in this week’s FanDuel Value Article, “The Chargers are one of the best matchups for opposing running backs. At a medium-tier price, West is an ideal RB2 for Week 11 lineups.” West isn’t going to cost you much at $7100, and he could produce far beyond his value.

Raider Nation

Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both got plenty of love this week and could both be productive against Detroit. Cooper is supposed to see a lot of Glover Quin, and while we expect good production from him anyway, the Raiders have tended to feed Crabtree when Cooper is challenged. So both guys have a ton of value this week.

Variety of Tight Ends

Almost every staff member went with a different tight end and all save two were high end choices—Delanie Walker and Jacob Tamme. Gronkowski, Graham, Olsen and Gates all got rostered. So the staff isn’t shying away from the more expensive players at the position and are willing to go a little cheaper elsewhere to allow for it. The tight end pool is shallow – once you get past the top, there is little depth. Walker has been productive, as has Ben Watson while Tamme is a risky pick. Overall though, if you aren’t paying for the top guys, you’re increasing your risk factor.

Glaring Omissions

After being heavily played for most of the year, Devonta Freeman is getting faded coming off his bye week. There’s also not much Julio Jones. Both guys are there on rosters, but in much lighter numbers than the past. Same with DeAndre Hopkins (likely because his quarterback is T.J. Yates and he’s facing Darrelle Revis). The most “high end” receiver most often rostered is Larry Fitzgerald, who is on a whopping three rosters.

Diamonds in the Rough

Aside from Charcandrick West, Darren McFadden ($6800) is getting a lot of play, though he is also getting too pricey for “Diamond” status. Stevie Johnson ($5600) ended up on a lot of rosters, and he should be a huge portion of the gameplan for the Chargers this week, along with Antonio Gates.  It’s a tough matchup though, so sheer volume of targets is what we’re looking for there. Finally, Alex Smith ($6200) is a guy with a very high floor facing a shaky Chargers defense. His ceiling isn’t incredible but he won’t leave you hanging, which is the main thing when looking for value.

Week 11 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 11 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss John Lee's "Stayin' Alive" lip sync video paying off last week's DubSmash bet. Those are some sweet dance moves.

Week 10 Ownership Highlights

The Week 10 Footballguys Ownership post gets a FanDuel player ready for the ins and outs of cash and tournament lineup building for the weekend. Here is a snippet of the article this week:

CONSENSUS PLAYS OF WEEK

Another week, another high Vegas team total for the Patriots and top ownership forTom Brady. The 12% ownership from Thursday Night is a middling mark for the top quarterback in recent weeks. Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, and Blake Bortles all reside in the 9-11% range.

The Panthers and Broncos are the clear preferred ownership options for Week 10. The Broncos are at home but cost an additional $500.  Both are hovering around average in run defense (ProFootballReference Expected Points), while occupying No.1 and No.2 spots in pass defense. The Titans struggle in both categories on offense (Carolina’s matchup) plus the Panthers cost $500 less, making them the better matchup-based play of the week. Stephen Gostkowski and Brandon McManushave become regular mentions as high-ownership kickers with top-2 rates this week above 10%.

AGAINST THE GRAIN

I expected a higher ownership mark for Kirk Cousins than 7%. At $6,500 and at home against the struggling (to be kind) Saints defense is an ideal scenario. DeSean Jackson got his rusty post-injury debut out of the way in Week 9 as Cousins has a full complement of weapons for this week. Landry Jones showed competency last time filling in for Ben Roethlisberger. At $6,200 he offers a quality combination of price and pass-catcher acumen. The downside of Pittsburgh this week is getting up on Cleveland and taking the air out of the ball with a positive game script.

Oakland stands out as the low-ownership (2%) DST play of Week 10. The Vikings are above-average on the ground, but struggle as a passing offense. The Raiders offense has been hot of late and a negative game script for Minnesota would be a major boon for Oakland’s defensive chances. In addition to the matchup, Oaklans at $4,300 offers more salary cap flexibility. Of the high-scoring team Vegas projections, Mason Crosby has the lowest ownership at kicker with 3% from Thursday. At $5,000, Crosby has a similar salary to much higher owned Stephen Gostkowski, Brandon McManus, and Justin Tucker.

For the rest of the high and low ownership players, plus example tournament and cash game lineups, check out the entire post at Footballguys.com.

Week 10 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 10 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.

Staff Friday Cash Plays

The weekend approaches - it must be time for another edition of Footballguys.com's FanDuel Friday Staff Cash Plays. As always, I urge readers to research the latest injury analysis from Dr. Jene Bramel and Craig Zumsteg  before setting any DFS lineups - as my colleague Andrew Garda mentioned on Thursday, the past few weeks' injuries have upset the apple cart for more than one NFL offense.

Trends, Trends, - #1 More Ingram:  Even though Mark Ingram's ($7,500) first week without Khiry Robinson was lack-luster (22/54/0 rushing with 4/42/0 receiving) he got the football plenty and this week's matchup against a Washington rush D that surrendered 37/161/1 to the Patriots last week, after allowing Tampa Bay 30/190/0 rushing at Washington two games back, has Ingram back atop the list of backs, with five rosters featuring his presence.

Trend #2 -  And Here's to You, Mr. Robinson - not Mrs. Robinson - Allen Robinson ($7,500) is a popular pick at wide receiver, showing up on seven of nine lineups submitted by the time this post was published - he's wildly popular because of the injury concerns surrounding Allen Hurns ($7,300, listed as questionable to play due to a foot injury) and because the Baltimore pass D is very soft this year, ranking 29th in the NFL averaging 283.9 yards passing allowed per game, with a league-worst three interceptions to go with an average of two TDs allowed per game (16 total so far this year).

Gronkowski is back IN at Tight End: While showing up on 33% of rosters (three out of nine) isn't exactly a strong trend, it is an endorsement of Gronkowski's upside this week facing the wobbly Giants' pass D - especially considering his massive $8,000 salary, $1,700 more than second-most-expensive-tight-end Greg Olsen ($6,300). Olsen is only on one roster, by way of comparison.

NO Consensus at PK, D/ST - There is no strong favorite at PK or D/ST this week - in fact, only Green Bay appears twice among the defensive units ($4,900) while Mike Nugent ($4,600) is the most-utilized kicker at three rosters out of nine submitted by press time.

I hope that there is cheering in your house after this week's DFS contests, faithful readers - and not The Sounds of Silence!

FanDuel Week 10 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 10 FanDuel stacks. I cover less common stacks, defensive stacks, and twists on highly-owned stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Eli Manning ($7,400) + Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,800) = $16,200

This Giants stack is in play almost every week, but this week is especially tasty against the Patriots. If you've read my column before, you know I like teams projected to be high-scoring underdogs. Beckham will be highly owned, but Manning's Thursday ownership numbers were well below what I expected. Don't get cute and try to find a twist or triple stack for the Giants. Just play their top duo and toss a Patriots pass-catcher into the same lineup to lean into the high-scoring game script.

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 10

Week 10 is kicking off and we’re still dealing with massive injuries at too many positions. Which means research and adjustments are almost as important as managing your bankroll. 

If this year seems like it’s worse regarding high profile guys going down, that’s because it might be.

Still, the staff is here to give you some insights into how we’re handling the turmoil and what we have in store for this Thursday night’s lineups.

To see all the staff picks subscribers can head here.

Staff Trends

Cheap Quarterbacks

The staff went with some interesting selections for the quarterback position—Kirk Cousins and Blake Bortles. At $6500 and $7800 both are a lot more reasonable than the top quarterbacks who range from $9200 (Rodgers) to Drew Brees ($8600). We project both Cousins and Bortles as a borderline QB1s in FanDual’s format. If there is one hesitancy I have around Cousins it’s his refusal to go deep right now. Still, he has been taking care of the ball the last two games (4 touchdowns, 1 interception), has had a touchdown in every game this year. Bortles is risky as well, given he has turned the ball over almost as frequently as he has thrown touchdowns (4 touchdowns to 3 interceptions) over the last two weeks. It does allow you to go deeper at wide receiver and/or running back though.

McFadden

It seems like the hot running back trend this week was Darren McFadden. Five out of eight staff members used him in their lineups. Despite a 117 yard game against Philadelphia, McFadden is just $7000, a reasonable price for a starting back with upside. Tampa Bay has improved its defense but there should still be ample opportunity for McFadden to get his carries and maybe even sniff the end zone.

Allen Robinson

Robinson has been a hot property for a while assuming you’ve been paying attention. His $7500 is a good price coming off his last three games. Against the Jets he put up 121 yards, while the previous two games he was just under 100, with a touchdown each of those two games. He has caught six balls the last three weeks as well. Baltimore is not doing well defensively, so you can bet Robinson will ball. If Allen Hurns is out, expect even more from Robinson who is virtually a must play each week.

Glaring Omissions

We have both a Tom Brady and a Rob Gronkowski sighting, so it’s hard to feel like anything is missing. We’re used to no Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers or Julio Jones (who is on a bye anyway).

It does seem like Todd Gurley’s $9200 finally became too much for most of the staff. I loved playing Gurley but I have to concede that it’s too much at one position. Feery feels differently, and did a nice job having Cam Newton, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffery and Jordan Reed in his lineup though, and added DeAngelo Williams as well. If there’s a will, there’s a way.

Diamonds in the Rough

I liked Miglio’s pick of Jarvis Landry at $7000 and he could make value pretty easily this week. Tavon Austin at $6000 against the Chicago Bears is even better, though last week against Minnesota went poorly. Both you and Wimer (who made the pick) should expect a bounce-back and some value from him this week. Finally, James Starks is getting the start for the Packers against a Lions team which is ugly defensively. Starks will probably get most of the carries which makes his $6000 price tag an obvious value for Parsons.

Week 10 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 10 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. Don't miss Dan Back's lip sync video paying off last week's DubSmash bet. In full costume, he takes us on a journey to Adam Sandler's Lunch Lady Land.

Week 11 CFB MACtion Mid-Week Tuesday-Wednesday Slate Preview

As we move toward the end of the season, college football becomes non-stop. Over the next few weeks, you are going to continue to see more and more games that are on non-typical college football days. This week we have a slate starting Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. We are going to have our full slate write-ups and projections on the FanDuel landing page on Footballguys.com, but below is an abridged version of top stacks, player rankings, and value plays.

Top Stacks-

1) Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis- Outside of Corey Coleman, Roger Lewis is one of the premiere wide receivers in college football, and has the upside that very little wide receivers have. This stack is going to force you to have to go cheap at other positions, but it has the upside that no other stack has. If you are comfortable taking a chance on a few cheap players to make this work, this could win you a GPP, as these two players should both have big games against Western Michigan this week.

2) Zach Terrell and Corey Davis- Zach Terrell and Corey Davis connected for three touchdowns last week, and while we are not expecting a three touchdown game again, he has the upside to continue his streak of 7 receptions and over 100 yards. If Davis is able to do that and add a touchdown or two this stack could pay off. This will be the most popular stack on the day, so it may make sense to avoid it in a GPP, as while Davis had the big game last week, he did not score a touchdown in either of the two previous weeks.

3) Zach Terrell and Daniel Braverman- Let’s not forget about Daniel Braverman just because of two bad games in a row. Braverman is still second in overall receptions, 9th in total yardage, and 7th in touchdowns. While he has struggled over the last two games, this game is still expected to be a high scoring game, and he will be under-owned due to his recent struggles.

QB Rankings-

1) Matt Johnson- One of the elite quarterbacks in college football having thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season. He is the premiere cash game option and the only question is whether or not you are comfortable with the team that you build around him, as the price is high. While the matchup is an average one for Bowling Green it really doesn’t matter as Johnson has thrown for four or more touchdowns in four straight games.

2) Zach Terrell- While Zach Terrell had a great game, it really should have been better. Ball State was never competitive in this game, and Terrell who had over 300 yards in the first half, did not throw the ball much in the second half. This game was expected to stay within two touchdowns, so it is one of those situations where the dreaded unexpected blowout came back to hurt us. Terrell is in another great situation and this time around he is an underdog in a game that is projected to score 75 points. This is a tremendous opportunity for Terrell, as he will be forced to throw the ball a significant amount of volume to keep up with Bowling Green. Bowling Green this season has allowed 269 yards passing per game, and Terrell has the upside to easily exceed that.

3) Cooper Rush- This is the value play of the week, as going with Rush allows you to spend up elsewhere. He has thrown for over 300 yards in five of his nine games this year, and has thrown for two or more touchdowns in five straight games. With only one quarterback on FanDuel it makes it difficult to start him over Terrell or Matt Johnson due to their upside, but if you’re looking to spend up on wide receivers, Rush is a GPP option this week due to the upside if he is able to throw for 300+ yards and a few touchdowns and you're able to spend up on other players.

RB Rankings- 

1) Anthone Taylor- FanDuel has not adjusted the pricing of Anthone Taylor, and he immediately becomes the top value option on this slate at $5,900. Northern Illinois is coming off of a game where they allowed 291 yards rushing against Toledo last week. Taylor has supplanted Jordan Johnson as the number one on the depth chart and had 16 carries compared to Johnson’s 14. Taylor is a must play this week in cash games, and a great value play in GPP’s.

2) Joel Bouagnon- Joel Bouagnon had his 100 yard game streak broken last week, but continued his six game touchdown streak. While he is extremely expensive this week, he is in a great matchup as Buffalo has not faced many quality running backs this year, and we expect Bouagnon to have the safest amount of volume this week.

3) Terry Swanson- $6,300 It’s hard to start a backup running back in fantasy sports, as there is a perceived risk that he is going to get less opportunities than a starter on another team. This is not the case for Terry Swanson. At $6,300, he is one of the top plays of the week, as in his six games that he has played this season he has averaged 120 yards per game with four touchdowns. The matchup is a difficult one as Central Michigan has only allowed 135 yards per game rushing, but Swanson should still see 15-18 carries which at $6,300 it doesn’t take much to make value.

4) Kareem Hunt- $8,100 Kareem Hunt is finally returning to health which is great to see him being fantasy relevant again after a tremendous 2014. The matchup is a difficult one as Central Michigan has held opponents to 135 yards per game, and he is still sharing carries with Terry Swanson, so while he has great GPP upside, he is a difficult start in cash games.

5) Jamauri Bogan- $7,700 The salary is expensive for Bogan this week, but the Freshman continues to amaze with his electric speed on a weekly basis. He has put up eight touchdowns over his last three games, including a 171 yard performance last week against Ball State. With an over/under of 75, everyone is in play in this Bowling Green Western Michigan game, but Bogan makes for a great GPP play this week. There is some risk with Bogan, as two of his last four games he has seen less than ten carries, so be careful in how you use him for cash games.

WR Rankings-

1) Corey Davis-$7,800 Corey Davis has returned to 2014 form over the last three games as he has seven receptions in each of the games and has gone over 100 yards in each of those contests. The price isn’t ideal, as there is some risk regarding whether he will find the end zone, but David makes for a great cash game play and a great pairing with Terrell this week.

2) Roger Lewis- The problem with this play isn’t the player, it’s the price. At $8,900 this severely limits your ability to fill a roster with players that you like. With that said in this high scoring game, Lewis is going to play a major role in it. Over his last five games he has had 100+ yards and at least a touchdown in every single game. He is as safe as they come, but we prefer to spend up elsewhere this week.

3) Sebastian Smith- $5,700 Ohio’s offense is not a great one as they are only averaging 18 points per game over their last three games. This hasn’t stopped Sebastian Smith who is one of the best wide receivers in the MAC conference. Smith has nine or more receptions in three of his last four games, and at $5,700 provides much needed salary relief on this slate.

4) Kenny Golladay- $6,900- Golladay becomes a must play if Tommylee Lewis is out, and it is looking like he will be unable to go in this game. In games where Lewis has been out or limited, Golladay has had his three biggest games of the year including last week where he had eight receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown.

TE Rankings- 

1) Matt Weiser-$3,700 Over his last six games, Matt Weiser is averaging 6.3 receptions per game, which for a fantasy tight end is tremendous. Find a way to fit him into your cash games this week, as he is the only tight end that you can feel safe about.

2) Ben McCord- $2,900 If you have to save $800, McCord is the only other tight end on this slate worth considering. Over his last four games he is averaging three receptions per game, and he has two 100 yard games earlier this season which put him into the category of being able to consider for GPP’s. We don’t love him in cash this week, as Weiser is a much safer option, but he should be considered if you’re looking to save money or as a GPP contrarian play.

Top Value Plays Under $6,000

1) Sebastian Smith- $5,700
2) Corey Jones- $5,700
3) Ryan Burbrink- $5,500
4) Jesse Kroll- $5,200
5) Anthony Rice- $5,300
6) Ron Willoughby- $5,800

Contrarian Plays: Week 9

As you already know, finding a contrarian option doesn't mean drilling to the bottom of a depth chart and rostering a low-cost player on the off chance that they luck into a touchdown or see more playing time thanks to an in-game injury. Contrarianism is more about under-owned players and less about being unique for the sake of uniqueness.

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. were under-owned last week. The matchup should have begged us to roll that stack in a lot of tournament rosters. Everything looks obvious in hindsight, of course. But we can chalk it up as lessons learned: starting elite players when the crowd is shy makes for a better contrarian play than a deep roster Hail Mary.

So remember that on Sunday morning when you're clicking submit for the final time. Consider that, maybe, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are this week's Manning and Beckham Jr. Or maybe this is the week for a Broncos power stack of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Remember that Vegas isn't interested in being right; they're interested in being equal, as in, equal amounts of money on both sides of a bet. So fading Vegas, as in, ignoring an over/under (like the Colts/Broncos 45.5 points) is a great way to be contrarian.

With that in mind, here is an excerpt from this week's contrarian plays:

Player	Salary	Game	Own %	Player	Salary	Game	Own %
Alshon Jeffery	$7900	CHI@SD	20.3	Brandon LaFell	$5200	WAS@NE	4.3
Odell Beckham Jr.	$9000	NYG@TB	19.7	Rishard Matthews	$6500	MIA@BUF	3.7
Malcom Floyd	$6100	CHI@SD	18.1	James Jones	$6000	GB@CAR	3.3
Julian Edelman	$8000	WAS@NE	16.8	Randall Cobb	$7400	GB@CAR	3.3
Julio Jones	$9200	ATL@SF	15.4	Ted Ginn Jr.	$5300	GB@CAR	2.9
Antonio Brown	$8700	OAK@PIT	13.2	Allen Hurns	$6800	JAC@NYJ	2.2
Michael Crabtree	$5800	OAK@PIT	13.2	Jordan Matthews	$6300	PHI@DAL	1.5
Amari Cooper	$7300	OAK@PIT	12.7	Robert Woods	$4900	MIA@BUF	1.5
Tavon Austin	$5700	STL@MIN	10.9	Dez Bryant	$7900	PHI@DAL	1.2
T.Y. Hilton	$7700	DEN@IND	9.7	Donte Moncrief	$6400	DEN@IND	1
Mike Evans	$7500	NYG@TB	9.6	Pierre Garcon	$6300	WAS@NE	1
Steve Johnson	$5400	CHI@SD	9.3	Brandon Marshall	$8100	JAC@NYJ	0.7
Brandin Cooks	$7100	TEN@NO	9	Dwayne Harris	$5300	NYG@TB	0.7
Demaryius Thomas	$8400	DEN@IND	8.6	Davante Adams	$5100	GB@CAR	0.7
Jarvis Landry	$7000	MIA@BUF	8.6	Dorial Green-Beckham	$4900	TEN@NO	0.6
Willie Snead	$6100	TEN@NO	8.6	Sammy Watkins	$6200	MIA@BUF	0.5
Eric Decker	$6300	JAC@NYJ	7.1	Terrance Williams	$5600	PHI@DAL	0.4
Martavis Bryant	$6900	OAK@PIT	6.9	Roddy White	$5300	ATL@SF	0.4
Stefon Diggs	$7400	STL@MIN	5.6	Marquess Wilson	$4800	CHI@SD	0.3
Emmanuel Sanders	$7600	DEN@IND	5.3	Rueben Randle	$5500	NYG@TB	0.2
Allen Robinson	$7200	JAC@NYJ	4.6	Riley Cooper	$5300	PHI@DAL	0.1

We expect Steve Johnson’s ownership to be higher come Sunday, but not so high that we shouldn’t take advantage of his $5,400 salary in what will be a Monday night shootout. Only the Ravens have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers. Johnson should see plenty of targets in the Eddie Royal role.

Speaking of Royal, he’s unlikely to play in this contest so that means more snaps for Marquess Wilson. We’ve seen what he can do when featured in the Bears offense. In Week 4 and Week 5, he caught 12 of 16 targets for 165 yards and a touchdown. This week he’ll benefit from single coverage as the Chargers focus on Alshon Jeffery. You won’t find a better option for less than $5,000.

Unless, of course, you think Dorial Green-Beckham will finally make use of his size and opportunity. The report from Nashville is that the Titans want him to block better. We just want him to receive better. He’ll have his opportunities against the Saints—who were just thrashed by the other Beckham last week—with Kendall Wright injured. The return of more accurate, more mobile Marcus Mariota should help, though we’ll miss out on the gun-slinging ways of Zach Mettenberger. In any case, if the Titans can get their offense going in the wake of firing their head coach, Green-Beckham might find the endzone once or twice. His $4,900 salary does a lot for the rest of our roster.

In his first game since Week 1, Dez Bryant caught only two passes for 12 yards. But he was anything but quiet. Matt Cassel targeted him six times, more than any other receiver including Jason Witten. Unfortunately, Richard Sherman was all over Bryant, who may not be full speed just yet. He’ll have an easier time against the Eagles, who look a lot better on the stat sheet (they lead the league in takeaways) than they do on the field. They’re allowing only 31.5 FanDuel points per game to receivers, but when they’ve faced a true No. 1 they’ve been burned. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, and even Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead have had their way against this secondary. Bryant’s $7,900 salary is the lowest it has been since 2011—long before Bradley C. won his $349. Fire Bryant up as a contrarian play and pray Cassel gets things turned around.

Now might be the time to take advantage of Brandon LaFell. His $5,200 price tag is a steal considering the Patriots are projected to score 33 points and are favored by two touchdowns. He has been targeted 15 times over the last two games and played on 87 percent of snaps last week. The Washington secondary has been getting pushed around lately, having allowed 400 yards and four touchdowns in their last two games. This a great week for LaFell to get back. His salary makes it possible to roster Touchdown Tom and still build a quality lineup.

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