Friday, December 18, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my wide receiver and tight end board from Week 15 early contests:

52% Jeremy Maclin (top matchup)
48% Julio Jones
33% Calvin Johnson
26% Demaryius Thomas (top matchup)
26% Travis Benjamin
24% Eric Decker (Saturday)
22% Brandon Marshall (Saturday)
17% Jarvis Landry
15% A.J. Green
11% Larry Fitzgerald (top matchup)
 9% Sammy Watkins (top matchup)

43% Jordan Reed
15% Ben Watson
15% Greg Olsen
 9% Gary Barnidge
 9% Zach Miller

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

Doug Baldwin is the glaring omission, by design. He was heavily owned at 37% on Thursday and I will have a Russell Wilson-Baldwin stack or two for GPP action on Sunday, but that's about it. Malcom Floyd is another receiver I will add to my exposure on Sunday, with Rivers, in a tournament lineup with Floyd having just 0.9% Thursday ownership. 

I added a lone Rob Gronkowski lineup or two as well at tight end and he is easy to fit under the cap with a low-cost T.J. Yates or Alex Smith at quarterback. I will boost Watson into the 20% range on Sunday and Reed in the 40% range is ideal as he is Washington's pass game centerpiece when healthy and they are back home this week.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday exposure. 

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