Saturday, December 12, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Quarterbacks

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my quarterback board from Week 14 early contests:

30% Russell Wilson
17% Cam Newton
17% Jameis Winston (top matchup)
14% Alex Smith
12% Tyrod Taylor (top matchup)
10% Ryan Fitzpatrick (top matchup)

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

Wilson is in his own top tier this week by Footballguys H-Value. Newton has the better projection than Winston, but the Tampa Bay matchup against the Saints is an ideal one, adding Winston into the second tier. Fitzpatrick and Smith are ideal GPP stacking foundations with defined passing depth charts. Against Tennessee, at home, Fitzpatrick with Brandon Marshall and/or Eric Decker is one of the my go-to stacks for Week 14.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

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