Saturday, December 12, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Running Backs

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my running back board from Week 14 early contests:

50% David Johnson (now out of play)
40% DeAngelo Williams
30% Thomas Rawls
20% Doug Martin (top matchup)
20% Shaun Draughn (top matchup)
15% LeSean McCoy
15% T.J. Yeldon

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

With David Johnson out of the picture for Sunday lineups, this portfolio will pivot to Williams and Rawls around 10% higher. Draughn is an unsexy name, but seeing consistent volume, plus passing work, and gets a quality matchup with Cleveland. Martin will shade up 5-10% as well with a top matchup and David Johnson out.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

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