Saturday, December 12, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Kickers & Defense

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my kicker and defense board from Week 14 early contests:

30% Cairo Santos
20% Graham Gano
20% Connor Barth
15% Steve Hauschka
15% Mike Nugent

30% Seahawks
20% Chiefs
20% Jets
20% Packers
10% Panthers

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

The kicker projections are muddy at top for Footballguys H-Value. Santos and the Chiefs are a top Vegas projection and $4,700 salary is the second-lowest of the above kicker pecking order. On defense, the Seahawks are the clear top choice against Baltimore - with an argument to be closer to 40% of the weekly portfolio. At $5,300 they are difficult to fit consistently with the high-priced preferred wide receivers. The Jets were the best combination of matchup, salary ($500 less than Seattle), and low ownership from Thursday.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

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