Friday, December 18, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Running Backs

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my running back board from Week 15 early contests:

61% David Johnson
30% Charcandrick West
24% Latavius Murray
24% Adrian Peterson
24% Denard Robinson (top matchup)
22% DeAngelo Williams
11% Devonta Freeman

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

 David Johnson fits my criteria to hit or surpass 50% exposure this week at $6,500 and a high floor and ceiling combination. Overall, running backs are reasonably priced with Johnson, Murray, West, and Robinson all projected starters at $6,500 or less. Monitor Spencer Ware and T.J. Yeldon's status until Sunday, but both are unlikely to play making Robinson and West strong plays for 20% or more exposure.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 


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