Friday, December 18, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Quarterbacks

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my quarterback board from Week 15 early contests:

22% Matthew Stafford
22% Alex Smith
17% Tyrod Taylor
15% Cam Newton
13% T.J. Yates
 9% Russell Wilson

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

I will have more exposure to Yates in Sunday contests as there is so much running back value the extra cap space created ($6,000 salary) is a challenge to use as strange as that sounds. Wilson is heavily-owned by the consensus (24% in Thursday contests), so I am fading him by comparison, but still want a few shares in my portfolio. Stafford and Smith have easy stacking pairs of Calvin Johnson and Jeremy Maclin. Tyrod Taylor, like Yates, had an ownership level below 3% on Thursday.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday exposure. 

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