Saturday, December 19, 2015

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Kickers and Defenses

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my kicker and defense board from Week 15 early contests:

41% Stephen Gostkowski
24% Kai Forbath
13% Steve Hauschka
 9% Jason Myers
 4% Chandler Catanzaro

41% Seahawks
24% Chiefs
13% Patriots
 9% Steelers
 9% Bengals
 4% Jets

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

The Patriots, Steelers, and Jets ended up lower than my outlined plan when constructing rosters, They will correct upward with Sunday's exposure. The top-3 defenses above are all touchdown or better favorites with the Steelers at -6 and Bengals facing the 49ers' 18-point team total in a projected low-scoring slugfest.

I will hedge up Jason Myers and Chandler Catanzaro on Sunday as I have both in the 10-15% range in my projected exposure. With the additional cap space on many lineups, Gostkowski was an easier fit than I expected.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday exposure. 

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