Friday, August 21, 2015

College Football First Takes (Thursday 9/3 Game Slate)

Marquise Williams QB - North Carolina
Earlier in the week we saw FanDuel release their first taste of CFB DFS action for 2015.  They put out 6 different GPP contests, ranging from $1 to $100 and also added 2 Qualifiers for the CFB Playboy Mansion ($200 and $25 buy-ins). The first few weeks in the CFB season are the ones that can be to your advantage if you are willing to put in the research and find both the value and strongest plays of the week. With FanDuel opening up the season with a 9 game slate for college football it is never too early to start on giving out advice and below I will give you my early take on what players to target.

GAMES                                         VEGAS ODDS
Western Kentucky vs Vanderbilt              -1.5/66.0
North Carolina vs South Carolina             -2.5/64.0
TCU vs Minnesota                                  -14.0/57.5
Ohio vs Idaho                                           +9.0/54.0
Oklahoma State vs Central Michigan    +21.5/54.0 
TX San Antonio vs Arizona                   -31.0/52.5
Duke vs Tulane                                         -9.5/47.5
FIU vs UCF                                             -17.0/46.5
Michigan vs Utah                                      -5.5/46.0

Some quick notes to get us started here while looking at the game slate and the odds associated with them. The first thing I like to look for are the high totals and for this Thursday we have the first two games with game totals over 64.0 total points and even better both of these have a point spread that are under 3 points so we have to feel good about those games putting up a lot of points with both offenses in a back to back type of game. These type of high scoring games usually tend to favor the passing game and this is where you should look for your QB and WR's.

Oklahoma State being favored by -21.5 points and Arizona by -31.0 points makes those games look very lopsided but in college football that is not always a bad thing. Scoring points helps your team in the polls and even in the 4th quarter when your team is up by 3 or 4 touchdowns it is still very likely that your starters will be on the field trying to make plays and find the endzone. I usually like to target teams Running Backs in games that have a higher point spread.

The games that come in under a 50.0 over/under total on Vegas are the games that you want to be careful with and pick and choose players here sparingly. If you are playing in GPPs and want to be contrarian picking players from these type of games would set you apart from the pack.

Now onto a few notable picks at each position for this Thursday game slate.

Strong Play: QB Marquise Williams $10,100  - North Carolina
Value Play:  QB Thomas Sirk $5,100 - Duke
     Cheaper Options: Travis Wilson $7,500, Cooper Rush $6,500

Strong Play: RB Devontae Booker $9,300 - Utah
Strong Play: RB Leon Allen $9,000 - Western Kentucky
Value Play:  RB Aaron Green $8,300 - TCU
Value Play:  RB Rodrick Williams Jr. $6,000 - Minnesota
     Cheaper Options: William Stanback $7,600, Elijhaa Penny $6,500

Strong Play: WR Josh Doctson $8,300 - TCU
Strong Play: WR Taywan Taylor $6,500 - Western Kentucky
Value Play:  WR Dezmon Epps $5,900 - Idaho
Value Play:  WR Kenneth Scott $5,900 - Utah
Value Play:  WR Kolby Listenbee $5,900 - TCU
     Cheaper Options: Ryan Switzer $5,500, Mack Hollins $5,200, Antwane Grant $5,200

Strong Play: TE Jonnu Smith $4,000 - FIU
Value Play:  TE Deon Watson $3,400 - Idaho
     Cheaper Options: Jerell Adams $2,700

For any CFB, NFL, or DFS questions please feel free to ask me over at Twitter @JamesBrimacombe

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