FanDuel Consistency Rankings: Wide Receivers

Wide receivers offer the most flexibility within our lineups but also bear the responsibility of carrying our team a lot of weeks. If you hit all three your chances of cashing are high, even if you miss somewhere else.

The pool of pass catchers is larger than all other positions, so hitting the right combination on any given weekend is difficult. Finding a balance between an expensive superstar and a low-priced wildcard is key. Looking back at how players ranked, with tournament value as our focus, helps us make that distinction.

You can check out consistency rankings for quarterbacks here, and running backs here. We’ve also created a lovely Google Sheet of every player for every week if you’re into that.

Here are the top 55 wide receivers ranked by average value. 

But, just like with running backs, we prefer a weighted value that takes more than just salaries into consideration. We’ve ranked them accordingly in the table that follows, where Ave EV is a player’s expected value and Ave AV is his actual value. To look behind the curtain and get a better understanding of how value expectations work, go here. 

Rank	Player	Games	Ave Value	Ave Salary	Ave EV		Ave AV
1	Antonio Brown	16	2.31	$8,800		2.46	-0.15
2	Odell Beckham Jr	12	2.72	$7,400		2.97	-0.25
3	Demaryius Thomas	16	1.98	$9,000		2.36	-0.38
4	Jordy Nelson	16	2.04	$8,600		2.50	-0.46
5	Dez Bryant	16	1.97	$8,700		2.48	-0.51
6	Julio Jones	15	1.93	$8,500		2.53	-0.60
7	Emmanuel Sanders	16	1.96	$8,100		2.68	-0.72
8	Randall Cobb	16	1.88	$8,300		2.60	-0.72
9	Calvin Johnson	13	1.64	$9,000		2.38	-0.74
10	T.Y. Hilton	15	2.05	$7,600		2.87	-0.82
11	A.J. Green	13	1.66	$8,600		2.51	-0.85
12	Jeremy Maclin	16	1.96	$7,800		2.83	-0.87
13	Alshon Jeffery	16	1.73	$8,000		2.71	-0.98
14	Mike Evans	16	2.06	$7,000		3.16	-1.10
15	Julian Edelman	14	1.89	$7,000		3.08	-1.19
16	Brandon Marshall	13	1.48	$7,900		2.74	-1.26
17	Golden Tate	16	1.96	$6,900		3.24	-1.28
18	Roddy White	14	1.76	$7,100		3.05	-1.29
19	DeSean Jackson	15	1.70	$7,200		2.99	-1.29
20	DeAndre Hopkins	16	1.77	$6,900		3.13	-1.36
21	Kelvin Benjamin	16	1.79	$6,900		3.15	-1.36
22	Steve Smith	16	1.76	$6,700		3.25	-1.49
23	Mike Wallace	16	1.67	$6,800		3.16	-1.49
24	Anquan Boldin	16	1.72	$6,500		3.30	-1.58
25	Sammy Watkins	16	1.54	$6,900		3.12	-1.58
26	Torrey Smith	14	1.99	$6,000		3.63	-1.64
27	Eric Decker	15	1.76	$6,300		3.44	-1.68
28	Keenan Allen	14	1.44	$6,900		3.13	-1.69
29	Andre Johnson	15	1.48	$6,700		3.21	-1.73
30	Jordan Matthews	16	1.76	$6,300		3.51	-1.75
31	Brandon LaFell	15	2.04	$5,900		3.79	-1.75
32	Kendall Wright	14	1.61	$6,300		3.40	-1.79
33	Vincent Jackson	16	1.34	$6,900		3.14	-1.80
34	Mohamed Sanu	16	1.53	$6,400		3.40	-1.87
35	Marques Colston	15	1.66	$6,000		3.59	-1.93
36	Michael Floyd	16	1.40	$6,400		3.34	-1.94
37	Eddie Royal	16	1.74	$5,900		3.71	-1.97
38	Larry Fitzgerald	14	1.31	$6,600		3.29	-1.98
39	Rueben Randle	16	1.58	$6,000		3.63	-2.05
40	Reggie Wayne	15	1.21	$6,600		3.29	-2.08
41	Michael Crabtree	16	1.24	$6,500		3.33	-2.09
42	Pierre Garcon	16	1.22	$6,600		3.31	-2.09
43	Kenny Stills	15	1.77	$5,500		4.00	-2.23
44	Greg Jennings	16	1.53	$5,700		3.77	-2.24
45	Andrew Hawkins	15	1.53	$5,600		3.86	-2.33
46	Malcom Floyd	16	1.76	$5,300		4.10	-2.34
47	James Jones	16	1.62	$5,400		3.99	-2.37
48	Jarvis Landry	16	1.54	$5,600		3.93	-2.39
49	Robert Woods	16	1.48	$5,600		3.87	-2.39
50	Doug Baldwin	16	1.54	$5,600		3.94	-2.40

It’s no surprise to see who claimed the top five spots. And it won’t be surprising to see those same names at the top this time next year, with the obvious exception of Jordy Nelson. We’re truly going to miss Nelson—and all the wonderful low-risk upside he provides—this season. 

No receiver had a higher average salary than Calvin Johnson, yet he still cracked the top 10—a testament to how safe a play he was despite his cost.

Mike Evans is the only rookie not named Odell to make the top 15 (he ranked third in average value). Most of his value came in Weeks 9 through 11. Outside of those three weeks, however, his floor was dangerous. He opens the season as the ninth most expensive receiver. 

Looking forward, here are the top-40:

Player		Salary	Game
Julio	Jones	9000	PHI@ATL
Odell	Beckham Jr.	8900	NYG@DAL
Demaryius	Thomas	8800	BAL@DEN
Dez	Bryant	8700	NYG@DAL
Jordy	Nelson	8600	GB@CHI
Calvin	Johnson	8500	DET@SD
Alshon	Jeffery	8400	GB@CHI
Randall	Cobb	8400	GB@CHI
Mike	Evans	8300	TEN@TB
A.J.	Green	8300	CIN@OAK
Emmanuel	Sanders	8200	BAL@DEN
Keenan	Allen	7900	DET@SD
T.Y.	Hilton	7800	IND@BUF
DeAndre	Hopkins	7800	KC@HOU
Roddy	White	7600	PHI@ATL
Jeremy	Maclin	7600	KC@HOU
Sammy	Watkins	7600	IND@BUF
Kelvin	Benjamin	7500	CAR@JAC
Brandon	Marshall	7400	CLE@NYJ
Brandin	Cooks	7400	NO@ARI
Vincent	Jackson	7200	TEN@TB
DeSean	Jackson	7100	MIA@WAS
Golden	Tate	7100	DET@SD
Amari	Cooper	7100	CIN@OAK
Andre	Johnson	6900	IND@BUF
Jarvis	Landry	6900	MIA@WAS
Jordan	Matthews	6800	PHI@ATL
Steve	Smith	6700	BAL@DEN
Anquan	Boldin	6600	MIN@SF
Mike	Wallace	6400	MIN@SF
Victor	Cruz	6300	NYG@DAL
Michael	Floyd	6100	NO@ARI
Allen	Robinson	6100	CAR@JAC
Doug	Baldwin	6100	SEA@STL
Torrey	Smith	6100	MIN@SF
John	Brown	6000	NO@ARI
Larry	Fitzgerald	6000	NO@ARI
Eric	Decker	6000	CLE@NYJ
Malcom	Floyd	5900	DET@SD
Kendall	Wright	5800	TEN@TB

If you set early lineups when salaries were released several weeks ago, be sure they don’t include Nelson. He’ll remain in the player pool through the first week at least. Same is true for Kelvin Benjamin.

Going back to Evans, his price tag of $8,300 isn’t prohibitive, and the matchup is plenty juicy, but I’m inclined to grab Vincent Jackson and save $1,100. Note, also that Evans’ ownership will probably be high. 

Julio Jones is the fifth most expensive player on the board. It’s unfortunate that the Falcons have a receiver of his size and speed yet he’s never had more than 10 touchdowns in any given season. Last year he caught 104 of his 163 targets, of which only six were scores. It’s possible that changes this year but maybe not for Week 1:

@justinbonnema careful with Julio Week 1. Atlanta is gonna have trouble blocking Eagles' front-seven & Maxwell will be on Jones.

— Andrew Porter (@And_Porter) August 10, 2015

On the other side of that game is sophomore Jordan Matthews. You’ll want to buy a piece of the Eagles’ offense most weeks and especially the first week where the over/under is 53.5 points. Pair him with Sam Bradford and you have high-ceiling stack for just 24% of the budget.

Both John Brown and Kendall Wright offer affordable services. Brown is the ultimate tournament play. He may not see a ton of targets but any one of them could be converted into an 80-yard touchdown.

 

Wright is sort of the opposite. He will see a ton of targets but touchdowns aren’t something we expect of small wide receivers in bad offenses. What makes him a good tournament play is A) low ownership, and B) he could end up seeing double-digit targets from his rookie quarterback. Their skill-sets blend well—all they need is a little chemistry.  

For a look at a few low-cost options, check out what Chad Parson wrote here. 

And if you haven’t already, be sure to download our Cracking FanDuel eBook. Opening kickoff is just few weeks away so time is running short. The Interactive Value Charts are also live. Familiarize yourself with that tool. We’ll refer to it a lot over the season.  

Extra Points:

DeAndre Hopkins' Week 13 was the most valuable of all receivers (5.68x)
Only nine receivers hit 5x value. Their average salary was $5,400.
Injuries notwithstanding, of players that had a top 10 ranking, none had more weeks of hitting less than 1x value than Calvin Johnson (five).  
Julio Jones came close with four. 
In Weeks 12 through 17, Odell Beckham Jr.'s Ave AV was .76 (six games).
The next closest was Antonio Brown with -.03 (five games).

Follow @justinbonnema