FanDuel Consistency Rankings: Running Backs

No running back hit higher value in 2014 than Jonas Gray did when he slammed through the Colts in Week 11 with 38 carries for 199 yards and four touchdowns. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: outliers win tournaments.

But as much as we like those low-cost, high-risk options, they’re nearly impossible to predict and consistency is king in fantasy football. The problem we run into when ranking players by average values is the skewed data thanks to small sample sizes like Gray. Unfortunately, we can’t remove small sample sizes; we can only normalize for them.

That’s where the importance of value expectations comes into play. With VE, we’re able to synchronize our averages and weigh out expectations with salaries, effectively giving projections context. All in the name of consistency. 

Complete FanDuel Value Reports are listed here. Even though we ranked 36 quarterbacks last week, the field of running backs is much greater and clearly needed an expansion. Said expansion is available here.

This is where things get interesting. There’s a major difference between where a player ranks in average value and how valuable he actually is. We saw this with quarterbacks in a prelude to the bootstrap paradox of daily fantasy sports, and we’ll pose that question again: is it possible that the more a player cost, the less valuable he becomes?

We know that 21.5 points from the running back position, like all skill positions, is optimum for tournaments. That’s how we derive expected value. Average value is the quotient of specific player’s average cost. The difference between those two values is our ground wire and perhaps the most important to our circuit. 

What follows is how players rank based on Actual Value, which is Average Value minus Expected Value:

Rank	Player	Games	Ave Salary	Ave Value	Expected Value	Actual Value
1	Le'Veon Bell	16	$8,900	2.32	2.42	-0.10
2	DeMarco Murray	16	$9,100	2.23	2.36	-0.13
3	Arian Foster	13	$8,700	2.25	2.47	-0.22
4	Matt Forte	16	$9,100	2.04	2.36	-0.32
5	Marshawn Lynch	16	$8,700	2.05	2.47	-0.42
6	Jamaal Charles	15	$8,900	1.75	2.42	-0.67
7	Eddie Lacy	16	$8,300	1.91	2.59	-0.68
8	Mark Ingram	12	$7,000	2.18	3.07	-0.89
9	Justin Forsett	16	$6,500	2.21	3.31	-1.10
10	Giovani Bernard	13	$7,800	1.63	2.76	-1.13
11	Andre Ellington	12	$7,400	1.77	2.91	-1.14
12	C.J. Anderson	13	$6,500	2.16	3.31	-1.15
13	Ahmad Bradshaw	10	$6,300	2.25	3.41	-1.16
14	LeSean McCoy	16	$8,300	1.41	2.59	-1.18
15	Lamar Miller	16	$6,800	1.9	3.16	-1.26
16	Joique Bell	15	$6,900	1.78	3.12	-1.34
17	Alfred Morris	16	$7,300	1.56	2.95	-1.39
18	Rashad Jennings	11	$6,900	1.66	3.12	-1.46
19	Jermey Hill	16	$6,100	2.04	3.52	-1.48
20	Fred Jackson	14	$6,400	1.76	3.36	-1.60
21	Ryan Mathews	6	$6,700	1.56	3.21	-1.65
22	Matt Asiata	15	$5,900	1.97	3.64	-1.67
23	Frank Gore	16	$6,700	1.47	3.21	-1.74
24	Ronnie Hillman	8	$6,000	1.83	3.58	-1.75
25	Tre Mason	12	$6,000	1.8	3.58	-1.78
26	Pierre Thomas	1	$6,300	1.45	3.41	-1.96
27	Steven Jackson	15	$6,500	1.34	3.31	-1.97
28	C.J. Spiller	8	$7,200	1	2.99	-1.99
29	Reggie Bush	11	$6,700	1.21	3.21	-2.00
30	Jonathan Stewart	13	$5,400	1.93	3.98	-2.05
31	Shane Vereen	16	$6,200	1.41	3.47	-2.06
32	Darren Sproles	15	$5,900	1.55	3.64	-2.09
33	Andre Williams	16	$6,100	1.4	3.52	-2.12
34	Branden Oliver	15	$5,700	1.64	3.77	-2.13
35	Chris Ivory	16	$5,700	1.6	3.77	-2.17
36	Bobby Rainey	12	$5,800	1.4	3.71	-2.31
37	Ben Tate	11	$6,500	0.98	3.31	-2.33
38	Knile Davis	16	$6,000	1.24	3.58	-2.34
39	Denard Robinson	13	$5,800	1.31	3.71	-2.40
40	Isaiah Crowell	16	$5,500	1.48	3.91	-2.43
41	Terrance West	14	$5,500	1.41	3.91	-2.50
42	Trent Richardson	15	$5,800	1.17	3.71	-2.54
43	Roy Helu	13	$5,200	1.59	4.13	-2.54
44	Darren McFadden	16	$5,600	1.14	3.84	-2.70
45	Jerick McKinnon	11	$5,300	1.35	4.06	-2.71
46	Bishop Sankey	16	$5,600	0.99	3.84	-2.85
47	Benny Cunningham	16	$5,100	1.27	4.22	-2.95
48	Alfred Blue	16	$5,300	1.07	4.06	-2.99
49	Theo Riddick	13	$5,100	1.16	4.22	-3.06
50	LeGarrette Blount	14	$5,200	0.99	4.13	-3.14

These rankings are a lot closer to the yearend rankings your redraft hearts desire. When you compare them straight up to the Value Report, you can immediately see the inefficiencies of ranking a player based solely on that criteria.

It’s no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray at the top. Their Actual Values of -.10 and -.13, respectively, are outstanding. It’s also interesting to see where Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington ranked. Ellington especially was a strong player to own when he was healthy—something to keep in mind for this upcoming season.

Meanwhile, players like Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Hill all fell out of the top 15. Hill standouts out because he ranked 10^th in our consistency rankings with an average value of 2.04x. But here we see his Actual Value was far lower, meaning he was a great cash game play but maybe not such a good tournament play (though it should be noted that after Week 8 his Actual Value was -.79, which would have ranked 8^th on this list). 

To put it all in perspective, 77 players had a positive Actual Value in 2014—about 5% of 1543 subjects in this study. Their average salary was $7500. 

Looking forward, here are the top 40 players for Week 1 with a salary of at least $6,000 (note that this list includes Arian Foster. Foster is out for several weeks but he remains in the player pool for Week 1):

First Name	Last Name	FPPG	Salary	Game	EV
Adrian	Peterson	10.3	$9,200	MIN@SF	2.34
Arian	Foster	19.6	$9,000	KC@HOU	2.39
Jamaal	Charles	15.4	$8,900	KC@HOU	2.42
Matt	Forte	18.5	$8,800	GB@CHI	2.44
Jeremy	Hill	12.3	$8,600	CIN@OAK	2.50
Marshawn	Lynch	17.7	$8,600	SEA@STL	2.50
DeMarco	Murray	20.2	$8,500	PHI@ATL	2.53
Eddie	Lacy	15.7	$8,500	GB@CHI	2.53
LeSean	McCoy	11.6	$8,400	IND@BUF	2.56
C.J.	Anderson	13	$8,400	BAL@DEN	2.56
Andre	Ellington	12.9	$7,900	NO@ARI	2.72
Justin	Forsett	14.1	$7,800	BAL@DEN	2.76
Mark	Ingram	13.6	$7,800	NO@ARI	2.76
Frank	Gore	9.6	$7,500	IND@BUF	2.87
Alfred	Morris	11.2	$7,400	MIA@WAS	2.91
Latavius	Murray	5.1	$7,400	CIN@OAK	2.91
Carlos	Hyde	4.9	$7,300	MIN@SF	2.95
Lamar	Miller	12.8	$7,300	MIA@WAS	2.95
Tre	Mason	10.6	$7,300	SEA@STL	2.95
Giovani	Bernard	12.8	$7,200	CIN@OAK	2.99
Jonathan	Stewart	10.3	$7,100	CAR@JAC	3.03
Melvin	Gordon	0	$7,100	DET@SD	3.03
T.J.	Yeldon	0	$7,000	CAR@JAC	3.07
Doug	Martin	6.8	$6,900	TEN@TB	3.12
Joseph	Randle	3.3	$6,900	NYG@DAL	3.12
Tevin	Coleman	0	$6,700	PHI@ATL	3.21
Rashad	Jennings	11.2	$6,600	NYG@DAL	3.26
Darren	McFadden	6.4	$6,600	NYG@DAL	3.26
Todd	Gurley	0	$6,500	SEA@STL	3.31
Shane	Vereen	8.7	$6,500	NYG@DAL	3.31
Joique	Bell	12.1	$6,500	DET@SD	3.31
Devonta	Freeman	4.5	$6,500	PHI@ATL	3.31
Christopher	Ivory	9	$6,400	CLE@NYJ	3.36
Bishop	Sankey	5.5	$6,300	TEN@TB	3.41
C.J.	Spiller	6.9	$6,300	NO@ARI	3.41
Charles	Sims	6.4	$6,200	TEN@TB	3.47
Fred	Jackson	11.1	$6,200	IND@BUF	3.47
Isaiah	Crowell	7.4	$6,100	CLE@NYJ	3.52
Knile	Davis	7.1	$6,000	KC@HOU	3.58
Danny	Woodhead	3.2	$6,000	DET@SD	3.58

Look who’s back on top: non other than All Day Adrian Peterson. I love his matchup against a suddenly horrible 49ers defense. But sinking 15% of your salary cap into such a risky situation may not be so wise. 

I also can’t imagine Hill finding his way into my lineup for $8,600. Yes, the Raiders run defense allowed more points to running backs than any other team, including 22 touchdowns. Seven of those touchdowns were receiving which makes me wonder if Bernard isn’t a sneaky option that will surely be ignored by the masses.

Sticking with the EV theme, we noted that players with an average salary $7,500 had a great return. That places us between Ellington and Jonathan Stewart. Of those 12 players, Lamar Miller and Stewart have great matchups on paper, albeit on the road. Justin Forsett could also be a great option given his use in the passing game. We expect the Broncos/Ravens to be high-scoring. 

For a bit more in-depth look at low-cost running backs for Week 1, check out what Chad Parsons wrote here. And of course, As the season approaches there’ll be no shortage of analysis at Footballguys.com.

In the meantime, it’s with great pleasure that we announce the Interactive Value Charts for FanDuel are live. This tool is practically worth a subscription on it’s own. As is the Cracking FanDuel eBook. 

Extra Points:

The average salary of all running backs who hit at least 4x last year was $6,100.

Those players averaged 29.6 points

DeMarco Murray had 10 games of at least 2x. 
The next closest was Matt Forte with eight.

Branden Oliver’s Week 5 value of 6.4x was the third highest of all players.

Tre Mason’s Week 13 value of 6x was the fifth highest.

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