No running back hit higher value in 2014 than Jonas Gray did
when he slammed through the Colts in Week 11 with 38 carries for 199 yards and
four touchdowns. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: outliers win
tournaments.
But as much as we like
those low-cost, high-risk options, they’re nearly impossible to predict and
consistency is king in fantasy football. The problem we run into when ranking
players by average values is the skewed data thanks to small sample sizes like
Gray. Unfortunately, we can’t remove small sample sizes; we can only normalize
for them.
That’s where the importance of value expectations comes into play. With VE, we’re able to synchronize
our averages and weigh out expectations with salaries, effectively giving
projections context. All in the name of consistency.
Complete FanDuel Value Reports are listed here. Even though we ranked 36 quarterbacks last week, the field of running backs is much greater and
clearly needed an expansion. Said expansion is available here.
This is where things get
interesting. There’s a major difference between where a player ranks in average
value and how valuable he actually is. We saw this with quarterbacks in a
prelude to the bootstrap paradox of daily fantasy sports, and we’ll pose that
question again: is it possible that the more a player cost, the less valuable
he becomes?
We know that 21.5 points
from the running back position, like all skill positions, is optimum for
tournaments. That’s how we derive expected value. Average value is the quotient
of specific player’s average cost. The difference between those two values is
our ground wire and perhaps the most important to our circuit.
What follows is how
players rank based on Actual Value, which is Average Value minus Expected Value:
Rank
|
Player
|
Games
|
Ave Salary
|
Ave Value
|
Expected Value
|
Actual Value
|
1
|
Le'Veon Bell
|
16
|
$8,900
|
2.32
|
2.42
|
-0.10
|
2
|
DeMarco Murray
|
16
|
$9,100
|
2.23
|
2.36
|
-0.13
|
3
|
Arian Foster
|
13
|
$8,700
|
2.25
|
2.47
|
-0.22
|
4
|
Matt Forte
|
16
|
$9,100
|
2.04
|
2.36
|
-0.32
|
5
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
16
|
$8,700
|
2.05
|
2.47
|
-0.42
|
6
|
Jamaal Charles
|
15
|
$8,900
|
1.75
|
2.42
|
-0.67
|
7
|
Eddie Lacy
|
16
|
$8,300
|
1.91
|
2.59
|
-0.68
|
8
|
Mark Ingram
|
12
|
$7,000
|
2.18
|
3.07
|
-0.89
|
9
|
Justin Forsett
|
16
|
$6,500
|
2.21
|
3.31
|
-1.10
|
10
|
Giovani Bernard
|
13
|
$7,800
|
1.63
|
2.76
|
-1.13
|
11
|
Andre Ellington
|
12
|
$7,400
|
1.77
|
2.91
|
-1.14
|
12
|
C.J. Anderson
|
13
|
$6,500
|
2.16
|
3.31
|
-1.15
|
13
|
Ahmad Bradshaw
|
10
|
$6,300
|
2.25
|
3.41
|
-1.16
|
14
|
LeSean McCoy
|
16
|
$8,300
|
1.41
|
2.59
|
-1.18
|
15
|
Lamar Miller
|
16
|
$6,800
|
1.9
|
3.16
|
-1.26
|
16
|
Joique Bell
|
15
|
$6,900
|
1.78
|
3.12
|
-1.34
|
17
|
Alfred Morris
|
16
|
$7,300
|
1.56
|
2.95
|
-1.39
|
18
|
Rashad Jennings
|
11
|
$6,900
|
1.66
|
3.12
|
-1.46
|
19
|
Jermey Hill
|
16
|
$6,100
|
2.04
|
3.52
|
-1.48
|
20
|
Fred Jackson
|
14
|
$6,400
|
1.76
|
3.36
|
-1.60
|
21
|
Ryan Mathews
|
6
|
$6,700
|
1.56
|
3.21
|
-1.65
|
22
|
Matt Asiata
|
15
|
$5,900
|
1.97
|
3.64
|
-1.67
|
23
|
Frank Gore
|
16
|
$6,700
|
1.47
|
3.21
|
-1.74
|
24
|
Ronnie Hillman
|
8
|
$6,000
|
1.83
|
3.58
|
-1.75
|
25
|
Tre Mason
|
12
|
$6,000
|
1.8
|
3.58
|
-1.78
|
26
|
Pierre Thomas
|
1
|
$6,300
|
1.45
|
3.41
|
-1.96
|
27
|
Steven Jackson
|
15
|
$6,500
|
1.34
|
3.31
|
-1.97
|
28
|
C.J. Spiller
|
8
|
$7,200
|
1
|
2.99
|
-1.99
|
29
|
Reggie Bush
|
11
|
$6,700
|
1.21
|
3.21
|
-2.00
|
30
|
Jonathan Stewart
|
13
|
$5,400
|
1.93
|
3.98
|
-2.05
|
31
|
Shane Vereen
|
16
|
$6,200
|
1.41
|
3.47
|
-2.06
|
32
|
Darren Sproles
|
15
|
$5,900
|
1.55
|
3.64
|
-2.09
|
33
|
Andre Williams
|
16
|
$6,100
|
1.4
|
3.52
|
-2.12
|
34
|
Branden Oliver
|
15
|
$5,700
|
1.64
|
3.77
|
-2.13
|
35
|
Chris Ivory
|
16
|
$5,700
|
1.6
|
3.77
|
-2.17
|
36
|
Bobby Rainey
|
12
|
$5,800
|
1.4
|
3.71
|
-2.31
|
37
|
Ben Tate
|
11
|
$6,500
|
0.98
|
3.31
|
-2.33
|
38
|
Knile Davis
|
16
|
$6,000
|
1.24
|
3.58
|
-2.34
|
39
|
Denard Robinson
|
13
|
$5,800
|
1.31
|
3.71
|
-2.40
|
40
|
Isaiah Crowell
|
16
|
$5,500
|
1.48
|
3.91
|
-2.43
|
41
|
Terrance West
|
14
|
$5,500
|
1.41
|
3.91
|
-2.50
|
42
|
Trent Richardson
|
15
|
$5,800
|
1.17
|
3.71
|
-2.54
|
43
|
Roy Helu
|
13
|
$5,200
|
1.59
|
4.13
|
-2.54
|
44
|
Darren McFadden
|
16
|
$5,600
|
1.14
|
3.84
|
-2.70
|
45
|
Jerick McKinnon
|
11
|
$5,300
|
1.35
|
4.06
|
-2.71
|
46
|
Bishop Sankey
|
16
|
$5,600
|
0.99
|
3.84
|
-2.85
|
47
|
Benny Cunningham
|
16
|
$5,100
|
1.27
|
4.22
|
-2.95
|
48
|
Alfred Blue
|
16
|
$5,300
|
1.07
|
4.06
|
-2.99
|
49
|
Theo Riddick
|
13
|
$5,100
|
1.16
|
4.22
|
-3.06
|
50
|
LeGarrette Blount
|
14
|
$5,200
|
0.99
|
4.13
|
-3.14
|
These rankings are a lot closer
to the yearend rankings your redraft hearts desire. When you compare them straight up to the Value Report, you can immediately see the inefficiencies of
ranking a player based solely on that criteria.
It’s no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray at the top. Their Actual Values of -.10 and -.13, respectively, are outstanding. It’s also interesting to see where Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington ranked. Ellington especially was a strong player to own when he was healthy—something to keep in mind for this upcoming season.
It’s no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray at the top. Their Actual Values of -.10 and -.13, respectively, are outstanding. It’s also interesting to see where Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington ranked. Ellington especially was a strong player to own when he was healthy—something to keep in mind for this upcoming season.
Meanwhile, players like
Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Hill all fell out of the top 15. Hill
standouts out because he ranked 10th in our consistency rankings with
an average value of 2.04x. But here we see his Actual Value was far lower,
meaning he was a great cash game play but maybe not such a good tournament play
(though it should be noted that after Week 8 his Actual Value was -.79, which
would have ranked 8th on this list).
To put it all in
perspective, 77 players had a positive Actual Value in 2014—about 5% of 1543 subjects
in this study. Their average salary was $7500.
Looking forward, here are
the top 40 players for Week 1 with a salary of at least $6,000 (note that this list includes Arian Foster. Foster is out for several weeks but he remains in the player pool for Week 1):
First Name
|
Last Name
|
FPPG
|
Salary
|
Game
|
EV
|
Adrian
|
Peterson
|
10.3
|
$9,200
|
MIN@SF
|
2.34
|
Arian
|
Foster
|
19.6
|
$9,000
|
KC@HOU
|
2.39
|
Jamaal
|
Charles
|
15.4
|
$8,900
|
KC@HOU
|
2.42
|
Matt
|
Forte
|
18.5
|
$8,800
|
GB@CHI
|
2.44
|
Jeremy
|
Hill
|
12.3
|
$8,600
|
CIN@OAK
|
2.50
|
Marshawn
|
Lynch
|
17.7
|
$8,600
|
SEA@STL
|
2.50
|
DeMarco
|
Murray
|
20.2
|
$8,500
|
PHI@ATL
|
2.53
|
Eddie
|
Lacy
|
15.7
|
$8,500
|
GB@CHI
|
2.53
|
LeSean
|
McCoy
|
11.6
|
$8,400
|
IND@BUF
|
2.56
|
C.J.
|
Anderson
|
13
|
$8,400
|
BAL@DEN
|
2.56
|
Andre
|
Ellington
|
12.9
|
$7,900
|
NO@ARI
|
2.72
|
Justin
|
Forsett
|
14.1
|
$7,800
|
BAL@DEN
|
2.76
|
Mark
|
Ingram
|
13.6
|
$7,800
|
NO@ARI
|
2.76
|
Frank
|
Gore
|
9.6
|
$7,500
|
IND@BUF
|
2.87
|
Alfred
|
Morris
|
11.2
|
$7,400
|
MIA@WAS
|
2.91
|
Latavius
|
Murray
|
5.1
|
$7,400
|
CIN@OAK
|
2.91
|
Carlos
|
Hyde
|
4.9
|
$7,300
|
MIN@SF
|
2.95
|
Lamar
|
Miller
|
12.8
|
$7,300
|
MIA@WAS
|
2.95
|
Tre
|
Mason
|
10.6
|
$7,300
|
SEA@STL
|
2.95
|
Giovani
|
Bernard
|
12.8
|
$7,200
|
CIN@OAK
|
2.99
|
Jonathan
|
Stewart
|
10.3
|
$7,100
|
CAR@JAC
|
3.03
|
Melvin
|
Gordon
|
0
|
$7,100
|
DET@SD
|
3.03
|
T.J.
|
Yeldon
|
0
|
$7,000
|
CAR@JAC
|
3.07
|
Doug
|
Martin
|
6.8
|
$6,900
|
TEN@TB
|
3.12
|
Joseph
|
Randle
|
3.3
|
$6,900
|
NYG@DAL
|
3.12
|
Tevin
|
Coleman
|
0
|
$6,700
|
PHI@ATL
|
3.21
|
Rashad
|
Jennings
|
11.2
|
$6,600
|
NYG@DAL
|
3.26
|
Darren
|
McFadden
|
6.4
|
$6,600
|
NYG@DAL
|
3.26
|
Todd
|
Gurley
|
0
|
$6,500
|
SEA@STL
|
3.31
|
Shane
|
Vereen
|
8.7
|
$6,500
|
NYG@DAL
|
3.31
|
Joique
|
Bell
|
12.1
|
$6,500
|
DET@SD
|
3.31
|
Devonta
|
Freeman
|
4.5
|
$6,500
|
PHI@ATL
|
3.31
|
Christopher
|
Ivory
|
9
|
$6,400
|
CLE@NYJ
|
3.36
|
Bishop
|
Sankey
|
5.5
|
$6,300
|
TEN@TB
|
3.41
|
C.J.
|
Spiller
|
6.9
|
$6,300
|
NO@ARI
|
3.41
|
Charles
|
Sims
|
6.4
|
$6,200
|
TEN@TB
|
3.47
|
Fred
|
Jackson
|
11.1
|
$6,200
|
IND@BUF
|
3.47
|
Isaiah
|
Crowell
|
7.4
|
$6,100
|
CLE@NYJ
|
3.52
|
Knile
|
Davis
|
7.1
|
$6,000
|
KC@HOU
|
3.58
|
Danny
|
Woodhead
|
3.2
|
$6,000
|
DET@SD
|
3.58
|
Look who’s back on top: non
other than All Day Adrian Peterson. I love his matchup against a suddenly
horrible 49ers defense. But sinking 15% of your salary cap into such a risky
situation may not be so wise.
I also can’t imagine Hill
finding his way into my lineup for $8,600. Yes, the Raiders run defense allowed
more points to running backs than any other team, including 22 touchdowns.
Seven of those touchdowns were receiving which makes me wonder if Bernard isn’t
a sneaky option that will surely be ignored by the masses.
Sticking with the EV
theme, we noted that players with an average salary $7,500 had a great return.
That places us between Ellington and Jonathan Stewart. Of those 12 players,
Lamar Miller and Stewart have great matchups on paper, albeit on the road. Justin
Forsett could also be a great option given his use in the passing game. We
expect the Broncos/Ravens to be high-scoring.
For a bit more in-depth
look at low-cost running backs for Week 1, check out what Chad Parsons wrote here. And of course, As the season approaches there’ll be no
shortage of analysis at Footballguys.com.
In the meantime, it’s
with great pleasure that we announce the Interactive Value Charts for FanDuel are live. This tool is practically worth a
subscription on it’s own. As is the Cracking FanDuel eBook.
Extra Points:
The average salary of all running backs who hit at least 4x last year
was $6,100.
Those players averaged 29.6 points
DeMarco Murray had 10 games of at least 2x.
The next closest was Matt Forte with eight.
The next closest was Matt Forte with eight.
Branden Oliver’s Week 5 value of 6.4x was the third highest of all
players.
Tre Mason’s Week 13 value of 6x was the fifth highest.
Great work Justin. Loving these.
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