Saturday, August 22, 2015

FanDuel Consistency Rankings: Running Backs


No running back hit higher value in 2014 than Jonas Gray did when he slammed through the Colts in Week 11 with 38 carries for 199 yards and four touchdowns. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: outliers win tournaments.

But as much as we like those low-cost, high-risk options, they’re nearly impossible to predict and consistency is king in fantasy football. The problem we run into when ranking players by average values is the skewed data thanks to small sample sizes like Gray. Unfortunately, we can’t remove small sample sizes; we can only normalize for them.

That’s where the importance of value expectations comes into play. With VE, we’re able to synchronize our averages and weigh out expectations with salaries, effectively giving projections context. All in the name of consistency. 

Complete FanDuel Value Reports are listed here. Even though we ranked 36 quarterbacks last week, the field of running backs is much greater and clearly needed an expansion. Said expansion is available here.

This is where things get interesting. There’s a major difference between where a player ranks in average value and how valuable he actually is. We saw this with quarterbacks in a prelude to the bootstrap paradox of daily fantasy sports, and we’ll pose that question again: is it possible that the more a player cost, the less valuable he becomes?

We know that 21.5 points from the running back position, like all skill positions, is optimum for tournaments. That’s how we derive expected value. Average value is the quotient of specific player’s average cost. The difference between those two values is our ground wire and perhaps the most important to our circuit. 

What follows is how players rank based on Actual Value, which is Average Value minus Expected Value:

Rank
Player
Games
Ave Salary
Ave Value
Expected Value
Actual Value
1
Le'Veon Bell
16
$8,900
2.32
2.42
-0.10
2
DeMarco Murray
16
$9,100
2.23
2.36
-0.13
3
Arian Foster
13
$8,700
2.25
2.47
-0.22
4
Matt Forte
16
$9,100
2.04
2.36
-0.32
5
Marshawn Lynch
16
$8,700
2.05
2.47
-0.42
6
Jamaal Charles
15
$8,900
1.75
2.42
-0.67
7
Eddie Lacy
16
$8,300
1.91
2.59
-0.68
8
Mark Ingram
12
$7,000
2.18
3.07
-0.89
9
Justin Forsett
16
$6,500
2.21
3.31
-1.10
10
Giovani Bernard
13
$7,800
1.63
2.76
-1.13
11
Andre Ellington
12
$7,400
1.77
2.91
-1.14
12
C.J. Anderson
13
$6,500
2.16
3.31
-1.15
13
Ahmad Bradshaw
10
$6,300
2.25
3.41
-1.16
14
LeSean McCoy
16
$8,300
1.41
2.59
-1.18
15
Lamar Miller
16
$6,800
1.9
3.16
-1.26
16
Joique Bell
15
$6,900
1.78
3.12
-1.34
17
Alfred Morris
16
$7,300
1.56
2.95
-1.39
18
Rashad Jennings
11
$6,900
1.66
3.12
-1.46
19
Jermey Hill
16
$6,100
2.04
3.52
-1.48
20
Fred Jackson
14
$6,400
1.76
3.36
-1.60
21
Ryan Mathews
6
$6,700
1.56
3.21
-1.65
22
Matt Asiata
15
$5,900
1.97
3.64
-1.67
23
Frank Gore
16
$6,700
1.47
3.21
-1.74
24
Ronnie Hillman
8
$6,000
1.83
3.58
-1.75
25
Tre Mason
12
$6,000
1.8
3.58
-1.78
26
Pierre Thomas
1
$6,300
1.45
3.41
-1.96
27
Steven Jackson
15
$6,500
1.34
3.31
-1.97
28
C.J. Spiller
8
$7,200
1
2.99
-1.99
29
Reggie Bush
11
$6,700
1.21
3.21
-2.00
30
Jonathan Stewart
13
$5,400
1.93
3.98
-2.05
31
Shane Vereen
16
$6,200
1.41
3.47
-2.06
32
Darren Sproles
15
$5,900
1.55
3.64
-2.09
33
Andre Williams
16
$6,100
1.4
3.52
-2.12
34
Branden Oliver
15
$5,700
1.64
3.77
-2.13
35
Chris Ivory
16
$5,700
1.6
3.77
-2.17
36
Bobby Rainey
12
$5,800
1.4
3.71
-2.31
37
Ben Tate
11
$6,500
0.98
3.31
-2.33
38
Knile Davis
16
$6,000
1.24
3.58
-2.34
39
Denard Robinson
13
$5,800
1.31
3.71
-2.40
40
Isaiah Crowell
16
$5,500
1.48
3.91
-2.43
41
Terrance West
14
$5,500
1.41
3.91
-2.50
42
Trent Richardson
15
$5,800
1.17
3.71
-2.54
43
Roy Helu
13
$5,200
1.59
4.13
-2.54
44
Darren McFadden
16
$5,600
1.14
3.84
-2.70
45
Jerick McKinnon
11
$5,300
1.35
4.06
-2.71
46
Bishop Sankey
16
$5,600
0.99
3.84
-2.85
47
Benny Cunningham
16
$5,100
1.27
4.22
-2.95
48
Alfred Blue
16
$5,300
1.07
4.06
-2.99
49
Theo Riddick
13
$5,100
1.16
4.22
-3.06
50
LeGarrette Blount
14
$5,200
0.99
4.13
-3.14

These rankings are a lot closer to the yearend rankings your redraft hearts desire. When you compare them straight up to the Value Report, you can immediately see the inefficiencies of ranking a player based solely on that criteria.

It’s no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray at the top. Their Actual Values of -.10 and -.13, respectively, are outstanding. It’s also interesting to see where Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington ranked. Ellington especially was a strong player to own when he was healthy—something to keep in mind for this upcoming season.

Meanwhile, players like Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Hill all fell out of the top 15. Hill standouts out because he ranked 10th in our consistency rankings with an average value of 2.04x. But here we see his Actual Value was far lower, meaning he was a great cash game play but maybe not such a good tournament play (though it should be noted that after Week 8 his Actual Value was -.79, which would have ranked 8th on this list). 

To put it all in perspective, 77 players had a positive Actual Value in 2014—about 5% of 1543 subjects in this study. Their average salary was $7500. 

Looking forward, here are the top 40 players for Week 1 with a salary of at least $6,000 (note that this list includes Arian Foster. Foster is out for several weeks but he remains in the player pool for Week 1):

First Name
Last Name
FPPG
Salary
Game
EV
Adrian
Peterson
10.3
$9,200
MIN@SF
2.34
Arian
Foster
19.6
$9,000
KC@HOU
2.39
Jamaal
Charles
15.4
$8,900
KC@HOU
2.42
Matt
Forte
18.5
$8,800
GB@CHI
2.44
Jeremy
Hill
12.3
$8,600
CIN@OAK
2.50
Marshawn
Lynch
17.7
$8,600
SEA@STL
2.50
DeMarco
Murray
20.2
$8,500
PHI@ATL
2.53
Eddie
Lacy
15.7
$8,500
GB@CHI
2.53
LeSean
McCoy
11.6
$8,400
IND@BUF
2.56
C.J.
Anderson
13
$8,400
BAL@DEN
2.56
Andre
Ellington
12.9
$7,900
NO@ARI
2.72
Justin
Forsett
14.1
$7,800
BAL@DEN
2.76
Mark
Ingram
13.6
$7,800
NO@ARI
2.76
Frank
Gore
9.6
$7,500
IND@BUF
2.87
Alfred
Morris
11.2
$7,400
MIA@WAS
2.91
Latavius
Murray
5.1
$7,400
CIN@OAK
2.91
Carlos
Hyde
4.9
$7,300
MIN@SF
2.95
Lamar
Miller
12.8
$7,300
MIA@WAS
2.95
Tre
Mason
10.6
$7,300
SEA@STL
2.95
Giovani
Bernard
12.8
$7,200
CIN@OAK
2.99
Jonathan
Stewart
10.3
$7,100
CAR@JAC
3.03
Melvin
Gordon
0
$7,100
DET@SD
3.03
T.J.
Yeldon
0
$7,000
CAR@JAC
3.07
Doug
Martin
6.8
$6,900
TEN@TB
3.12
Joseph
Randle
3.3
$6,900
NYG@DAL
3.12
Tevin
Coleman
0
$6,700
PHI@ATL
3.21
Rashad
Jennings
11.2
$6,600
NYG@DAL
3.26
Darren
McFadden
6.4
$6,600
NYG@DAL
3.26
Todd
Gurley
0
$6,500
SEA@STL
3.31
Shane
Vereen
8.7
$6,500
NYG@DAL
3.31
Joique
Bell
12.1
$6,500
DET@SD
3.31
Devonta
Freeman
4.5
$6,500
PHI@ATL
3.31
Christopher
Ivory
9
$6,400
CLE@NYJ
3.36
Bishop
Sankey
5.5
$6,300
TEN@TB
3.41
C.J.
Spiller
6.9
$6,300
NO@ARI
3.41
Charles
Sims
6.4
$6,200
TEN@TB
3.47
Fred
Jackson
11.1
$6,200
IND@BUF
3.47
Isaiah
Crowell
7.4
$6,100
CLE@NYJ
3.52
Knile
Davis
7.1
$6,000
KC@HOU
3.58
Danny
Woodhead
3.2
$6,000
DET@SD
3.58

Look who’s back on top: non other than All Day Adrian Peterson. I love his matchup against a suddenly horrible 49ers defense. But sinking 15% of your salary cap into such a risky situation may not be so wise. 

I also can’t imagine Hill finding his way into my lineup for $8,600. Yes, the Raiders run defense allowed more points to running backs than any other team, including 22 touchdowns. Seven of those touchdowns were receiving which makes me wonder if Bernard isn’t a sneaky option that will surely be ignored by the masses.

Sticking with the EV theme, we noted that players with an average salary $7,500 had a great return. That places us between Ellington and Jonathan Stewart. Of those 12 players, Lamar Miller and Stewart have great matchups on paper, albeit on the road. Justin Forsett could also be a great option given his use in the passing game. We expect the Broncos/Ravens to be high-scoring. 

For a bit more in-depth look at low-cost running backs for Week 1, check out what Chad Parsons wrote here. And of course, As the season approaches there’ll be no shortage of analysis at Footballguys.com.

In the meantime, it’s with great pleasure that we announce the Interactive Value Charts for FanDuel are live. This tool is practically worth a subscription on it’s own. As is the Cracking FanDuel eBook

Extra Points:
The average salary of all running backs who hit at least 4x last year was $6,100.
Those players averaged 29.6 points
DeMarco Murray had 10 games of at least 2x. 
The next closest was Matt Forte with eight.
Branden Oliver’s Week 5 value of 6.4x was the third highest of all players.
Tre Mason’s Week 13 value of 6x was the fifth highest.


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