Sunday, August 23, 2015

Week 1 Impact of Jordy Nelson's Injury

By now you must know the shocking news that Jordy Nelson tore his ACL against the Pittsburgh Steelers, despite the fact he got up immediately and jogged off the field.
This is devastating news that will test Aaron Rodgers' powers as the reigning MVP. Having him at quarterback mitigates the loss as it affects the offense as a whole, however. Hopefully the Packers won't lose a cylinder.

As with any preseason injury to an important player, this has a huge ripple effect for Week 1 contests at FanDuel. Nelson was one of the highest-priced receivers at $8,600, so you should be able to easily find a replacement. (Incidentally, don't forget to swap him out of your lineups now in case you can't make a change in a few weeks for some reason.)

We won't go into the sheer number of options to insert for Nelson. Randall Cobb is a pretty good swap at $8,400 if you don't already have him in the same lineup, but you have a plethora of good options at that price. What you can do, however, is take advantage of the sudden value that other Green Bay receivers present. Here are the prices for the replacements:
  • Randall Cobb: $8,400
  • Davante Adams: $5,500
  • Ty Montgomery: $5,000
  • Jeff Janis: $4,500
We don't yet know how the Packers will directly address losing Nelson, but Adams figures to be the biggest beneficiary from a fantasy standpoint. He won't likely get Nelson's volume, and he is certainly not as talented as the injured starter. But he could have a great opening week that far exceeds value at that price. The only downside in using Adams—assuming he is the No. 2 receiver and healthy at that point—is his ownership percentage might be sky high.

Janis is going to be a popular addition at that price—not to mention the love he gets from some in the fantasy community—but be wary of the former seventh-round pick. He was being talked down earlier in training camp, and Ty Montgomery—whom the Packers took in the third round of the draft—could be the fourth receiver on the depth chart by the end of the preseason. Of course, if he bucks his critics and establishes himself as the third receiver, he'll be a great GPP option.

It's also interesting to note that Packers tight ends are nicely priced, and they could see an uptick in targets as a result of Nelson's absence:
  • Andrew Quarless: $5,200
  • Richard Rodgers: $4,900
These are probably still GPP darts, at best, given Green Bay's typical tight end usage.

Keep an eye on the goings on in Packer land over the next couple of weeks. Vegas currently the Packers as 6.5-point favorites against the Chicago Bears in Week 1 with an over-under around 50.5. That line is probably going to move a bit with this injury news; adjust accordingly.

2 comments:

  1. If you're going with a GB TE, Rodgers is the play, not Quarless.

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    1. Yeah, probably so. That's a pretty nice price.

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