The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my tight end board for Week 13 early contests:
25% Delanie Walker
20% Greg Olsen
15% Travis Kelce
15% Jordan Reed
15% Scott Chandler
5% Kyle Rudolph
5% Julius Thomas
Without Rob Gronkowski or a glaring value play, the tight end position turns into a 5-player tier at the top. All are similarly-priced and two - Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce - have elite matchups. Rudolph and Thomas have top matchups, but low Footballguys projections, making them diversification plays at 5% each. I boosted Chandler when constructing lineups closer to 20% as he cheaper than the options above him at $5,300 and Danny Amendola's status could boost Chandler into the weekend contests on my board.
The tight end position is heavily-slanted towards who scores a touchdown as most see lower volume than their wide receiver peers. Therefore the positional ownership in my portfolio is typically more muted at the top - not going 'all in' on a single tight end as much as running back and wide receiver. Rarely will a tight end hit 40% ownership on my weekly board.
Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.
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ReplyDeleteReally solid breakdown of your Week 13 tight end portfolio. I like how you kept ownership balanced instead of going heavy on a single TE, especially in a week without Gronk or a clear value standout. Your point about touchdown dependence is key—tight ends can swing contests, but the volatility makes diversification smart.
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ReplyDeleteYour Week 13 tight end ownership matrix follows the quarterback edition rules: no player over 50% of lineups and ratios based on Footballguys H‑Value tiers. E-ZPass in North Carolina
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ReplyDeleteThis is a really well-structured approach to lineup building 👌 I like how you’re balancing exposure instead of going all-in on a single tight end, especially in a position that’s so TD-dependent. Spreading ownership across a tier like that makes a lot of sense given the volatility.
ReplyDeleteYour point about adjusting based on late projections is also key—DFS is all about staying flexible and reacting to new info. Chandler as a value pivot is interesting too, especially if usage increases due to injuries.
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Solid breakdown 👍
Interesting breakdown of Week 13 tight end strategy—especially the focus on ownership balance and tier-based projections. That kind of structured approach can really improve lineup construction.
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ReplyDeleteInteresting breakdown—your tiered approach makes a lot of sense, especially in a week without a clear standout like Gronkowski. Spreading exposure across multiple tight ends instead of going heavy on one player seems like a smart move, given how touchdown-dependent the position can be. I also like the note about Scott Chandler as a value pivot if team dynamics shift closer to game time.
ReplyDeleteKeeping flexibility until Sunday morning with updated projections is definitely a strong strategy, especially in DFS where small changes can make a big difference.
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