The pool of pass catchers is larger than all other
positions, so hitting the right combination on any given weekend is difficult.
Finding a balance between an expensive superstar and a low-priced wildcard is
key. Looking back at how players ranked, with tournament value as our focus,
helps us make that distinction.
You can check out consistency rankings for quarterbacks here,
and running backs here.
We’ve also created a lovely Google Sheet of every player for every week if you’re into that.
Here are the top 55 wide receivers ranked by average value.
But, just like with running backs, we prefer a weighted
value that takes more than just salaries into consideration. We’ve ranked them
accordingly in the table that follows, where Ave EV is a player’s expected
value and Ave AV is his actual value. To look behind the curtain and get a
better understanding of how value expectations work, go here.
Rank
|
Player
|
Games
|
Ave Value
|
Ave Salary
|
Ave EV
|
Ave AV
|
|
1
|
Antonio Brown
|
16
|
2.31
|
$8,800
|
2.46
|
-0.15
|
|
2
|
Odell Beckham Jr
|
12
|
2.72
|
$7,400
|
2.97
|
-0.25
|
|
3
|
Demaryius Thomas
|
16
|
1.98
|
$9,000
|
2.36
|
-0.38
|
|
4
|
Jordy Nelson
|
16
|
2.04
|
$8,600
|
2.50
|
-0.46
|
|
5
|
Dez Bryant
|
16
|
1.97
|
$8,700
|
2.48
|
-0.51
|
|
6
|
Julio Jones
|
15
|
1.93
|
$8,500
|
2.53
|
-0.60
|
|
7
|
Emmanuel Sanders
|
16
|
1.96
|
$8,100
|
2.68
|
-0.72
|
|
8
|
Randall Cobb
|
16
|
1.88
|
$8,300
|
2.60
|
-0.72
|
|
9
|
Calvin Johnson
|
13
|
1.64
|
$9,000
|
2.38
|
-0.74
|
|
10
|
T.Y. Hilton
|
15
|
2.05
|
$7,600
|
2.87
|
-0.82
|
|
11
|
A.J. Green
|
13
|
1.66
|
$8,600
|
2.51
|
-0.85
|
|
12
|
Jeremy Maclin
|
16
|
1.96
|
$7,800
|
2.83
|
-0.87
|
|
13
|
Alshon Jeffery
|
16
|
1.73
|
$8,000
|
2.71
|
-0.98
|
|
14
|
Mike Evans
|
16
|
2.06
|
$7,000
|
3.16
|
-1.10
|
|
15
|
Julian Edelman
|
14
|
1.89
|
$7,000
|
3.08
|
-1.19
|
|
16
|
Brandon Marshall
|
13
|
1.48
|
$7,900
|
2.74
|
-1.26
|
|
17
|
Golden Tate
|
16
|
1.96
|
$6,900
|
3.24
|
-1.28
|
|
18
|
Roddy White
|
14
|
1.76
|
$7,100
|
3.05
|
-1.29
|
|
19
|
DeSean Jackson
|
15
|
1.70
|
$7,200
|
2.99
|
-1.29
|
|
20
|
DeAndre Hopkins
|
16
|
1.77
|
$6,900
|
3.13
|
-1.36
|
|
21
|
Kelvin Benjamin
|
16
|
1.79
|
$6,900
|
3.15
|
-1.36
|
|
22
|
Steve Smith
|
16
|
1.76
|
$6,700
|
3.25
|
-1.49
|
|
23
|
Mike Wallace
|
16
|
1.67
|
$6,800
|
3.16
|
-1.49
|
|
24
|
Anquan Boldin
|
16
|
1.72
|
$6,500
|
3.30
|
-1.58
|
|
25
|
Sammy Watkins
|
16
|
1.54
|
$6,900
|
3.12
|
-1.58
|
|
26
|
Torrey Smith
|
14
|
1.99
|
$6,000
|
3.63
|
-1.64
|
|
27
|
Eric Decker
|
15
|
1.76
|
$6,300
|
3.44
|
-1.68
|
|
28
|
Keenan Allen
|
14
|
1.44
|
$6,900
|
3.13
|
-1.69
|
|
29
|
Andre Johnson
|
15
|
1.48
|
$6,700
|
3.21
|
-1.73
|
|
30
|
Jordan Matthews
|
16
|
1.76
|
$6,300
|
3.51
|
-1.75
|
|
31
|
Brandon LaFell
|
15
|
2.04
|
$5,900
|
3.79
|
-1.75
|
|
32
|
Kendall Wright
|
14
|
1.61
|
$6,300
|
3.40
|
-1.79
|
|
33
|
Vincent Jackson
|
16
|
1.34
|
$6,900
|
3.14
|
-1.80
|
|
34
|
Mohamed Sanu
|
16
|
1.53
|
$6,400
|
3.40
|
-1.87
|
|
35
|
Marques Colston
|
15
|
1.66
|
$6,000
|
3.59
|
-1.93
|
|
36
|
Michael Floyd
|
16
|
1.40
|
$6,400
|
3.34
|
-1.94
|
|
37
|
Eddie Royal
|
16
|
1.74
|
$5,900
|
3.71
|
-1.97
|
|
38
|
Larry Fitzgerald
|
14
|
1.31
|
$6,600
|
3.29
|
-1.98
|
|
39
|
Rueben Randle
|
16
|
1.58
|
$6,000
|
3.63
|
-2.05
|
|
40
|
Reggie Wayne
|
15
|
1.21
|
$6,600
|
3.29
|
-2.08
|
|
41
|
Michael Crabtree
|
16
|
1.24
|
$6,500
|
3.33
|
-2.09
|
|
42
|
Pierre Garcon
|
16
|
1.22
|
$6,600
|
3.31
|
-2.09
|
|
43
|
Kenny Stills
|
15
|
1.77
|
$5,500
|
4.00
|
-2.23
|
|
44
|
Greg Jennings
|
16
|
1.53
|
$5,700
|
3.77
|
-2.24
|
|
45
|
Andrew Hawkins
|
15
|
1.53
|
$5,600
|
3.86
|
-2.33
|
|
46
|
Malcom Floyd
|
16
|
1.76
|
$5,300
|
4.10
|
-2.34
|
|
47
|
James Jones
|
16
|
1.62
|
$5,400
|
3.99
|
-2.37
|
|
48
|
Jarvis Landry
|
16
|
1.54
|
$5,600
|
3.93
|
-2.39
|
|
49
|
Robert Woods
|
16
|
1.48
|
$5,600
|
3.87
|
-2.39
|
|
50
|
Doug Baldwin
|
16
|
1.54
|
$5,600
|
3.94
|
-2.40
|
|
It’s no surprise to see who claimed the top five spots. And
it won’t be surprising to see those same names at the top this time next year,
with the obvious exception of Jordy Nelson. We’re truly going to miss Nelson—and
all the wonderful low-risk upside he provides—this season.
No receiver had a higher average salary than Calvin Johnson,
yet he still cracked the top 10—a testament to how safe a play he was despite
his cost.
Mike Evans is the only rookie not named Odell to make the
top 15 (he ranked third in average value). Most of his value came in Weeks 9
through 11. Outside of those three weeks, however, his floor was dangerous. He
opens the season as the ninth most expensive receiver.
Looking forward, here are the top-40:
Player
|
Salary
|
Game
|
|
Julio
|
Jones
|
9000
|
PHI@ATL
|
Odell
|
Beckham Jr.
|
8900
|
NYG@DAL
|
Demaryius
|
Thomas
|
8800
|
BAL@DEN
|
Dez
|
Bryant
|
8700
|
NYG@DAL
|
Jordy
|
Nelson
|
8600
|
GB@CHI
|
Calvin
|
Johnson
|
8500
|
DET@SD
|
Alshon
|
Jeffery
|
8400
|
GB@CHI
|
Randall
|
Cobb
|
8400
|
GB@CHI
|
Mike
|
Evans
|
8300
|
TEN@TB
|
A.J.
|
Green
|
8300
|
CIN@OAK
|
Emmanuel
|
Sanders
|
8200
|
BAL@DEN
|
Keenan
|
Allen
|
7900
|
DET@SD
|
T.Y.
|
Hilton
|
7800
|
IND@BUF
|
DeAndre
|
Hopkins
|
7800
|
KC@HOU
|
Roddy
|
White
|
7600
|
PHI@ATL
|
Jeremy
|
Maclin
|
7600
|
KC@HOU
|
Sammy
|
Watkins
|
7600
|
IND@BUF
|
Kelvin
|
Benjamin
|
7500
|
CAR@JAC
|
Brandon
|
Marshall
|
7400
|
CLE@NYJ
|
Brandin
|
Cooks
|
7400
|
NO@ARI
|
Vincent
|
Jackson
|
7200
|
TEN@TB
|
DeSean
|
Jackson
|
7100
|
MIA@WAS
|
Golden
|
Tate
|
7100
|
DET@SD
|
Amari
|
Cooper
|
7100
|
CIN@OAK
|
Andre
|
Johnson
|
6900
|
IND@BUF
|
Jarvis
|
Landry
|
6900
|
MIA@WAS
|
Jordan
|
Matthews
|
6800
|
PHI@ATL
|
Steve
|
Smith
|
6700
|
BAL@DEN
|
Anquan
|
Boldin
|
6600
|
MIN@SF
|
Mike
|
Wallace
|
6400
|
MIN@SF
|
Victor
|
Cruz
|
6300
|
NYG@DAL
|
Michael
|
Floyd
|
6100
|
NO@ARI
|
Allen
|
Robinson
|
6100
|
CAR@JAC
|
Doug
|
Baldwin
|
6100
|
SEA@STL
|
Torrey
|
Smith
|
6100
|
MIN@SF
|
John
|
Brown
|
6000
|
NO@ARI
|
Larry
|
Fitzgerald
|
6000
|
NO@ARI
|
Eric
|
Decker
|
6000
|
CLE@NYJ
|
Malcom
|
Floyd
|
5900
|
DET@SD
|
Kendall
|
Wright
|
5800
|
TEN@TB
|
If you set early lineups when salaries were released several
weeks ago, be sure they don’t include Nelson. He’ll remain in the player pool
through the first week at least. Same is true for Kelvin Benjamin.
Going back to Evans, his price tag of $8,300 isn’t
prohibitive, and the matchup is plenty juicy, but I’m inclined to grab Vincent
Jackson and save $1,100. Note, also that Evans’ ownership will probably be high.
Julio Jones is the fifth most expensive player on the board.
It’s unfortunate that the Falcons have a receiver of his size and speed yet
he’s never had more than 10 touchdowns in any given season. Last year he caught
104 of his 163 targets, of which only six were scores. It’s possible that
changes this year but maybe not for Week 1:
@justinbonnema careful with Julio Week 1. Atlanta is gonna have trouble blocking Eagles' front-seven & Maxwell will be on Jones.
— Andrew Porter (@And_Porter) August 10, 2015
On the other side of that game is sophomore Jordan Matthews.
You’ll want to buy a piece of the Eagles’ offense most weeks and especially the
first week where the over/under is 53.5 points. Pair him with Sam Bradford and
you have high-ceiling stack for just 24% of the budget.
Both John Brown and Kendall Wright offer affordable
services. Brown is the ultimate tournament play. He may not see a ton of
targets but any one of them could be converted into an 80-yard touchdown.
Wright is sort of the opposite. He will see a ton of targets
but touchdowns aren’t something we expect of small wide receivers in bad
offenses. What makes him a good tournament play is A) low ownership, and B) he could
end up seeing double-digit targets from his rookie quarterback. Their skill-sets
blend well—all they need is a little chemistry.
For a look at a few low-cost options, check out what Chad
Parson wrote here.
And if you haven’t already, be sure to download our Cracking FanDuel eBook. Opening kickoff is just few weeks away so time is running
short. The Interactive Value Charts are also live. Familiarize yourself with that tool. We’ll
refer to it a lot over the season.
Extra Points:
DeAndre Hopkins' Week 13 was the most valuable of all receivers (5.68x)Extra Points:
Only nine receivers hit 5x value. Their average salary was $5,400.
Injuries notwithstanding, of players that had a top 10 ranking, none had more weeks of hitting less than 1x value than Calvin Johnson (five).
Julio Jones came close with four.
In Weeks 12 through 17, Odell Beckham Jr.'s Ave AV was .76 (six games).
The next closest was Antonio Brown with -.03 (five games).
Follow @justinbonnema
Thanks for the post. Very insightful.
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