FanDuel Week 16 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 16 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Tom Brady ($8,800) + Rob Gronkowski ($8,200) = $17,000

The Patroits' top duo is coming off of back-to-back games where they combined for less than 35 FanDuel points. Negative recency bias, relatively high prices, and a tough road matchup against the Jets will scare most people away. That's the perfect time to roster high-upside players in GPPs, hoping for a bounceback. There's plenty of value at other positions this week to create space for Brady and Gronkowski on your roster. Brady hasn't been this cheap since Week 5. And Gronkowski played well against the Jets with a 11/108/1 line back in Week 7. With Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman unlikely to play, Gronkowski will be highly-targeted again.

Twist: James White ($6,600) has 27 targets and two touchdowns in the last three games. He's a great combination of upside and value for a Patriots triple stack.

Shootout: Vegas' 45.5 point total for this game doesn't scream shootout. But so much of the Jets' offense flows through Brandon Marshall ($8,300) and Eric Decker ($7,600) that you'd be wise to add one of them to your New England stack. The Patriots tend to take away teams' greatest weapons. So much like Week 7, I expect the focus of New England's defense to be on Marshall. Decker is the better value.

Saturday Staff Cash Plays

Hello, welcome to the post-Christmas Day review of the Footballguys.com Staff Cash Plays for the FanDuel contests that commence on Sunday afternoon.

Heading into Week 16 every team in the playoff picture continues to have reasons to play ball - including the Carolina Panthers, who have yet to sew up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. So there isn't any worry about teams resting their starters here in Week 16 - the playoff picture regarding seeding isn't fully determined.

Before you pull the trigger on certain players fighting to play through injury (Karlos Williams (shoulder injury); Adrian Peterson (ankle injury)) I suggest that you check out Dr. Jene Bramel's and Craig Zumsteg's work exploring/explaining the prospects for players who enter Week 16 with an injury. These are invaluable aids for fantasy owners.

Turning now to the Staff Cash lineups for the Sunday games:

ALL in on David Johnson ($7,300): As my colleague Andrew Garda pointed out on Thursday Staff Cash plays, I was the lone holdout on Thursday lineups (the only Footballguy without Johnson in my cash lineup). However, I have a different array of players on my Sunday slate, and David Johnson is one of those guys, making it unanimous among the seven staffers who have put together cash lineups for this feature. 

ALMOST all in on DeAngelo Williams ($7,400): There are five staffers who paired DeAngelo Williams with David Johnson, while Justin Howe preferred Christine Michael ($5,500) and yours truly is rolling with Denard Robinson ($6,400). Though Robinson didn't thrill me in Week 15 (11.4 points, short of two times his then-salary of $6,300), Robinson draws the Saints' truly awful rush defense this weekend. Over the past four weeks, the Saints average 28.8 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs, second-most in the NFL. Detroit's lack-luster running back stable trampled this unit for 23/150/2 rushing last week.

 Footballguys love Antonio Brown ($9,300) - Five of seven staffers have Brown on their Sunday Cash Plays lineups  - in all five cases he is paired with Rueben Randle ($5,700) and in four of the five lineups Jeremy Maclin ($6,900) appears. The staff is convinced that the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. due to suspension will lead to a healthy bump in targets and receptions for Randle against Minnesota.

Kai is OK - the upcoming game in the Superdome against the Jaguars have the Footballguys coming down on Kai Forbath most often at placekicker (he's on five lineups). With wintry weather/blustery winds expected in most outdoor venues this weekend, the game in the Louisiana Superdome which figures to be a high-scoring affair looks very attractive for the Saints' kicker.

Enjoy the games this weekend everyone - and if you are in the finals of your season-long fantasy leagues this weekend, GOOD LUCK! Have a safe Holiday weekend!

Week 16 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 16 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.

Week 16 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 16 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. This week the Lee Brothers play a practical joke on Dan, who pays off his DubSmash bet with some fancy, finger-pointing dance moves.

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 16

Merry Christmas Eve! Our present to you is…well exactly the same thing we give you every Thursday—our insight into FanDuel’s Thursday Night Cash games.

You can check the full lineups here, while we break down a few interesting things we’ve noticed.

Staff Trends

David Johnson…again

Once again the staff is all in on Arizona rookie David Johnson. Well, all but Mark Wimer. Still, it’s impressive that we mostly are on board with him despite a rising price tag. The Packers still have issues stopping the run, so Johnson is a good bet to match value.

Lower Tier Quarterbacks

While we have Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton sightings, Blake Bortles, Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr also got nods. Interestingly, Carr, tight end Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead are the only players from Thursday night who are getting starts, including Amari Cooper.

Carr should be a good play against a weak San Diego defense, and Blake Bortles gets the start in the hopes that the New Orleans Saints defense continues to be solid for opposing fantasy quarterbacks. 

With Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson catching balls for Bortles, we think it will be. Alex Smith sees a weak Cleveland defense and is generally underrated by fantasy GMs this year. Finally, Teddy Bridgewater faces a bad Giants defense, but is my least favorite of the starts as his value can depend on what Norv Turner does with the gameplan. I don’t expect four passing touchdowns like last week and no more than perhaps 250 yards at most. The price is OK though, and he has upside.

What can (Antonio) Brown do for you?

Brown is in all the lineups but mine. For me it wasn’t so much about avoiding him as it was chasing value elsewhere. And I really like DeAndre Hopkins this week. It’s hard to do both players.

The Steelers offense is on fire, and if Brown’s $9300 price tag seems high, consider that he has been over 30 points in four of the last six games on FanDuel, as pointed out by Chad Parsons in the FanDuel Value article.

Diamonds in the Rough

Aside from the quarternack values, we have a few interesting other plays to look at. Danny Woodhead ($5900) is coming off a huge game and should be a big factor Thursday night, though prior to last week he hadn’t been doing much lately.

Christine Michael ($5500) had a great game last week against the Cleveland Browns, but faces a tougher match against the St. Louis Rams. He’s a long shot play but he might be owned by a very low percentage of people as well.

Mike Gillislee ($5300) could share Karlos Williams’ carries if Williams is still banged up Sunday. The problem is how uninspiring Gillislee has been since he hit the NFL. He has had two touchdowns in the last two weeks and broke a super-long run last week, but there’s risk if he can’t find the end zone.

A couple of staff members are chasing Rueben Randle ($5700) as Odell Beckham Jr is suspended for the game against Minnesota. Randle is underwhelming though he has had two straight games where he scored a touchdown. You’re dependent on that though as he has just five games over 54 yards and none over 70, plus just six touchdowns. He’ll have chances this weekend, but he may do his usual thing and drop them.

Early Thoughts on Week 16

I love going cheap at quarterback. The salary savings allows for another stud wide receiver or Rob Gronkowski most weeks. This week features Alex Smith at $6,800 with a saucy matchup against the Browns (see Jeremy Maclin note below as well). Sam Bradford at home, against Washington, for $6,300 and Johnny Manziel at $6,000 are also in play for cheap.

David Johnson is more expensive, but still a screaming value. Johnson is leading the running back position in points since taking over the lead gig in Arizona. He has RB7 in terms of salary and more than $1,000 less than RB1 (Devonta Freeman). Another week, another high exposure of David Johnson.

Jeremy Maclin has had a steady floor of targets and the Chiefs have another good matchup with Cleveland, in Kansas City, this week. Maclin is outside the top-20 receivers in salary and stacking with Alex Smith will be one of my rotations in tournaments for Week 16.

Will Tye is interesting for $5,100 with Odell Beckham Jr. remaining suspended after his appeal. However, I have consistently rolled with the likes of Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, and Delanie Walker in recent weeks and doubt I fewer than 70-80% of my lineups have one of the trio included for Week 16.


Follow @ChadParsonsNFL

FanDuel Week 15 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 15 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Aaron Rodgers ($9,000) + Randall Cobb ($7,200) = $16,200

It's been a disappointing season for the Packers' offense, but we were saying the same thing about the Seahawks offense before they blew up in Week 11. Playing at Oakland seems like the perfect bounce-back spot for Green Bay. The Raiders have a solid rush defense and pass rush, which should force some quick passes to Cobb out of the slot. Rodgers high price and negative recency bias should kill his ownership percentage.

Twist: Richard Rodgers ($5,500) will be more heavily owned than Cobb and his quarterback, but he still probably won't crack the top five at his position. He rounds out a nice triple stack.

Shootout: Amari Cooper ($6,900) and Michael Crabtree ($6,700) are solid correlation plays in case of a shootout. I prefer Cooper.

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Kickers and Defenses

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my kicker and defense board from Week 15 early contests:

41% Stephen Gostkowski
24% Kai Forbath
13% Steve Hauschka
 9% Jason Myers
 4% Chandler Catanzaro

41% Seahawks
24% Chiefs
13% Patriots
 9% Steelers
 9% Bengals
 4% Jets

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

The Patriots, Steelers, and Jets ended up lower than my outlined plan when constructing rosters, They will correct upward with Sunday's exposure. The top-3 defenses above are all touchdown or better favorites with the Steelers at -6 and Bengals facing the 49ers' 18-point team total in a projected low-scoring slugfest.

I will hedge up Jason Myers and Chandler Catanzaro on Sunday as I have both in the 10-15% range in my projected exposure. With the additional cap space on many lineups, Gostkowski was an easier fit than I expected.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday exposure. 

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my wide receiver and tight end board from Week 15 early contests:

52% Jeremy Maclin (top matchup)
48% Julio Jones
33% Calvin Johnson
26% Demaryius Thomas (top matchup)
26% Travis Benjamin
24% Eric Decker (Saturday)
22% Brandon Marshall (Saturday)
17% Jarvis Landry
15% A.J. Green
11% Larry Fitzgerald (top matchup)
 9% Sammy Watkins (top matchup)

43% Jordan Reed
15% Ben Watson
15% Greg Olsen
 9% Gary Barnidge
 9% Zach Miller

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

Doug Baldwin is the glaring omission, by design. He was heavily owned at 37% on Thursday and I will have a Russell Wilson-Baldwin stack or two for GPP action on Sunday, but that's about it. Malcom Floyd is another receiver I will add to my exposure on Sunday, with Rivers, in a tournament lineup with Floyd having just 0.9% Thursday ownership. 

I added a lone Rob Gronkowski lineup or two as well at tight end and he is easy to fit under the cap with a low-cost T.J. Yates or Alex Smith at quarterback. I will boost Watson into the 20% range on Sunday and Reed in the 40% range is ideal as he is Washington's pass game centerpiece when healthy and they are back home this week.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday exposure. 

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Quarterbacks

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my quarterback board from Week 15 early contests:

22% Matthew Stafford
22% Alex Smith
17% Tyrod Taylor
15% Cam Newton
13% T.J. Yates
 9% Russell Wilson

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

I will have more exposure to Yates in Sunday contests as there is so much running back value the extra cap space created ($6,000 salary) is a challenge to use as strange as that sounds. Wilson is heavily-owned by the consensus (24% in Thursday contests), so I am fading him by comparison, but still want a few shares in my portfolio. Stafford and Smith have easy stacking pairs of Calvin Johnson and Jeremy Maclin. Tyrod Taylor, like Yates, had an ownership level below 3% on Thursday.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday exposure. 

Week 15 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 15 FanDuel show on The Audible. This week David Dodds joins Cecil Lammy and Austin Lee to dig into the Vegas lines, cover the latest news, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make out-on-a-limb picks.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.

Early FanDuel Portfolio: Week 15 Running Backs

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and value metrics, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my running back board from Week 15 early contests:

61% David Johnson
30% Charcandrick West
24% Latavius Murray
24% Adrian Peterson
24% Denard Robinson (top matchup)
22% DeAngelo Williams
11% Devonta Freeman

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

 David Johnson fits my criteria to hit or surpass 50% exposure this week at $6,500 and a high floor and ceiling combination. Overall, running backs are reasonably priced with Johnson, Murray, West, and Robinson all projected starters at $6,500 or less. Monitor Spencer Ware and T.J. Yeldon's status until Sunday, but both are unlikely to play making Robinson and West strong plays for 20% or more exposure.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

Friday Staff Cash Plays

It's Fantasy Playoffs, and in the real NFL the stretch run into the playoffs is in full gear. This time of year is where the tough get going and the going gets tough. As Andrew Garda pointed out yesterday, there were a lot of high-profile injuries last week that impacted on many players' daily fantasy lineups on FanDuel. Hopefully this week won't be as brutal.

For those who are considering guys who are currently banged-up (Matt Hasselbeck; Allen Hurns; etc.) as DFS options, I would advise a close reading of Craig Zumsteg's and Dr. Jene Bramel's injury coverage at Footballguys.com. They know stuff!

The staff at Footballguys.com continues to love the absurdly low price for David Johnson ($6,500) especially against the "Holiday Spirit of Giving" Eagles' defense - Johnson makes seven-out-of-eight lineups submitted by posting time for this blog. However, there is a wide diversity of selections at the other running back position, with eight other players selected who aren't named David Johnson. 

The OTHER Johnson - Calvin Johnson ($8,000) - shows up on five-of-eight staff lineups, so it's a Johnson-and-Johnson weekend among the staff at Footballguys.com. The woeful New Orleans defense accounts for the sudden popularity of the #1 Detroit receiver, although nobody on staff rostered Johnson's counterpart Golden Tate ($6,900) despite Tate's two receiving TDs last week.

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,200) is also popular this week with 50% of the staff including him on their cash rosters for Sunday games. The Eagles' easily-exploited defense helps to feed the frenzy regarding Fitzgerald this weekend.

On Defense/ST, it is all about Seattle this week with five of eight owners throwing in with the Seahawks as they host Johnny Manziel and the Browns.

Kai Forbath, N'Arlins' place-kicker, is highly sought after at his bargain $4,500 price with an appearance on four-of-eight lineups.  With winter weather starting to rear it's head, the Footballguys are going with a safe option who kicks inside a dome this weekend.

Good Luck this weekend everyone, and have a Safe and Happy Holidays over the next two weeks! - MPW

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 15

Once again we had a week where the loss of players—Andy Dalton, Greg Olsen, LeGarrette Blount, Thomas Rawls and Jonathan Stewart in particular—sank some lineups. Week 15 is here, so there is no time for the wicked to rest—the staff is back at work and has entered some lineups for your Thursday night perusal.

You can see all the staff picks here but I’ve cherry picked some of the selections I thought were interesting to discuss.

Staff Trends

Three Weeks with David Johnson

Johnson is in the majority of Thursday lineups again this week, even with the price up to $6500. The matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles is a good one with the Eagles giving fantasy running backs an average of 29.3 points per week during the last three games. As Chad Parsons points out in this week’s Value Article: “Johnson's price looks like a misprint for Week 15, a clear starting running back - with plenty of pass-catching upside - on a quality offense for cheap RB2 prices. 15 touches or more is his floor with multiple touchdown potential. Plugging Johnson into lineups this week is the easiest decision out there.” Until the price goes up, expect the staff to keep riding him.

Maximum Maclin

All six staff members have Jeremy Maclin in their lineups, and at $6700 against the woeful Baltimore Ravens pass defense, it’s no surprise. Alex Smith may not be Drew Brees when it comes to passing yards, but he does enough and Maclin should easily beat his somewhat disappointing numbers from last week. 80-100 yards and a touchdown on half a dozen or so catches would not be out of the question—solid production for a bargain price.

Megatron!

We know the Saints (normally) give up a lot of points and yards, while also scoring them. It’s a self-fulfilling circle of life—score a lot, get scored on a lot. Which means that the Lions are in a good place to score a ton of points this week and if they are scoring, Calvin Johnson is catching. The $8000 is a little steep, coming off two below-average games but that might also mean people will pass him by. It could be a good way to get points others will not be looking at. Deep threats get over on this defense—Calvin Johnson should add to that this week.

Diamonds in the Rough

Brandon Bolden ($5500) should get most of the work between the tackles against the Titans and while it’s actually not an easy matchup on the ground, he did well in limited snaps last week against Houston. 

At $7800, Matt Stafford might not seem a value until you remember how bad the Saints defense is. I love guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady but you save yourself a thousand or so going with Stafford or Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7800). Stafford has the prime matchup, but Fitz has been on a tear and is a worthy player with two weapons (Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker) who could be over 1,000 yards by the end of the year. Both Stafford and Fitzpatrick are quality starters who could be top fantasy quarterbacks this week.

Week 15 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 15 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. This week Austin pays off his DubSmash bet with a little dancing on the ceiling.

Exposed: Week 14

Check out this week's Exposed, where Aaron Rudnicki and I take a look at some of the best and worst matchups for receivers and tight ends. Here is a sampling of the goods:

GOOD MATCHUPS 

A.J. Green, WR, CIN vs. PIT ($8,500)Marvin Jones, WR, CIN vs. PIT ($6,200) 

Miglio: The Pittsburgh Steelers cannot stop the pass, at least not against quality opponents. The last time A.J. Green faced this defense he posted 11 receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown. He makes for an excellent cash game option, whileMarvin Jones can be a sneaky good GPP play. 

Rudnicki: The Steelers improved their pass defense by benching struggling corner Antwon Blake, but it wasn’t just one player causing all their problems so they are certainly still vulnerable. Despite a strong game against the Colts last week, they were also torched for 5 pass TDs to Seahawks WRs a week prior. With a Vegas total of 50 points, this game should be high scoring so it’s probably not a bad idea to target several WRs in this matchup and Green and Jones are both strong threats to find the endzone. 

BAD MATCHUPS  

Charles Clay, TE, BUF @ PHI ($5,100) 

Miglio: The Eagles gave up a touchdown to Scott Chandler last week, but those have come few and far between for opposing tight ends. Charles Clay isn’t exactly the most consistent tight end in the league, either. 

Rudnicki: The Eagles have proven to be a tough defense against opposing tight ends this year, despite significant struggles elsewhere. Clay has shown flashes of his ability with some big games, but he has also had an inconsistent role in the Bills offense. The Eagles pass rush seemed to heat up last week, and Clay could be kept in to block quite a bit given some key injuries to the Bills offensive line.

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Kickers & Defense

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my kicker and defense board from Week 14 early contests:

30% Cairo Santos
20% Graham Gano
20% Connor Barth
15% Steve Hauschka
15% Mike Nugent

30% Seahawks
20% Chiefs
20% Jets
20% Packers
10% Panthers

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

The kicker projections are muddy at top for Footballguys H-Value. Santos and the Chiefs are a top Vegas projection and $4,700 salary is the second-lowest of the above kicker pecking order. On defense, the Seahawks are the clear top choice against Baltimore - with an argument to be closer to 40% of the weekly portfolio. At $5,300 they are difficult to fit consistently with the high-priced preferred wide receivers. The Jets were the best combination of matchup, salary ($500 less than Seattle), and low ownership from Thursday.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my wide receiver and tight end board from Week 14 early contests:

35% Odell Beckham Jr. (top matchup)
30% Alshon Jeffery (top matchup)
25% Brandon Marshall
25% Antonio Brown
25% DeAndre Hopkins
20% Jeremy Maclin
20% Eric Decker
20% Calvin Johnson
20% Larry Fitzgerald (out of play)
20% Anquan Boldin
15% Danny Amendola
15% Doug Baldwin (top matchup)
15% Mike Evans (top matchup)
15% Sammy Watkins (top matchup)

30% Delanie Walker
25% Greg Olsen
15% Travis Kelce (top matchup)
15% Jordan Reed
15% Austin Seferian-Jenkins (top matchup)

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

Baldwin, Evans, and Watkins were heavily-owned in Thursday contests - with good matchups to boot - but are low projections by Footballguys. Amendola is a monitor player after limited practice reports this week. 

Walker is in a tier of his own. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has a case to be in the 20-25% range saving $500+ in salary space and having strong ownership in Thursday contests. He has an ideal matchup with New Orleans.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Running Backs

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my running back board from Week 14 early contests:

50% David Johnson (now out of play)
40% DeAngelo Williams
30% Thomas Rawls
20% Doug Martin (top matchup)
20% Shaun Draughn (top matchup)
15% LeSean McCoy
15% T.J. Yeldon

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

With David Johnson out of the picture for Sunday lineups, this portfolio will pivot to Williams and Rawls around 10% higher. Draughn is an unsexy name, but seeing consistent volume, plus passing work, and gets a quality matchup with Cleveland. Martin will shade up 5-10% as well with a top matchup and David Johnson out.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 14: Quarterbacks

Thursday is my main day for creating the weekly FanDuel 'board' of player ownership market share. In addition to checking out the great Interactive Value Charts at Footballguys for top values based on salary, projections, and H-Value, I mine the matchups for the best plays. Putting both groups together creates market share targets for Thursday locking lineups. Here is my quarterback board from Week 14 early contests:

30% Russell Wilson
17% Cam Newton
17% Jameis Winston (top matchup)
14% Alex Smith
12% Tyrod Taylor (top matchup)
10% Ryan Fitzpatrick (top matchup)

Diversity is very important as it keeps a DFS player grounded in thinking a singular player is a guaranteed stud performer and provides many combinations of players to hit a top score. With mix-and-match lineup construction, the above lineup rates are a guide and will vary by a few percentage points when actually constructing lineups.

Wilson is in his own top tier this week by Footballguys H-Value. Newton has the better projection than Winston, but the Tampa Bay matchup against the Saints is an ideal one, adding Winston into the second tier. Fitzpatrick and Smith are ideal GPP stacking foundations with defined passing depth charts. Against Tennessee, at home, Fitzpatrick with Brandon Marshall and/or Eric Decker is one of the my go-to stacks for Week 14.

The past few weeks I have been consciously stacking my quarterbacks in play for the week with at least one of their top targets, if not two, more and more in lineups with success.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups. 

FanDuel Week 14 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 14 FanDuel stacks. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Andy Dalton ($8,200) + A.J. Green ($8,500) = $16,700

These Bengals aren't completely off of people's radar, but Dalton was outside the top five and Green was outside the top 10 in terms of ownership at their positions in Thursday contests. More DFS players are stacking Steelers, Jaguars, Jets, Giants, Bills, and Bucs this week, which creates an opportunity to buy into this mid-owned Bengals stack and separate yourself from the pack.

Shootout: Taking both sides of this likely shootout is a strong correlation play. Add Antonio Brown ($9,300) or Martavis Bryant ($7,400) to complete your Bengals super-stack.

Staff Friday Cash Plays

Week 14 is here, and the playoff races are heating up. The weeks 13-16 are perhaps my favorite (except for opening day) time period of the year to be a NFL and Daily Fantasy Fan. As always, the Footballguys.com Staff has pieced together an interesting panoply of grid iron warriors to enter into FanDuel's cash games this week - come along and see who the guys are recommending (and playing with their own money!).

Jameis Winston ($7,800) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,800) are the most-favored quarterbacks this week, with a whopping five of nine owners inserting Winston in their cash lineups for Sunday games. Fitzpatrick is featured on two lineups  - interestingly, Fitzpatrick is stacked with either Brandon Marshall ($8,200) or Eric Decker ($7,300) on the two lineups that feature him, but Winston is not stacked with any receiver or tight end this week.

As Andrew Garda noted in Thursday Staff Cash Plays  the top-priced receivers are getting lots of play this weekend, with Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,300) leading the way with six appearances out of nine staff lineups for Sunday cash games. Antonio Brown ($9,300) is on four rosters, and the two are combined on two of nine lineups. To make the Brown/Beckham stack work under the $60K salary cap, I am playing an incredibly cheap Ryan Mathews ($4,700) at one running back, while Phil Alexander is plugging in Tim Hightower ($4,500) now that Mark Ingram is on IR.

Speaking of dirt-cheap running backs - several owners are playing "value" running backs this week - besides the above-mentioned Mathews and Hightower, Shaun Draughn ($6,500) is on three lineups; and James Brimacombe is playing Darren Sproles ($5,100) this week.

Kansas City Lovin' - while we're not going to 12th Street and Vine, five of the nine Footballguys are playing the Kansas City defense at home against the struggling San Diego Chargers - in deafening Arrowhead Stadium it is hard to run audibles, and the K.C. D usually plays at it's best on the home field. They are hard to ignore at $4,800 after shutting down San Diego 33-3 in Week 11 @ San Diego!

Good Luck this weekend, One and All! 

Week 14 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 14 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode!

Week 14 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 14 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week. This week we offer up a DOUBLE DubSmash bet as both Dan and John pay up.

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 14

Week 15 is here and the Footballguys staff has put together some Thursday cash play lineups for FanDuel and we’ve picked out a few things that jumped out at us which we thought might be helpful.

You can see all the staff picks here to get the full view of who did what.

Staff Trends

“The Other Guys” at Quarterback

So far Thursday lineups feature all lower tier guys. Jameis Winston ($7800) leads the way with a couple of Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7800) starts and one Tyrod Taylor ($7500). All three are good value plays, where you get plenty of bang for your buck. Yes, you can spend more, but when you can spend less at quarterback and still get solid production, you should as it gives you the flexibility to go big elsewhere.

David Johnson again

He got some run last week and while his price went up, three staff members added him to their lineup. He’s almost the only player from Thursday night to get any nods, which is interesting given how consistent Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have been, as well as a matchup against a defense missing up to four starters. Johnson should get plenty of carries and have plenty of success against this depleted defensive front.

A Week for Top WRs

Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins all got starts in this grouping (sometimes more than one of them in the same lineup), as the staff took the money they saved at quarterback and plugged it in at receiver. While the price tags are higher, so is the production and all those players consistently put up big points. They are also probably all significantly owned and that’s fine—in cash games you don’t have to hit a home run—you just need to keep up with the crowd.

Sammy Watkins and Brandon Marshall are pretty strong plays as well.

Diamonds in the Rough

All the quarterbacks mentioned are values, as is Patriots tight end Scott Chandler ($5800) if Rob Gronkowski doesn’t play. As it stands, Gronkowski is practicing with a brace. As bad as the offense looked against the Eagles last week, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots are not pushing for him to play. The problem here is at Fanduel you cannot do late switches. So if Gronkowski plays, you’re hosed and have to pray Chandler gets a lot of run anyway.

Delanie Walker ($6100) should, as most tight ends do, find a lot of room to work against the Jets. At that price, it’s a pretty good bargain for what should likely be solid production.

FanDuel Week 13 Starting Stacks

I just posted my Week 13 FanDuel stacks. The entire article is FREE this week, just in time for your last shot at getting to the WFFC. I cover highly-owned stacks, less common stacks, matchups with shootout potential, and defensive stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Marcus Mariota ($7,100) + Delanie Walker ($6,000) = $13,100

Mariota has been a pretty inconsistent fantasy scorer this season, but his upside is appealing for GPPs. According to my Normalized Strength of Schedule, Jacksonville has allowed quarterbacks to overperform by 22% over the last five weeks. And while Walker will likely be a top-three-owned tight end this week, Mariota was largely overlooked in Thursday contests.

Shootout: With Allen Hurns likely to miss this game, it will be hard not to add target-monster Allen Robinson ($8,000) to Titans stacks as a positive correlation play.

Week 13 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 13 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode!

Staff Friday Cash Plays

Week 13 action is just over the horizon - welcome to Footballguys.com's Friday Staff Cash Plays for FanDuel games!

Before setting your cash lineups at FanDuel this weekend, I recommend to everyone reading this blog that you review the injury information/analysis presented by Dr. Jene Bramel (HERE) and Craig Zumsteg (HERE). You'll be glad you did as their advice can help you avoid lineup pitfalls!

Reviewing the nine staff lineups submitted by the time I posted this item - it appears that:


The Footballguys are adherents of "Newtonian" Physics this week: Cam Newton ($9,000) is a heavily favored choice here in Week 13 - he appears on five of the nine staff lineups for Sunday cash games. The Saints' pass D has allowed an average of 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks (third-most during that time span), with an average of 19.3 points per game surrendered to opposing wide receivers (11th-least) and 21.6 points per game given out to opposing tight ends (the worst in the NFL). Greg Olsen ($6,600) is a prime pick this week (he's on four of nine lineups, and stacked with Newton on three of the five that have Newton starting) given the tendencies of the Saints' defense outlined above.

All-Aboard for Alshon: There is a consensus that Alshon Jeffery ($7,700) is a good play this week - he's on six of the nine lineups submitted by the time I posted this item. Over the past four weeks, the 49ers' pass D has allowed an average of 22.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (13th-most in the NFL during that time span), with an average of 22.4 points per game surrendered to opposing wide receivers (12th-most). With Eddie Royal still ailing (knee injury) and Martellus Bennett coming off a ribs injury, Jeffery looks poised to be the focus of the Bears' attack here in Week 13.

Great Scott! - Scott Chandler ($5,300) is a popular play for the weekend lineups, as Andrew Garda noted on his Thursday Staff Cash Lineups. However, this is not a play that I agree with - Bill Belichick/Tom Brady are tricky to predict - it is obvious that Chandler SHOULD see more targets with Gronkowski out, so therefore Belichick/Brady may elect to make him a decoy during Week 13 and only actually throw at him once or twice. I never expect the Patriots to do what is "obvious" on the offensive side of the ball.

FanDuel-ing Kickers: Stephen Gostkowski ($5,100) and Chris Boswell ($4,500) are the top picks at place kicker this week, with 33% of the rosters featuring one or the other (three of nine) - Footballguys' staffers expect high scoring results from the IND/PIT and PHI/NE slates - on the part of Pittsburgh and New England, at least.

Good Luck everyone, and enjoy the stretch run into the playoffs! - Mark W.

Week 13 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 13 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, discuss matchups, and make their bold picks of the week.

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Kickers and Defenses

The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here are my kicker and defense boards for Week 13 early contests:

35% Stephen Gostkowski
20% Graham Gano
20% Chris Boswell
15% Mike Nugent
10% Robbie Gould

Like with tight ends, I rarely hit 40% with a singular kicker. Gostkowski is in a tier by himself for Week 13, therefore is nearly double the Gano-Boswell tier, while keeping his ownership in the 30s. Kickers are usually the easiest ownership rates to manage while constructing lineups as they vary by a few hundred in salary from highest to lowest. In a given week anywhere from four to six kickers will make the final list with a healthy mix of ownership.

30% Chicago
20% Cincinnati
20% New England
15% Washington
10% Arizona
5%   Denver

Chicago and Washington are ideal as their salaries are bottom-of-the-barrel at $4,400 against questionable quarterbacks. Targeting weak quarterbacks, especially when they are on the road, is a fast-track to creating a defense portfolio list. Ideally a defense is playing at home, with a strong Footballguys projection, and a low opposition Vegas team total for an ideal combination.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.

Follow @ChadParsonsNFL

Early FanDuel Portfolio Week 13: Tight Ends

The overall process is outlined in the quarterback edition for creating an ownership matrix. Two general rules of thumb are no player surpasses 50% of lineups (calculated by entry fees, not raw number of lineups) and the ratio from player to player is created by the tier separation of the Footballguys projections based on H-Value. Here is my tight end board for Week 13 early contests:

25% Delanie Walker
20% Greg Olsen
15% Travis Kelce
15% Jordan Reed
15% Scott Chandler
5%  Kyle Rudolph
5%  Julius Thomas

Without Rob Gronkowski or a glaring value play, the tight end position turns into a 5-player tier at the top. All are similarly-priced and two - Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce - have elite matchups. Rudolph and Thomas have top matchups, but low Footballguys projections, making them diversification plays at 5% each. I boosted Chandler when constructing lineups closer to 20% as he cheaper than the options above him at $5,300 and Danny Amendola's status could boost Chandler into the weekend contests on my board.

The tight end position is heavily-slanted towards who scores a touchdown as most see lower volume than their wide receiver peers. Therefore the positional ownership in my portfolio is typically more muted at the top - not going 'all in' on a single tight end as much as running back and wide receiver. Rarely will a tight end hit 40% ownership on my weekly board.

Finally, I continue to update my calculations with Footballguys projections all the way until mid-morning on Sunday. Those updated ownership goals shift Sunday lineups to even out the alterations from Thursday lineups.

Follow @ChadParsonsNFL