Saturday, September 26, 2015

Contrarian Plays: Week 3

In our weekly feature, "The Fade", we analyzed ownership percentages from a Thursday night GPP to get a sense of groupthink. We'll use those same numbers in "The Contrarian" but take the opposite approach in the name of roster uniqueness. Below is an excerpt from Week 3:


Player

Salary

Game

Own %

Player

Salary

Game

Own %

Rob Gronkowski $8400 JAC@NE 32.3 Kyle Rudolph $5300 SD@MIN 1.6
Tyler Eifert $5900 CIN@BAL 11.8 Jared Cook $5400 PIT@STL 1.2
Travis Kelce $6400 KC@GB 6.2 Martellus Bennett $5600 CHI@SEA 1
Jimmy Graham $6300 CHI@SEA 5.3 Ladarius Green $5600 SD@MIN 1
Greg Olsen $5900 NO@CAR 5 Vernon Davis $5400 SF@ARI 0.9
Heath Miller $5800 PIT@STL 4.1 Jason Witten $6000 ATL@DAL 0.7
Crockett Gillmore $5400 CIN@BAL 3.6 Zach Ertz $5200 PHI@NYJ 0.4
Eric Ebron $5100 DEN@DET 3.1 Delanie Walker $5200 IND@TEN 0.2
Richard Rodgers $4900 KC@GB 2.1 Jordan Cameron $5400 BUF@MIA 0.1

Basically, the only way to be a contrarian at tight end is by fading Gronkowski. He is the second highest owned player per Thursday night numbers. But if you’re looking for an upside play at a discount, Jared Cook is fifth in receptions and seventh in yards. The only thing missing from his game is a touchdown or two. Feel free to be courageous with a Foles/Cook stack.

Greg Olsen is the only receiver that’s going to consistently produce for the Panthers. It may not seem that way when you look at their box score, but he leads the team in targets despite only seeing three in Week 1. He’s also been targeted only two times in the red zone. The touchdown drought ends this Sunday against the Saints.

Before his injury in Week 1, Delanie Walker had converted all three of his targets into 43 yards and a touchdown. He’ll return to action just in time for the Titans first home game against a soft Colts defense that has yet to be tested by a tight end of his skill set. His salary of $5,200 gives us a plenty of roster flexibility without sacrificing our floor at this position.

Read the rest here.


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