Trust or Fade: Thursday Slate Injury Expectations

Steve Buzzard and I will be collaborating every Saturday on a feature spotlighting the week’s injury concerns. By Friday, we’ll have a full week of practice participation reports and media interviews to more accurately drill down on whether a player is likely to play, and play effectively, on Sunday.

But that doesn’t help you exploit injury edges in your Thursday-Sunday lineups.

So, I’ll be giving a quick “trust or fade” recommendation on the blog each week after the Wednesday practice participation report is released. It’ll be based on incomplete information, but I’m hoping to keep you from starting a player who is likely to be ineffective or take a smart risk on a player who others may be avoiding unnecessarily.

You’ll also want to check out our full midweek injury feature from Craig Zumsteg when it goes live late Wednesday night on our season-long article page.

Thursday Night Football Expectation

There are no questionable injury plays in tonight's game. Crockett Gilmore is the only skill position player with an injury concern and he's already been declared out. Your decisions on whether to roster or fade a Thursday night player should be entirely based on statistical expectation and salary.

Trust or Fade?

As of Wednesday night, I'd strongly recommend fading Andre Ellington, LeSean McCoy, and Sammy Watkins. Watkins and McCoy are likely out and I think Ellington is unlikely to play. Even if Ellington is active, his workload will be significantly limited.

Andrew Luck 9100  >>>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: LEAN TRUST
GPP: LEAN TRUST

In his Wednesday press conference, Chuck Pagano was adamant Luck will play on Sunday, but without knowing the specifics of Luck's shoulder injury, it's difficult to confidently make a recommendation. If you're risk averse, you should probably fade and wait for more information later in the week and hope to find a spot for Luck in your Sunday slate lineups. If you're willing to take on a little risk, Luck will undoubtedly be very low owned after three atypical performances and his appearance on the injury report.

Marshawn Lynch 8600  >>>>  (Hamstring | MNF / Thursday Practice Pending)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Don't risk Lynch in your Thursday slate cash lineups. I think there may be something to the argument Lynch was held out as a precaution last week, but we won't know that before Thursday roster lock. Pete Carroll called Lynch 50-50 to play on Wednesday and there are multiple nagging injuries (calf and back with the hamstring concern) capable of holding Lynch back on Monday night. Consider a little exposure in Thursday GPP, but Lynch shouldn't be a core play there either.

Julio Jones 9400  >>>>  (Hamstring/Toe | DNP)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

I'm worried we're getting close to a tipping point with the cascade of injuries on Jones. Fighting through a nagging hamstring strain that has now limited him in two games, Jones added a toe injury last week. It's impossible to recommend fading Jones after watching him hobble his way to 25 catches on 35 targets over the past two weeks, and the minor questions around Antonio Brown (no Roethlisberger) and Odell Beckham (facing Stephon Gilmore) make Jones attractive in GPPs despite what's likely to be high ownership.

Arian Foster 8000  >>>>  (Groin | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

These recommendations are likely to change by Sunday as I think Foster will play this week and see 15+ touches. But there's no reason to risk Foster in a Thursday cash lineup before knowing his Friday practice participation. Limited exposure in Thursday GPPs is reasonable. In his first game back last year, Foster's huge game propelled those bold enough to roster him to huge weeks in GPPs.

Alshon Jeffery 7600  >>>>  (Hamstring | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

When a skill position player has missed multiple weeks of practice with a mid-grade muscle strain, I want to see a few consecutive practices before feeling comfortable using them in a lineup. That's where we are with Jeffery, who's already had one reconditioning injury this year.

Drew Brees 8400  >>>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

There's more optimism around Brees this week than last. Vegas making the Saints a sizable favorite is also telling. But until we're certain Brees' practice throwing regimen hasn't caused a recurrence of pain and weakness, he can't be trusted in a lineup.

DeMarco Murray 7600  >>>>  (Hamstring | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Murray may get back to a full practice by the end of the week, but there's a high risk of an aggravation while he reconditions this week and there's no reason to expect anything less than a heavy rotation with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles if Murray is on the active gameday roster.
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Check back on Friday for our Injury Spotlight and Lineup Recommendation feature. Until then, follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking analysis on practice participation and media interviews. Finally, on Sunday morning, I’ll be adapting my Injury Expectations column for this blog to help navigate any tricky game time decisions.

Hurricane Warning: Fade Philadelphia vs. Washington

In non-football news that affects football, it seems we may be in for our first major weather event of the year. Hurricane Joaquin is currently bearing down on the middle Atlantic coast, and it could wreak havoc on Sunday.

The storm track as of Wednesday evening.

Word broke today that the Philadelphia-Washington game scheduled in the nation's capital may actually be postponed due to the storm. Fortunately for the NFL, both teams actually have a Week 8 bye they can fall back to if necessary.

Storm tracks are cone-like for a reason -- there is a reason meteorologists don't constantly win the lottery -- so it's quite possible the storm will stay out at sea without making any sort of landfall or hit North Carolina well before it gets to Washington D.C. But the threat of postponement coupled with the likelihood of nasty weather regardless of landfall means you should probably fade Washington and Philadelphia players in Thursday contests. Without the ability to late-swap, you could be stuck with goose eggs in your lineup.

UPDATE: The NOAA thinks Joaquin may not be close to Washington D.C. until Monday, now.

The storm track as of Thursday morning.

If Joaquin continues to slow or stays on this track, the game might actually be safe. Keep an eye on it through this evening, but it might still be best to fade the contest in Thursday night slates. You never know if it might speed up and slam Virginia on Sunday.

Week 4 Fanduel NFL Free-For-All

We've got some exciting news to share with y'all. This week, all of our FanDuel NFL features and articles will be free.

We're talking contests spotlights. GPP ownership numbers. Tournament fades and contrarian plays. Projections. Round table discussions. Even the Interactive Value Chart. Free. No subscription required.

Why free? Because when you win, we win. And we want to give our future subscribers a glimpse of what we're all about.

So go ahead. Click away. Maybe start with the IVC. Or the contest spotlight. Our Wisdom of the Staff and cash game lineups will be available soon, along with tons of other great features throughout the week.

The season is young and there is a lot to cover. Take advantage of this one week only offer, and let's be champions this weekend.

FanDuel Survivor - Just $5 and a TON of fun

https://www.fanduel.com/nfl-survivor

FanDuel rolled out their first NFL Survivor tournament this week and I couldn't be happier.  The premise is easy.  Each week they will cut the pool by 25-50%.  Make the cut and compete for another week.  It's a $5 GPP with 57,471 people in it.  But you don't need to beat all of them this week.  You just need to stay ahead of those cutlines.

Make 5 cuts and you start cashing.

Get to the final 2,000 and you will participate in a GPP with all those still standing for awesome prizes.  The Top 5 go to Vegas and take part in their Championship Weekend.

Joe Bryant and I will be in Las Vegas (as guests of FanDuel for this weekend).  Hoping a FBG or two or five can secure a seat and party with us.

A Counter Strategy I Use in Cash Games

I have been perfecting this over the last few seasons and yesterday it showcased why I like the strategy so well.

It starts with what I perceive as this myth:  "Don't Stack your QB/WR in cash games".

I have always scratched my head with that one.  That's exactly what you do when you would like to score the most points and win a GPP.  And when a matchup is great and We expect a QB to shred it, why wouldn't we double up on that situation if the WR was reasonably priced as well.

Not only do I stack in nearly all of my cash game submits, I also look to get the best WR or TE on the opposing team in my lineup (sometimes there is not someone I like enough to warrant this).  In my cash games this week, I started with these pairings:

Cam Newton / Olsen Olsen stack only
Carson Palmer / Larry Fitzgerald stack only
Andrew Luck / T.Y. Hilton stack and Kendall Wright
Tom Brady / Julian Edelman stack and Allen Hurns
Tom Brady / Rob Gronkowski stack and Allen Hurns
Russell Wilson / Jimmy Graham stack only
Marcus Mariota / Kendall Wright stack and T.Y. Hilton
Eli Manning / Odell Beckham Jr, stack and Jordan Reed (Thu)
Matt Ryan / Julio Jones stack only
Ben Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown stack and Kenny Britt
Nick Foles / Kenny Britt stack and Antonio Brown
Blake Bortles / Allen Hurns and Julian Edelman
Aaron Rodgers / Randall Cobb stack and Travis Kelce
Alex Smith / Travis Kelce stack and Randall Cobb

I am set to win heavily with 12 of these 14 this week.  But forget the results for awhile.  I will tell you why I favor this approach:

- When your quarterback is awful (or gets hurt), your lineup is in deep trouble anyway.  Suffice it to say the Ben Roethlisberger roster above is not going to win.  But would any Roethlisberger roster you created this week have won?  If so it did it with everyone else.  

- By starting with different bases of 2-3 players, you end up with a wider range of dollars left.  This forces you into choosing slightly different players and limiting being over-exposed to any one guy.

- These same lineups can be used in 2X, 3X, 5X, and smaller GPPs.  They are high variance plays that can get way above the cutline when all three parts of the stack work. In fact this is what I like the most about this particular strategy).  Let's say you are going to allocate $100 to a 3 part stacked lineup.

I would allocate it like this:

$50 (50%) in 2X and 50/50s

$30 (30%) in 3X

$20 (20%) in 5X and smaller GPP

You get the benefit of a major hit when it all goes well.   

I realize that 14 starting stack combos can be a bit extreme for people (me included). In most weeks, I am looking to play 4-6 such combos.  This week had a lot of games where I thought a shoot was definitely possible and wanted these extra lineups in play to minimize variance on the players I really liked.  

Trust or Fade: Sunday Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night FanDuel slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which game time decisions are safe to roster on the FanDuel Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

I'm not going to write up Carlos Hyde, C.J. Anderson, C.J. Spiller, Justin Forsett, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Delanie Walker and Jason Witten. I think all are healthy enough to remove injury concerns from your deliberations this week. In particular, I don't believe Evans will be on a snap count today and I would project Gurley to get 8-14 touches.

I'm also not going to write up Eric Decker, Demarco Murray, and Jordan Cameron. I doubt Decker will make the Jets' active roster and I wouldn't consider Murray or Cameron in any format.

That leaves a short list, but it includes three critical situations.

MARSHAWN LYNCH | 8700 | Calf Strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

I had Lynch as a core cash game play for much of this week and I know I wasn't alone. The DNP on Friday was a clear indication the Seahawks felt it was more important for Lynch to recover and rehab than participate in any light workout and walkthrough. The "cautious optimism" reported on Saturday means only that the Seahawks saw enough from Lynch not to rule him out. Were this any player not named Marshawn Lynch facing such a soft matchup, he'd be a clear fade. As it is, the late Sunday start will keep me from using Lynch in my cash lineups. I may consider him as a low-owned GPP play, but there's lots of risk there, too.

EDDIE LACY | 7700 | Ankle Sprain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

As the week progressed, the news grew more positive on Lacy. But that's primarily because the Packers were so pessimistic earlier in the week. I think Lacy has a good chance to be active Monday night but I'm less certain he'll be able to handle more than 10-12 touches. He can't be considered in cash lineups and there's not enough upside to consider him a GPP play either.

CHRIS IVORY | 7100 | Quad Strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Ivory is a game time decision and will reportedly have to convince the medical staff and coaches he's healthy enough to play. He's had one less day of recovery and rehab after last week's Monday night game and was still sore midweek. I don't think there's enough evidence to argue he'll be inactive today, but I don't see him getting his usual workload. He's too risky to use in a DFS contest.

DAVANTE ADAMS | 6400 | Ankle Sprain | Questionable 
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Adams is on the probable side of questionable but too risky to trust in lineups. Aaron Rodgers has enough weapons -- even without Lacy and Jordy Nelson -- to ignore a mostly healthy Adams.

Hope variance shines on you today in your FanDuel contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations.

Medical Check

The start of the NFL season has been riddled with injuries and this week is no different. How you approach the Jets and Seahawks game on the injury front may be the most important factor in determining your profitability for the week. See how I am approaching them here.

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 3 Preview

The weekly feature, 'Projecting Ownership Percentage', is up on the Footballguys.com FanDuel page. The data is used to construct both GPP and Cash lineups. Here are a few highlights:

Consensus Plays of the Week

Tom Brady is the clear preferred option at quarterback. The Patriots are strong favorites against Jacksonville and Brady has two strong games under his belt.

Dion Lewis leads the way at the running back position, upwards of 20% ownership in early contests. Lewis has dominated the snaps and production in New England's backfield, being everything we thought Shane Vereen could be in recent seasons as a dual-threat option.

Against the Grain

Nick Foles has minimal ownership, but an outstanding matchup against the liberal Pittsburgh defense to opposing quarterbacks. Stacking Foles with Kenny Britt or Jared Cook makes plenty of sense in one of your GPP lineups in Week 3.

Ameer Abdullah: Joique Bell has looked pedestrian at best in Detroit's backfield with Abdullah flashing in space. With Denver's outstanding pass defense, look for Abdullah and Eric Ebron to be best bets for Matthew Stafford.

Check out the rest of the article over at Footballguys.com

Contrarian Plays: Week 3

In our weekly feature, "The Fade", we analyzed ownership percentages from a Thursday night GPP to get a sense of groupthink. We'll use those same numbers in "The Contrarian" but take the opposite approach in the name of roster uniqueness. Below is an excerpt from Week 3:

Player	Salary	Game	Own %	Player	Salary	Game	Own %
Rob Gronkowski	$8400	JAC@NE	32.3	Kyle Rudolph	$5300	SD@MIN	1.6
Tyler Eifert	$5900	CIN@BAL	11.8	Jared Cook	$5400	PIT@STL	1.2
Travis Kelce	$6400	KC@GB	6.2	Martellus Bennett	$5600	CHI@SEA	1
Jimmy Graham	$6300	CHI@SEA	5.3	Ladarius Green	$5600	SD@MIN	1
Greg Olsen	$5900	NO@CAR	5	Vernon Davis	$5400	SF@ARI	0.9
Heath Miller	$5800	PIT@STL	4.1	Jason Witten	$6000	ATL@DAL	0.7
Crockett Gillmore	$5400	CIN@BAL	3.6	Zach Ertz	$5200	PHI@NYJ	0.4
Eric Ebron	$5100	DEN@DET	3.1	Delanie Walker	$5200	IND@TEN	0.2
Richard Rodgers	$4900	KC@GB	2.1	Jordan Cameron	$5400	BUF@MIA	0.1

Basically, the only way to be a contrarian at tight end is by fading Gronkowski. He is the second highest owned player per Thursday night numbers. But if you’re looking for an upside play at a discount, Jared Cook is fifth in receptions and seventh in yards. The only thing missing from his game is a touchdown or two. Feel free to be courageous with a Foles/Cook stack.

Greg Olsen is the only receiver that’s going to consistently produce for the Panthers. It may not seem that way when you look at their box score, but he leads the team in targets despite only seeing three in Week 1. He’s also been targeted only two times in the red zone. The touchdown drought ends this Sunday against the Saints.

Before his injury in Week 1, Delanie Walker had converted all three of his targets into 43 yards and a touchdown. He’ll return to action just in time for the Titans first home game against a soft Colts defense that has yet to be tested by a tight end of his skill set. His salary of $5,200 gives us a plenty of roster flexibility without sacrificing our floor at this position.

Read the rest here.

Follow @justinbonnema

Fades and Loss Leaders: Week 3

Each week, in a feature titled "The Fade", we'll gather Thursday night ownership percentages and identify a few players we'll want to avoid and a few bandwagons we'll want to jump on. Below is an excerpt from this week:

We like high-floor players that also provide a ceiling capable of swinging tournaments. As such, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are our type. And as long as Palmer is locked into Larry Fitzgerald, we have no reason to ignore his $6,700 salary.

Travis Benjamin is the opposite of these players. After a few splash plays the crowd is all over him at 15.7 percent. Last week two of his three receptions accounted for 95 percent of his yards. One reception went for 60 yards and a score. Another went for 50 yards and a score. Two out of three ain’t bad, but chasing those plays on a weekly basis is akin to digging for oil on a city street. He added a third touchdown on a punt return, decorating his FanDuel box score with 31 flashy points. To summarize, Benjamin is the definition of a high variance player. His speed means he could blow the top off of any defense he faces, especially the one he’ll host on Sunday, but averaging 34 yards per reception is unsustainable. He’s an easy fade.

Read the rest here.

Follow @justinbonnema

FanDuel Week 3 Starting Stacks

I just posted my FanDuel stacks of the week, covering less common stacks, defensive stacks, and twists on highly-owned stacks. Here's one stack idea. Be sure to check out the full article for tons of other stacks.

Blake Bortles ($6,700) + Allen Hurns ($5,100) = $11,800

Pre-season hypster Allen Robinson ($6,600) had a huge game last week with 155 yards and two touchdowns. At that price, i wouldn't blame you if you wanted to use him in this stack instead. But Bill Belichick tends to focus his defense on neutralizing opponents' top weapon. Bortles will be looking to the other Allen to pick up the slack as the Jaguars futilely play catch-up as 13.5-point underdogs. Target hog, Rashad Greene, is also out of the picture on injured reserve.

Week 3 FanDuel Show on The Audible

Check out the Week 3 FanDuel show on The Audible. Every Friday morning Cecil Lammy, Alex Miglio, and Austin Lee dig into the Vegas lines, cover the key WR/CB matchups, dissect some unique tournament stacks, and make their out-on-a-limb picks of the week.

Listen here or subscribe to The Audible on iTunes and never miss an episode.

Week 3 Footballguys + Rotogrinders Show

Be sure to check out the Week 3 episode of The Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour presented by Rotogrinders. Dan Back, John Lee, and Austin Lee air live every Wednesday at 9:30pm ET. They cover key injuries, predict ownership percentages, and make their bold picks of the week. Is Travis Benjamin for real? Can Jordan Matthews survive Revis Island? Will Andrew Luck, DeMarco Murray, and Jimmy Graham get back on track? And Austin issues the first DubSmash challenge!

You can watch this week's episode on-demand or download the audio version to listen on the go.

FanDuel Sunday Cash Lineups

As the week's practices wind down, we're getting a clearer picture of the injury situations across the league, including closely-watched players like Drew Brees, Alshon Jeffery, and Eddie Lacy. As always, I commend to everyone who is monitoring an injury situation the work of Footballguys Dr. Jene Bramel (his Twitter Feed; his Columns at Footballguys.com and his Thursday injury-related CrackingFanDuel Blog post Thursday Injury Expectations ) and Craig Zumsteg's weekly Injury Insight column.

Looking at the Staff Sunday Cash Lineups (scroll down past the Thursday material):

No Consensus at Tight End

There is a wide variety of tight ends in play across the Footballguys.com Staff's Sunday lineups - eight different tight ends are on at least one of the 13 lineups - Greg Olsen ($5,900) appears on three of the 13, and Tyler Eifert ($5,900) is also favored on three of the 13. Kyle Rudolph ($5,300) appears on two of the rosters, with Rob Gronkowski ($8,400), Delanie Walker ($5,200), Jimmy Graham ($6,300), Coby Fleener ($4,900), and Ladarius Green ($5,600) checking in on one roster each.

Notable Running Back Pairing

Marshawn Lynch ($8,700) is heavily favored this week, appearing on nine of the lineups, and he is paired with Jonathan Stewart ($6,500) on three of the lineups. The weak defenses of both these running back's opponents (Chicago and New Orleans, respective) and the fact that both of these teams look likely to start second-string quarterbacks (Jimmy Clausen and Luke McCown) are spurring the interest in Lynch and Stewart.

Dominant Defenses

Seattle at home vs. Chicago ($5,300), Denver at Detroit ($4,600), and the Jets at home vs. Philadelphia ($4,500) are the favored defenses this week, with Seattle appearing on four rosters, while Denver and the Jets checked in on two. As I note in my comments regarding New York: "The Jets have four interceptions and six fumble recoveries over two games - they are creating turnovers at a torrid rate! This, and the Eagles' offense is playing horridly right now - the Jets' D should feast on the inept Eagles at home on Sunday."

Three Way Tie at Placekicker

Stephen Gostkowski ($5,000), Graham Gano ($4,700) and Chandler Catanzaro ($4,700) each drew three adherents among the Staff this week - each playing for teams that should score prolifically on Sunday.

Good Luck on FanDuel this weekend everyone!

Staff Thursday Cash Plays - Week 3

Let’s cut to the chase—last week was rough for a lot of people. Like most things though, DFS isn’t going to wait for you to get over it, which means you have to get up, dust yourself off and get back to the grind.

As always, we’ve amassed the staff to give you some idea of how they’re bouncing back this week, which you can check out fully here.

Staff Trends

Straight Money Lynch

Of a dozen staff members, eight have Marshawn Lynch in the mix, despite some huge struggles in Week 2 and a mess of an offensive line. Of course, this week it’s all about the Chicago Bears matchup, which is too good to pass up even at $8700.

Thanks, but no thanks, Thursday

The only player to make the Thursday lineups from the actual Thursday night game was Josh Reed. No Odell Beckham Jr at all, which is interesting considering he just blew up Atlanta. It’s likely that $9100 price point that had us all fade, especially when paired with that awful offensive line. I know that was a concern for me.

Meanwhile, Reed is just $5300 and could represent some solid value, especially if he slips by owners looking at the bigger names.

Aiming for value at receiver

While there are lots of Antonio Brown/Larry Fitzgerald and a few Julio Jones picks, there were a lot more value picks at receiver. John Brown, Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall  and Donte Moncrief all made appearances. It looks like this week, not too many people went overboard at wide receiver and spread their money into other positions.

Glaring Omissions

Adrian Peterson

Peterson continues to get faded, with only two people starting him. Part of that is the offensive line and part of that is the $8900 price which, when one pairs it with the $8700 for starting Marshawn Lynch, was a bit high for the return.

Aaron Rodgers

The difference between daily fantasy and regular fantasy gets highlighted in a lot of ways, and perhaps no more than in DFS’ treatment of Aaron Rodgers, who is a ‘must play’ every week in your regular leagues and not started by any of the staff in Week 3. It’s a combination of price ($9100 this week) and value elsewhere. Especially considering guys like Nick Foles ($6500) have really good value this week. You can get production from a cheaper guy who won’t leave you so low on points that you get left behind in your games.

Diamonds in the Rough

Richard Rodgers - $4900

Coming off back to back games of consistent targets, capped with a touchdown against Seattle, Richard Rodgers seems to be firmly in the gameplan for the Packers. Certainly he won’t supplant Randall Cobb any time soon, but as a No. 2 hasn’t quite emerged, and the quarterback is willing to throw a touchdown pass to anywhere, Rodgers might be a good alternative if you want to spend money somewhere else.

Isaiah Crowell - $6600

Duke Johnson doesn’t seem to be threatening to take the job anymore and the Oakland run defense while not a complete wreck, isn’t great. Crowell has the potential for a big game and the right price to allow you to spend money at another position.

Thursday Night Spotlight

This week's Thursday night game is a little less exciting than the last two but we still get to see Odell Beckham Jr. which will make the game a bit more exciting by himself. But should you consider Beckham, Manning, Cousins, Garcon, or Reed for your games this week? Find out here.

Trust or Fade: Thursday Injury Expectations

Steve Buzzard and I will be collaborating every Saturday on a feature spotlighting the week’s injury concerns. By Friday, we’ll have a full week of practice participation reports and media interviews to more accurately drill down on whether a player is likely to play, and play effectively, on Sunday.

But that doesn’t help you exploit injury edges in your Thursday-Sunday lineups.

So, I’ll be giving a quick “trust or fade” recommendation on the blog each week after the Wednesday practice participation report is released. It’ll be based on incomplete information, but I’m hoping to keep you from starting a player who is likely to be ineffective or take a smart risk on a player who others may be avoiding unnecessarily.

You’ll also want to check out our full midweek injury feature from Craig Zumsteg when it goes live late Wednesday night on our season-long article page.

Thursday Night Football Expectation

There are no questionable injury plays in tonight's game. DeSean Jackson and Victor Cruz are out. Jordan Reed is off the injury report this week after proving his quad strain was a very low grade situation last week. Your decisions on whether to roster or fade a Thursday night player should be entirely based on statistical expectation and salary.

Trust or Fade?

The Wednesday injury report is ugly. I have 52 offensive skill position players on my midweek tracking list. Many of them will fully practice by Friday and be easy to trust by Sunday morning. I'll update this feature later this afternoon with notes from the Thursday practices.

As of Thursday morning, you can trust Marshawn Lynch (calf, DNP), Matt Forte (knee, limited), C.J. Anderson (toe/ankle, full), A.J. Green (knee, DNP), Julio Jones (hamstring, limited), T.Y. Hilton (not listed), Randall Cobb (shoulder, pending), Matthew Stafford (rib, full), Ryan Tannehill (ankle, full), Tyrod Taylor (chest, full), and Jason Witten (ankle/knee, limited). I think it's highly likely each of them see their usual workloads this week.

As of Thursday morning, you should fade Arian Foster (groin, limited), Jordan Cameron (groin, DNP), Eric Decker (knee, DNP), and Ladarius Green (concussion, DNP). I don't believe any of them have a realistic chance to play this week.

There are a number of other players I'd clearly fade, but they require a bit more discussion below.

Eddie Lacy 7700  >>>>  (Ankle | MNF - DNP Thursday)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

The Packers weren't as optimistic as I'd have liked early this week, saying only they need to evaluate Lacy in practice this week. On video, Lacy's injury is a low ankle sprain, but those can still be troublesome. It's possible I'll have a different recommendation for the Sunday slate later this week, but Lacy is a clear fade for the Thursday slate.

Alshon Jeffery 7500  >>>>  (Hamstring/Calf | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Jeffery still isn't practicing after straining a hamstring last week. Compensation injuries can be difficult to overcome and the latest setback resets the reconditioning process. Jeffery shouldn't be in cash lineups this week and he's a huge risk even in very deep GPP contests.

Mike Evans 7400  >>>>  (Hamstring | Full)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Evans was on a snap count last week and those high leverage snap count situations breed too much variance. Evans made it through last week's game without a setback and fully practiced on Wednesday. You may choose to fade Evans for other reasons, but we're nearly out of the woods on the injury concern now.

Todd Gurley 6300  >>>>  (Knee | Full)
Cash: LEAN FADE
GPP: LEAN TRUST

Gurley will play this week. Unfortunately, it's still unclear whether the Rams will trust him with two out of three series or any passing down work. It's difficult to project him for more than 10-12 touches -- the Rams are bringing him along too slowly to believe they'll install him as the lead committee back or more yet. But the potential to break a long run and see the majority of goal line work makes him a consideration in deep GPP contests.

Drew Brees 8400  >>>>  (Shoulder | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

There was renewed optimism on Brees on Thursday morning. But Brees has yet to be cleared to throw and there's no guarantee the pain and weakness from the rotator cuff bruise has fully resolved. There's way too much risk to use Brees in a Thursday slate lineup.

DeMarco Murray 7800  >>>>  (Hamstring | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Midweek muscle strains are very tough to handicap. Sometimes, it's truly more cramp/tightness than strain and the player returns to a full workload. Jordan Reed and LeSean McCoy last week are excellent examples. In this case, the team was worried enough to send Murray for a MRI. That's clearly more than tightness and hydration. Even if you somehow could talk yourself into Murray in the face of messy snap counts, poor production, and a floundering Eagles' offense, the injury situation is too murky to roster him in a Thursday contest.

EDIT: Murray did not practice on Thursday and is considered "iffy" for Sunday. I already have FADE in capital letters above, but for those who are still looking at Murray as an extreme contrarian play, consider this a final warning. Ryan Mathews, however, is looking like a stronger Thursday slate contrarian option.

DeAndre Hopkins 7800  >>>>  (Concussion | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Avoid all players with concussions in Thursday slates. Even if there are signs the player is progressing through the protocol smoothly, the risk of a late week recurrence in symptoms is always there. I'll revisit Hopkins on Sunday morning.

EDIT: Hopkins reported concussion symptoms on Monday morning. Standard protocol is a five day graduated return. Many teams have cleared players in less, but Hopkins had symptoms the day following the game. Bill O'Brien sounds optimistic, but you shouldn't be just yet.

Brandin Cooks 7000  >>>>  (Ankle | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

A Thursday report from Nick Underhill suggests Cooks will play this week. However, there are no specifics on the diagnosis yet. With this level of uncertainty and the unknowns surrounding Drew Brees, fade Cooks until more information is available.

LeSean McCoy 7500  >>>>  (Hamstring | DNP)
Cash: LEAN TRUST
GPP: LEAN TRUST

I was surprised McCoy looked as healthy as he did last week. But the acceleration and willingness to make jump cuts McCoy needs to be successful was evident. However, the missed Wednesday practice (McCoy worked on Wednesday in Week 1 and 2) and a less than optimistic media session after practice raise the risk enough to recommend him as a "lean trust" only for Thursday contests.

EDIT: McCoy fully practiced today. There's always a risk of a late game setback, but McCoy looks safe to roster right now.

Chris Ivory 7100  >>>>  (Quad | DNP)
Cash: LEAN TRUST
GPP: LEAN TRUST

Watching Ivory hurdle defenders on Monday night was enough for me to feel the groin strain wasn't a major issue. But we're seeing cascade strains already here, with Ivory missing Wednesday with a quad strain. Thursday participation will be key here. The matchup is strong enough to consider Ivory on the Thursday slate, but I'd strongly consider waiting until Sunday if the Thursday participation isn't favorable.

EDIT: Ivory continues to be sore and looks less likely to play than I noted above. I don't know that Bilal Powell has become a strong low-priced option for Thursday slates yet, but I'd now lean away from trusting Ivory.

Lamar Miller 6600  >>>>  (Ankle | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Miller left a close game with an ankle injury and not returned for precautionary reasons, missed the following week of practice, and been active the following week last year. So, the DNP on Wednesday isn't a good indicator of his Sunday status. But he's still not safe to use in Thursday contests.

Tevin Coleman 6200  >>>>  (Rib | DNP)
Cash:  FADE
GPP: FADE

There is a Thursday report suggesting Coleman could try to play through the pain this Sunday with the aid of pain-killing injections, padding, and cryoanesthesia (freezing the nerve near the injury). That's true, it's possible. But that's going to be the case for the next month. I still think it's a long shot the Falcons push Coleman to play this week. He's a clear fade until he practices with the intent to play rather than just condition.
_________________________________________

Check back on Friday for our Injury Spotlight and Lineup Recommendation feature. Until then, follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking analysis on practice participation and media interviews. Finally, on Sunday morning, I’ll be adapting my Injury Expectations column for this blog to help navigate any tricky game time decisions.

FanDuel Player Interview: mppe12

The goal of this interview series is to learn more about some of the top FanDuel players and hopefully improve our own daily fantasy play in the process.

BACKGROUND

Name: Mike Perez
FanDuel username: mppe12
Birthplace: Chicago IL
College: Southern Illinois University
Occupation: Owner of American Tap, a sports bar in Addison, Illinois

INTERVIEW

You were born in Chicago, so that makes your favorite NFL team the...

Chicago Bears.

Do you happen to have any favorite NFL players?

Any player that wins me a tourney lol.

Chicago fans have faced a lot of adversity, but what is your most memorable sports moment?

Still to be determined! Hopefully Watching the Cubs win World Series! Wishful thinking. :)

How many years have you played fantasy football?

For season-long leagues, I've been playing for about 16 years.

Do you play any other fantasy sports?

I just started basketball and baseball.

When did you sign up on FanDuel and how did you first hear about the site?

Heard about FanDuel on the XM radio and joined about 2 years ago.

Excluding Footballguys, do you have any go-to sites for fantasy football information or advice?

I like Rotogrinders, including Dan Back's podcasts.

Would you be able to describe your recent ascension in daily fantasy sports?

I just started regularly playing daily fantasy basketball in February after I hit a $20,000 lineup. I decided to do baseball everyday in April. I then hit on a $100,000 winning lineup for baseball along with qualifying for two World Fantasy Baseball Championship entries and two other live regional championships. I call it strategic luck! But the most important thing is to have strong BANKROLL MANAGEMENT -- I could of used that early on!

If a friend wanted to start playing on FanDuel, what advice would you offer?

Find out what Mike's advice would be and read the rest of the interview on Footballguys.com.

Musings on FanDuel/Arian Foster and the Houston OL

The Texans' offensive line got depleted during the contest in Carolina on Sunday, losing right tackle Jeff Adams who was forced from the contest due to a right knee injury. His leg was placed in an air cast before he was carted off - we'll see how serious the injury is, but initial indications are troubling.

Couple Adams' situation with the fact that left tackle Duane Brown was unable to practice last week due to his injured hand - Brown was inactive on Sunday after being listed as doubtful to play on Friday.  Brown (thumb injury) said after the game that he is unsure if he will be able to play in Week Three. 'Not sure yet. We're taking it a day at a time, seeing how it progresses. Hopefully. I'd like to get out there, but we'll see.' Also out of action right now is guard Xavier Sua-Filo, who was unable to practice last week due to his injured calf. Sua-Filo was inactive on Sunday after being listed as out on Friday.

The rehabilitation of Arian Foster's injured groin has been progressing swiftly and well according to all reports, but don't be too hasty to insert Foster into your FanDuel lineups until we see the Houston offensive line A). regain some of their missing starters or add some quality free agents to replace the missing starters and B). produce better results than a 2.7 yards per carry average during a game (the Texans had 23/61/1 rushing at Carolina, and quarterback Ryan Mallett scored the TD with 1/6/1 rushing).

Foster can't create holes in the opposing defensive front all by himself - right now the Texans' backs are getting precious little help from the patchwork offensive line in front of them.

Week 2: Last-Minute Injury Reactions

Here are some last-minute thoughts on last-minute injury news for Week 2.

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (out)

I was already fading the Tennessee offense this week. Until we see more, last week's explosion was more aberration than norm—the Bucs are terrible. Having said that, Walker's absence boosts receiver Kendall Wright ($6,100) a bit, and tight end Anthony Fasano ($4,600) becomes a GPP dart at near-minimum salary.

C.J. Spiller, RB, New Orleans Saints (active)

This was coming, but Spiller was officially made active this morning. There is little reason to stick him in lineups at $6,100 given his likely limited usage.

LeSean McCoy is active for the #Bills, but expect he’ll be less than 100 percent. For #Saints, CJ Spiller to be used in red zone & 3rd down

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 20, 2015

This does ding Mark Ingram ($8,100), but the matchup is so strong that you shouldn't be scrambling to make changes there. Khiry Robinson ($4,900) is a fade at this point, even at that price.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears (out)

A week after coming back from a calf issue, Alshon Jeffery was ruled out with a hamstring injury this week. This is a huge blow to to the Bears offense -- Marquess Wilson ($4,500) and Eddie Royal ($4,800) are now the starters.

You will note those are some pretty nice prices. The question is who will Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson cover? He shut down Saints receiver Brandin Cooks last week, and it's quite possible he'll be on more-prolific Royal. Wilson is a better physical specimen, though, and Peterson could be tasked with keeping him in check.

Both of them are good GPP plays, but Martellus Bennett becomes an even better cash option this week. Even at $6,100, Bennett could see double-digit targets from quarterback Jay Cutler.

Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams (active)
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (out)

Both of these situations make sense -- Gurley should be held out as long as possible coming back from that torn ACL, though it looks like he's on track to make his Week 3 debut.

Mason's activation means bad news for Benny Cunningham ($5,800). A Week 1 sleeper, Cunningham is no longer minimum-priced. Washington's defense, meanwhile, held down a good Dolphins offense last week. The run defense has been surprisingly good since last season.

Meanwhile, Mason is way too expensive at $7,200 to even consider.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (active)

By many accounts, Mike Evans could have played last week. The Buccaneers kept him out to avoid aggravating his injury, which could be good news for his Week 2 output.

At $8,100, however, it's tough to trust the second-year wideout this week. The game script says the Buccaneers will be passing the ball a ton in the second half, but his lack of rapport with quarterback Jameis Winston combined with the threat of injury aggravation just makes him a fade. (Note: that is polar opposite of what the great Dr. Jene Bramel told you. Probably better to listen to him.)

His return may or may not impact fellow receiver Vincent Jackson ($7,200), who had a relatively quiet Week 1 despite a favorable game script and matchup. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is still a minimum-priced tight end worth having at $4,500 in all formats. Winston looked his way plenty, and Evans could draw additional defensive attention.

Follow @AlexMiglio

Trust or Fade: Sunday Morning Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night FanDuel slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which injured players are safe to roster on the FanDuel Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

JULIO JONES | 8800 | Hamstring Strain | Probable
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Jones fully practiced on Friday and has been adamant all week that he's good to go today. He may leave the field a little more often today than usual, but he did so in the second half of last week's game and remained productive. There's a lower than usual floor with Jones, but the ceiling remains high.

ALSHON JEFFERY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable

Cash: FADE

GPP: FADE

There's only a slim chance Jeffery will dress today. He wasn't at full strength last week and now is dealing with two separate muscle strains. If he somehow makes the active roster, he's not a consideration for your FanDuel lineup.

MIKE EVANS | 8100 | Hamstring Strain | Questionable
Cash: LEAN TRUST
GPP: LEAN TRUST

Early Sunday morning reports have Evans likely to play. However, he may not be 100%. The full week of limited practices make it unlikely Evans will be used as a decoy, but there's no guarantee Evans is healthy enough to see his usual targets. His talent and matchup are enough to consider him in lineups today, but he's a risky contrarian play until he proves he's able to separate on downfield routes.

T.Y. HILTON | 7600 | Knee contusion | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

We won't know Hilton's roster status until tomorrow night, but the news has trended positive all week. However, making the active roster and feeling strong enough to play effectively are two very different things. Hilton needed treatment and couldn't practice until Saturday. He may also see Darrelle Revis is he's active. Running decoy routes to occupy Revis is just as likely as Hilton recovering to close to full strength by Monday. I'd avoid him, even in GPP lineups.

LESEAN MCCOY | 8100 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

McCoy is currently expected to play. But he's clearly less than full strength and at high risk of another setback. I don't believe he'll see more than 8-10 touches and he's unlikely to be effective if he does. He may play just enough to make Karlos Williams a disappointing upside option.

C.J. SPILLER | 6100 | Knee | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Multiple Sunday morning reports have Spiller likely to play today. But it's expected he'll only see time in limited packages and he may not be the primary option even on those passing down plays. I don't see enough upside to use him as a contrarian GPP play and he's a longshot to reach cash game value.

I don't have enough information to make a strong recommendation on Jordan Reed or Todd Gurley. Reed is expected to play, but he has a long history of aggravating muscle strains and is a boom-bust option in both cash and GPP lineups. Gurley is a game time decision but unlikely to see more than 8-10 touches if he goes today.

Best of luck today in your FanDuel contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations, which includes additional thoughts on lesser players like Chris Ivory, Delanie Walker, and Justin Forsett.

Projecting Ownership: FanDuel Week 2

In the weekly feature 'Projecting Ownership Percentage' at Footballguys.com, data from Thursday Night contest locks are discussed, as well as cash and tournament lineups. Here are a few highlights:

Drew Brees-Brandin Cooks is a popular stack for Week 2. The pair had a tough outing at Arizona to open the season, but getting Tampa Bay in their home dome is a strong rebound bet.

Heath Miller was sparsely owned for Thursday contests and offers a high floor for $600 less than highly-owned Jason Witten.

James Jones is getting all the ownership love in Green Bay this week. Tournament lineups can gain uniqueness with Davante Adams instead.

The Saints are an outstanding value by the Footballguys projections this week and come at a bargain basement $4,500 salary. Oh, and they are not highly-owned by Thursday Night numbers.

For the rest of the data and recommendations, check out 'Projecting Ownership Percentage' over at Footballguys.com.

Follow @ChadParsonsNFL

Contrarian Plays: Week 2

In our weekly feature, "The Fade", we analyzed ownership percentages from a Thursday night GPP to get a sense of groupthink. We'll use those same numbers in "The Contrarian" but take the opposite approach in the name of roster uniqueness. Below is an excerpt from Week 2:

Player	Salary	Game	Own %	Player	Salary	Game	Own %
Carlos Hyde	$7000	SF@PIT	33.4	Chris Johnson	$5700	ARI@CHI	3
Christopher Ivory	$6900	NYJ@IND	18.9	Tevin Coleman	$6500	ATL@NYG	1.8
Ameer Abdullah	$6400	DET@MIN	13.2	Benny Cunningham	$5800	STL@WAS	1.8
Matt Forte	$8900	ARI@CHI	12.2	Alfred Morris	$7300	STL@WAS	1.6
Mark Ingram	$8000	TB@NO	9.3	LeSean McCoy	$8100	NE@BUF	1.4
Justin Forsett	$7800	BAL@OAK	9.2	Doug Martin	$6700	TB@NO	1.4
Bishop Sankey	$6500	TEN@CLE	9.1	LeGarrette Blount	$6400	NE@BUF	1.2
Marshawn Lynch	$8500	SEA@GB	9	Rashad Jennings	$6400	ATL@NYG	1.1
Jeremy Hill	$8400	SD@CIN	7.9	Dion Lewis	$5200	NE@BUF	0.9
Darren Sproles	$5600	DAL@PHI	7.1	Frank Gore	$7000	NYJ@IND	0.8
Lamar Miller	$7300	MIA@JAC	6.5	Latavius Murray	$6800	BAL@OAK	0.7
DeMarco Murray	$8300	DAL@PHI	5.9	David Johnson	$6600	ARI@CHI	0.7
Eddie Lacy	$8100	SEA@GB	4.3	Tre Mason	$7200	STL@WAS	0.4
DeAngelo Williams	$7400	SF@PIT	3.6	T.J. Yeldon	$6500	MIA@JAC	0.4
Adrian Peterson	$9000	DET@MIN	3.1	Ryan Mathews	$5700	DAL@PHI	0.3
Joseph Randle	$6700	DAL@PHI	3	Terrance West	$5300	TEN@CLE	0.1

We hear there’s a nice Airbnb for rent in Philadelphia on Narrative Street. It’s fully furnished with No. 1 running back upside and revenge-game potential. Yes, DeMarco Murray has more to play for this week than normal. Yes, he had the third lowest yardage total of his career last week. He also is riding the longest touchdown streak for any running back in the league. The last time he failed to find the end zone was against the Jaguars back on November 9^th. That’s eight consecutive games (h/t Mark Eckel). We expected his ownership to be higher than what the Thursday numbers are telling us, but regardless, he is in for a huge game on Sunday. And not just because he’s playing against the team that refused to pay him. He is a perfect fit for Kelly’s system and will be a lock for several catches and yards, and if even when those numbers are low, he’s a constant multi-touchdown threat. You could do a lot worse for $8,300.

You can read the rest here.

Follow @justinbonnema

Medical Check

There are a lot of injuries going into week 2 of the NFL season. Some big headliners include Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, Jordan Reed, and T.Y. Hilton. How should you handle them and their teammates in your lineups this week? Check out what Jene Bramel and I had to say here.

Fades and Loss Leaders: Week 2

Each week, in a feature titled "The Fade", we'll gather Thursday night ownership percentages and identify a few players we'll want to avoid and a few bandwagons we'll want to jump on. Here is an excerpt from this week:

Player	Salary	Game	Own %	Player	Salary	Game	Own %
Josh Brown	$4500	ATL@NYG	13.7	Adam Vinatieri	$5000	NYJ@IND	2.6
Matt Bryant	$5000	ATL@NYG	9	Mason Crosby	$5100	SEA@GB	2.5
Zach Hocker	$4500	TB@NO	8.8	Greg Zuerlein	$4800	STL@WAS	2.2
Stephen Gostkowski	$5200	NE@BUF	4	Dan Carpenter	$4800	NE@BUF	2
Justin Tucker	$5200	BAL@OAK	4	Chandler Catanzaro	$4700	ARI@CHI	1.8
Dan Bailey	$5000	DAL@PHI	4	Cody Parkey	$5000	DAL@PHI	1.5
Robbie Gould	$4800	ARI@CHI	3.9	Mike Nugent	$4800	SD@CIN	1.2
Steven Hauschka	$5100	SEA@GB	2.6	Phil Dawson	$5000	SF@PIT	0.7

Like last week, we’re not going over think things here. Josh Brown is the crowd favorite. The Giants offense suggests we should fade the crowd, so we will. In fact, fade all of these kickers and start Greg Zuerlein.

Wait... an excerpt about kickers? What a jerk. You can read the rest here.

Follow @justinbonnema